The New Sneaky Good Phillies Outfielders

Once upon a time, I was a Phillies fan. I grew up in a mostly empty Veteran’s Stadium watching Doug Glanville and Wendell Magee and Rico Brogna. Occasionally, my past links to Philadelphia help my fantasy rosters. That happened this year with Odubel Herrera and Aaron Altherr.

Herrera was a guy who showed up in my bold predictions. I had targeted him last February in a dynasty league slow draft. I originally considered selecting him with our second round pick (we keep 28), but we ultimately held off picking him until the end of the draft – the 17th round with nearly 900 players taken.

For us early bandwagon hoppers, there were two reasons to believe in Herrera. The Phillies were going to be terrible. As befits a terrible team, they were going to give some unusual players a chance to start. Herrera, a Rule 5 pick, was in line for the first shot. He also exhibited enough power and speed in the past to promise some fantasy value.

The end result exceeded my expectations. Fueled by a .387 BABIP, Herrera hit .297/.344/.418 with eight home runs and 16 stolen bases in 537 plate appearances. He had useful position eligibilities last season, but he’ll be an outfield only player next year.

Herrera is a spray hitter which keeps the defense honest. Just from eyeballing his spray chart, he’s slightly shiftable on the right side. Second basemen can relinquish some space up the middle. He definitely hits for better power to his pull side even though he’s willing to go to the opposite field. Overall, Herrera has a history of high BABIPs. He may not repeat his .387 rate, but he should outperform league average.

If Herrera improves, it will be by trimming his strikeout rate. In the minors, he never struck out more than 18 percent of the time. Last season, he had a 24 percent strikeout rate. Given that he jumped from Double-A to the majors, it’s fair to wonder if he was slightly overmatched. A few adjustments could get him back to his minor league contact rates.

Entering his age 24 season, Herrera is expected to remain the Phillies everyday center fielder. Despite a lack of experience in the outfield, he posted 9.9 UZR and a team best 3.9 WAR in 147 games. With 10 home run and 20 steal potential, he’ll offer decent fantasy value.

His teammate Altherr was freely available for most of the season. That held true in the aforementioned dynasty league where I snagged him in July in anticipation of the Ben Revere trade. Altherr, soon-to-be 25, offers an interesting profile.

He fell off prospect lists prior to last season. Originally, scouts loved his athleticism even though his baseball skills were shaky. He definitely matched the Phillies former scouting profile. While most of the Phillies mega-athletes never developed, Altherr slowly climbed his way up the ladder.

In Double- and Triple-A, he hit 14 home runs and stole 16 bases in 449 plate appearances while posting a .293/.367/.487 slash. Nothing looked fluky about his BABIP or power numbers.

The combination of speed and power remained upon reaching the majors, but the helium fell out of his average. He hit five home runs and stole six bases in 161 plate appearances. He still walked at a 10 percent rate, leading to a .241/.338/.489 line. He was a balanced hitter last year, but most of his opposite field contact resulted in easy outs (see Spray Chart).

A 25.5 percent strikeout rate is the biggest issue with his profile at the plate. However, he’s generally improved his strikeout numbers upon a second exposure to a level. In 2014, he was punched out 22.4 percent in Double-A. When he returned in 2015, he posted a 15.4 percent strikeout rate.

Despite the unhyped arrival, Altherr doesn’t have to improve to become a valuable real or fantasy player. His athleticism translates to plus defense including an ability to play center field if Herrera falters. Altherr is also a reasonable bet to reach the 20/20 threshold.

I see Altherr as this year’s Steven Souza. As we saw this year, Souza himself proved the downside of overpaying for that sort of player. Not everything goes according to plan. However, Souza hadn’t really succeeded in the majors when we started hyping him. Altherr already has experienced some major league success.

If you were drafting today, both Herrera and Altherr would be available late. I fully expect Altherr to climb target lists as we get closer to the season. Herrera should remain easier to acquire since his upside is less flashy.

The Phillies have every reason to play them both with regularity. There is still some risk that another Rule 5 pick – perhaps Jabari Blash – along with other internal options like Darnell Sweeney, Andres Blanco, Cesar Hernandez, or Cody Asche could complicate the picture. We’ll be constantly adjusting our expectations for Altherr and Herrera this offseason.