The beginning of the season can be a tough time to use points per game (P/G) marks to make sit/start decisions in Ottoneu. For example, a player like Alex Bregman is only producing 2.34 P/G this season, well below the current* replacement level cut-line (5.03 P/G) for third basemen in the early season. But, Alex Bregman’s average salary is nearly $30 and you probably don’t feel comfortable letting $30 sit on the bench every day. Then again, plug a player like Josh Rojas in your lineup and you’re collecting a very solid 5.92 P/G, well above the current replacement level cut-line for third basemen. Yesterday, in my “Ottoneu: Hot Right Now” article, I wrote about Rojas and the skills he has displayed in the early season. He could be on the verge of a breakout and may overtake Bregman by the end of the season. But he may also just be “Hot Right Now”. So, how do you make the right decisions on who to play now using P/G in the early season?

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The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

As Chad Young has done in previous posts, I am also going to rate each player on the following scale:

• Don’t Bother – This means that even as auctions are started, other teams are adding this player, or he is on a hot streak, I am just not interested in adding this player. I don’t see them being worth a roster spot.
• Don’t Stress – I can see why you would add this player. I can totally understand placing a bid, but I am not super worried about winning this player. I would bid $1 for sure, maybe a bit more, as long as it doesn’t impact my roster at all.
• Don’t Go Crazy – I would like to add this player, but I am not willing to hamper my team to do it. I’ll look for cuts, and if I can clear money to make a big bid without losing players I’ll regret cutting, I will do it.
• Don’t Lose – These players rarely come up but they do, from time-to-time. These are guys that I am willing to make a difficult cut to add. Don’t expect to see this designation used often.

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Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

NOTE: Today’s post reflects data through Saturday, May 4th (does not include stats from Sunday, 5/5)

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Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• There are a bunch of teams with two off days next week: the Blue Jays, Braves, Nationals, Orioles, Red Sox. These teams may take the extra rest day to reset their rotation so keep an eye on their announced starters to make sure the matchups are where you want them.
• The Rangers and A’s have a scheduled double-header on Wednesday and both teams will need to call up a spot starter. Texas will likely give Jack Leiter his second big league start and it comes against a surprisingly decent Oakland ballclub.
• It’s possible we’ll see the activations of Walker Buehler, Justin Steele, Nick Pivetta, Frankie Montas, Bryan Woo, and Braxton Garrett next week. Those pitching staffs will be in flux as they figure out how to fit those injured pitchers back into the rotation.
• The Blue Jays and Nationals have a tough week ahead. Toronto travels to Philadelphia for a couple of games before hosting the red hot Twins. The Nationals have a two-game Beltway series on tap and then will travel to Boston and the cozy confines of Fenway Park.

A month into the season, I start to feel itchy. Those slow starts are now harder to write off. Those impressive early numbers feel less early. And I start to look for data I can aggressively act on. One of the best places to look is where projections have changed. Humans can be easily fooled by random variance that looks like a pattern. Computers are better at finding the signal amongst the noise.

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The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

As we have done in previous posts, I am also going to rate each player on the following scale:

• Don’t Bother – This means that even as auctions are started, other teams are adding this player, or he is on a hot streak, I am just not interested in adding this player. I don’t see them being worth a roster spot.
• Don’t Stress – I can see why you would add this player. I can totally understand placing a bid, but I am not super worried about winning this player. I would bid $1 for sure, maybe a bit more, as long as it doesn’t impact my roster at all.
• Don’t Go Crazy – I would like to add this player, but I am not willing to hamper my team to do it. I’ll look for cuts, and if I can clear money to make a big bid without losing players I’ll regret cutting, I will do it.
• Don’t Lose – These players rarely come up but they do, from time-to-time. These are guys that I am willing to make a difficult cut to add. Don’t expect to see this designation used often.

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Thursday morning at 4 am ET, Ottoneu Prestige League rosters were updated, as discussed in my article last week about my OPL rosters. If you participate in OPL, you probably already looked at what changed and spent a lot of time thinking about who to add, who to cut, and why.

But even if you don’t play OPL, there are some interesting insights to be gathered from looking at the most added and dropped players in OPL.

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Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

NOTE: Today’s post reflects data through Saturday, April 27th (does not include stats from Sunday, 4/28)

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings.

A few general schedule notes:

• Simply based on the way the schedules lined up, it looks like there are a ton of teams who have a pair of easy opponents next week: the A’s, Cardinals, Marlins, Pirates and Rockies all look like they’ve got easily exploitable matchups. The problem is that those teams don’t have completely trustworthy starting rotations to begin with, which means there are still some risky plays despite the opponents.
• I’d be comfortable starting anyone from the Marlins rotation in their series against the Rockies and A’s and they’ll also need callup fill-ins for two spot starts next week. It probably won’t be Braxton Garrett as he’s still working back from his shoulder injury, but keep an eye on his progress as Miami might activate him off the IL early to make one of those starts next week.
• This is one of the few opportunities to go ahead and start any Rockies starters you might be rostering since they’re on the road playing two weak offenses (but let’s be honest, that’s probably not likely). I actually think Ryan Feltner is a sneaky streaming play since he has a two-start week and has been pretty decent this year.
• On the flip side, the Giants and Mariners have two pretty tough matchups on the docket next week. San Francisco travels to Boston and Philadelphia and Logan Webb seems like the only matchup-proof starter in their rotation (and he has a double-start week too). The Mariners have the harder task of hosting the Braves and then traveling to Houston. Their cadre of aces have been absolutely dominant recently, but it’s a tall ask to face two of the best offenses in baseball.

Year three of the Ottoneu Prestige League is off to a great start and with the new rules for 2024, late April is suddenly a very interesting time. For the first time, OPL is giving managers a chance to re-shape their roster in the middle of a round.

For those new to OPL, it’s a best-ball competition open to any team that finished in the top half of a standard Ottoneu league the year before. One of the unique rules, though, is that your roster for OPL locks at the start of each round – any adds, drops, or trades you make after that don’t impact your OPL roster.

But this morning, at 4 a.m. ET, all OPL rosters were re-set. Any adds, drops and trades processed over the last few weeks since Opening Day will be reflected in your OPL roster. And that has created a bit of a learning opportunity.

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