Chris Coghlan & When You Should Pick Prospects in a Redraft

Thirty-year old Chris Coghlan just had his best season of his career. He’s only surpassed 500 plate appearances twice in his seven-year career, and as a guy without a standout tool and some established platoon issues, he obviously owns a substantial ‘bust rate.’ As in, he could be unusable next year, even though he was worth $6 in mixed leagues this past season.

And so, even though we liked some boring veterans at third base, it’s time to take inspiration in another direction — where’s the line, when you should bypass the veteran for the unproven prospect? Is it right around a guy like Chris Coghlan?

The bust rate on all top 100 prospects is 47%, meaning that almost half the time you don’t even get a player capable of putting up a half win over replacement. There are very few fantasy players that can’t put up a half win over replacement, and those kinds of players don’t usually hold on to their major league jobs to continue giving fantasy value.

Let’s put aside relievers and pitchers in general and focus on top hitting prospects. A top ten hitting prospect has a 37% bust rate, and a 40% superior rate. That means a prospect like consensus top ten prospect J.P. Crawford has a 37% chance of not being worth a win and a half in his average major league season. He also has a 40% chance of being worth more than 2.5 wins a year on average.

Back to the outfielders. Obviously, transferring WAR research to fantasy is imprecise. But at least the best fantasy outfielders are basically the best outfielders. The top 30 last season averaged 4.3 WAR. The next 30 averaged 1.8 WAR. And then the last 30, or the iffy bets, averaged 1.3 WAR and would be ‘busts’ by our prospect system. They had value in fantasy, though.

Then again, we’re all aiming to get top 60 outfielders in our 15-team leagues, even if we have five slots. Drafting Nori Aoki and getting Nori Aoki is exactly the thing we are talking about here, too. He has no ceiling and yet he also has a major league veteran’s bust rate. What happens if we apply our bust rate work to an outfielder like Nomar Mazara?

Rough WAR Projection by Percentile, Mazara vs Coghlan

	Mazara	Coghlan
30th	1	.5
60th	2	1
90th	3	2

It’s just a mental exercise, not something we’re doing with precision. And we’re not looking at Mazara in particular when we fill in this chart, we’re just calling on past outcomes to prospects of his stature. Because we’re using a 50th-percentile Steamer projection for Coghlan (.7 WAR), the percentiles don’t line up well to make him look good. But it certainly looks like you want Mazara between the two.

But there is one last variable that changes things. The bust rate work doesn’t care if the guy makes it this year or next year — if he makes it, he’s not a bust. Redraft fantasy players need to know about *this* year. And if you give Mazara anything less than a 50% chance of getting 500 plate appearances this year, suddenly the weights flip in the opposite direction and Coghlan is the better play.

And the league format really matters. If you’re in an NL-only league, having a higher percentage likelihood of performing at all might trump the upside — in other words, floor becomes more important the worse your waiver wire looks after your draft. If you draft Mazara over Coghlan in that 30-team league, you’re playing Adam Duvall in a starting outfielder slot (if you’re lucky) and crossing your fingers hard. If you make that move in your 15-team league, you slot Mazara on to your bench and pick up David Peralta or Colby Rasmus and hoping your top prospect comes up before July 15th.

The main takeaway here is that every player has a bust rate, best represented by a low percentile projection. Even a decent major leaguer can have a terrible year. The closer the player is to the fringe, the more likely it is that the terrible year will be unusable in your league. So, when you’re debating fringe draft choices in leagues with decent waiver wires, it is probably time to pick the prospect. He may have a slightly higher bust rate, but he also looks better on the top end.

For outfielders, specifically, the top 60 seems sturdy. But the last thirty, the group that averaged less than a win and a half this year? Those guys are more interchangeable, and a hot prospect should be the better investment in anything but your deepest leagues.