Reviewing Steamer and I: A.J. Pollock

The last of the hitter Steamer and I reviews is upon us, as I recap how my Pod Projection compared to Steamer’s preseason forecast, and how both systems performed against what actually transpired. I was significantly more bullish about A.J. Pollock’s 2015 prospects than Steamer was. In fact, out of all full-time players, the difference between the two Pollock forecasts was the greatest.

Who knew Pollock would go on to finish as the second most valuable outfielder and overall hitter?!

In the review of this series, I will be including my original Pod Projection, plus the Steamer counting stat projections extrapolated over the same number of plate appearances that I had projected. Also included are the player’s actual 2015 stats, plus the counting stats extrapolated over the number of PA I projected.

Steamer and I: A.J. Pollock

System	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	ISO	BABIP
Pod	33	7	13	39	87	0.283	0.336	0.450	0.343	0.167	0.320
Steamer	26	6	9	34	88	0.260	0.310	0.393	0.311	0.133	0.296
2015	39	6	20	53	89	0.315	0.367	0.498	0.371	0.182	0.338
2015 – 550 PA	32	5	16	43	73

Heading into the 2015 season, the Diamondbacks had a glut of third base and outfield candidates. So Pollock’s playing time was a bit up in the air. Although we figured he’d be nearly full-time, it was no sure thing. So that explains why I forecasted just 550 plate appearances, while he actually came to the plate 673 times. For easier comparisons, we’ll stick to comparing the two projection sets to the 550 plate appearance performance.

For some reason, Steamer projected Pollock’s doubles rate to decline precipitously. I questioned it in my original post and his performance validated my confusion. His 39 doubles tied for 11th in baseball and I essentially nailed the projection over my playing time estimate. Both systems came in similarly for triples, but Pollock ended up recording the same number this year as he did in 43% of the plate appearances. Perhaps a couple of 2014’s triples sailed over the wall in 2015.

Steamer and I were nearly identical in our strikeout rate projections, as we didn’t foresee Pollock improving as dramatically as he did. He strikeout rate dropped from 16% to 13.2% from 2014 to 2015, though his SwStk% remained unchanged. That’s probably because he swung more often this year. When you make contact as well as Pollock does, swinging more will benefit your strikeout rate. The additional swings didn’t hurt his walk rate though, as that actually rose above his 2013 and 2014 season marks. I had projected an increase from 2014, but only a marginal one.

Not surprisingly, we disagreed most in the power department. In 2014, Pollock’s ISO surged to .196, from just .140 the prior year. Naturally, any forecasting system is going to project regression, but just how much was the key. On the one hand, his batted ball distance was just average in 2014 and actually slightly lower than his 2013 mark. On the other hand, his batted ball distance actually supported a HR/FB rate around the league average, which he posted in 2014, not the lowly 6.6% mark he posted in 2013. So it appeared that 2013 was the fluke, not 2014. Therefore, while I did indeed project some power regression, I bet that he was able to maintain significantly more of that power output than Steamer did. Sure enough, Pollock’s batted ball distance jumped 13 feet and fully supports the HR/FB rate spike. Whether it’s sustainable in a question for another day, but it validates what he did this year.

The other area of disagreement was in Pollock’s BABIP. His 2013 and 2014 marks didn’t exactly appear real as it seemed like he benefited from some good fortune. So I projected some regression from his 2014, but not too much given Chase Field’s doubles and triples inflationary characteristics and Pollock’s strong minor league BABIP record. I’m not sure what led to Steamer’s pessimistic forecast. And looking at its 2016 projection, it’s clear the system is still hesitant to get fully on board the Pollock BABIP train.

Pollock is going to be taken in the first round of many league drafts or paid elite level auction dollars in 2016. Nothing in his 2015 performance seems fluky. However, he notched what are likely going to ultimately be career bests in nearly every category, so there is seemingly only downside from here. Since a lot of his value is driven by his steals, I would also be quite hesitant to forecast another 30+ swipes. After all that, I haven’t even touched on the 111 runs scored, third highest total in baseball, or the 76 RBI, despite hitting first or second the majority of the season. He’s unlikely to be a bust in the traditional sense, but I’d be surprised if he actually earns what he’s paid in the vast majority of leagues.