Reviewing Steamer and I: Corey Dickerson

The Steamer and I reviews continue this week, which pits a player’s preseason Pod Projection against his Steamer projection. Today, I’ll review 2014 breakout Corey Dickerson, who unfortunately saw his plate appearance total cut in half due to various injuries. I was far more bullish on his prospects than Steamer was.

In the review of this series, I will be including my original Pod Projection, plus the Steamer counting stat projections extrapolated over the same number of plate appearances that I had projected. Also included are the player’s actual 2015 stats, plus the counting stats extrapolated over the number of PA I projected.

Steamer and I: Corey Dickerson

System	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	ISO	BABIP
Pod	31	6	26	41	111	0.298	0.350	0.537	0.382	0.239	0.335
Steamer	29	6	22	37	107	0.285	0.334	0.499	0.360	0.214	0.321
2015	18	2	10	10	56	0.304	0.333	0.536	0.371	0.232	0.367
2015 – 550 PA	42	5	24	24	132

After a breakout 2014 performance, Dickerson was limited to just 234 plate appearances this year. Thanks to plantar fasciitis in his left foot, he endured two separate disabled list stints that totaled about two months, and then missed another five weeks with fractured ribs sustained while diving for a line drive. So naturally, our counting stat projections proved way off.

Starting with our doubles projection, Dickerson outpaced both our expectations. In 2014, he hit doubles at a respectable clip, but this year he would have tied for sixth most in baseball if he stayed at that pace and accumulated the 550 plate appearances I had forecasted. Steamer and I both projected Dickerson to leg out six triples and we would have been close if he had remained healthy.

Of course, Dickerson had to split the difference between the two home run projections. His HR/FB rate was just below his 2014 mark, but his fly ball rate dropped and strikeout rate increased, which led to him falling short of my home run projection (if we assume the 550 plate appearances, of course). His batted ball distance remained strong and actually spiked by about eight feet, jumping over the 300 barrier to 308 feet.

Where Steamer and I were most off was his walk and strikeout rates. His walk rate was nearly cut in half this season as he swung more often and made less contact. That means more strikeouts and fewer walks, which is precisely what happened. Dickerson had never been the most patient of hitters, but this year’s puny 4.3% walk rate was easily his lowest as a professional. Besides reducing his batting average and on base percentage, those additional strikeouts and fewer walks hurt his ability to drive in runners and tally runs scored.

My batting average projection was pretty darn close and closer than Steamer’s, but for the wrong reasons. Dickerson once again posted an inflated BABIP, which was certainly not a level any system was going to project. So he outperformed both system’s projections, though my more bullish BABIP was closer. That BABIP was fueled by a fantastic batted ball type distribution heavy on line drives. Despite that BABIP outperformance, I didn’t miss the batting average by much because of the higher strikeout rate that Dickerson posted than I projected. Similarly, Steamer was closer on Dickerson’s on base percentage, but also for the wrong reasons. We both expected more walks, but here Steamer’s lower projected batting average was actually a benefit in coming closer on the OBP forecast.

The biggest driver of our projection difference was in the ISO and SLG rates. To put it simply, I was a stronger believer in Dickerson’s big power than Steamer was. I’d like to think that was partly due to the additional data I use, such as my xHR/FB equation which utilizes fly ball and home run batted ball distance. I was almost right on the money on his ISO and essentially nailed his SLG. At age 26 and with 300+ batted ball distance to his name, his power should continue at this level.

It figures that Dickerson also split the uprights in wOBA. He finished perfectly in between the two projections, though that wOBA would have been higher if he had posted a walk rate closer to his historical marks. I’m not sure why I didn’t include our two stolen base projections, but clearly both systems would have been wrong considering Dickerson failed to swipe even one base this season and only made one attempt. It would be fair to assume that accelerating bothered his foot and didn’t feel it worthwhile to put unnecessary stress on it. Whether he is completely recovered from his plantar fasciitis next season is anyone’s guess, but he should rebound in the steals department if he is.

Because of his partial season, Dickerson might come at a reasonable cost next year and offer some profit potential.