Ottoneu: Lucas’ Keep or Cut Decisions at SP Part II

Part one of my starting pitcher keep/cut articles had me diving deep on pitchers who have shown major league success but hadn’t yet instilled themselves in any major league rotation with consistency yet. That’s what we’re really after. But it takes time for pitchers to get there and you have to decide first, how long you’re willing to wait, and second, at what price.
Replacement level SP (84 rostered): 4.50 P/IP*
*No matter what number I set as the replacement level, it’s argued against. If you think 4.50 P/IP is too high, drop it down and use that number to compare the “Proj 2025 P/IP” listed for each player.
2024 Keep/Cut: C – CI – MI – OF.1 – OF.2 – SP.1 – SP.2
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Joey Cantillo, SP
Salary: $4
Average Salary: $5
2024 P/IP: 4.25
Proj 2025 P/IP: 4.14
If you like Joey Cantillo for 2025 you will be disappointed to see there’s no space for him in the Guardians’ rotation to start the season. But you may also take note that the Guardians rotation is full of right-handed pitchers and that Cantillo is the team’s best lefty in AAA. That’s arguable. Lefties like Logan Allen, Doug Nikhazy, Will Dion, and Ryan Webb are all likely to bounce up and down from the minors to the majors in 2025. You might choose to cut Cantillo based on his potential for his innings. But, had you watched Cantillo at all last season, you may have seen him do something like this with his changeup:
Absolutely dotted! A changeup to a same-handed hitter? That’s a little unconventional, no? Let’s look at his arsenal splits:
FourSeamer | Changeup | Curveball | Slider | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Usage vL | 52.7% | 15.2% | 10.9% | 21.2% |
SwStr% vL | 8.2% | 10.7% | 20.0% | 30.8% |
MLB Avg. SwStr% | 9.6% | 14.0% | 11.8% | 15.0% |
FourSeamer | Changeup | Curveball | Slider | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Usage vR | 47.4% | 31.9% | 16.7% | 4.0% |
SwStr% vR | 9.2% | 20.8% | 10.2% | 9.5% |
MLB Avg. SwStr% | 9.6% | 14.0% | 11.8% | 15.0% |
First, we can see that Cantillo threw the changeup to lefties a fair amount. It did not get above-average swinging strikes or called strikes against lefties, but against all hitters, the changeup earned an incredible 32.1% called strikes plus whiffs (CSW%). That’s mostly a product of the pitches’ success against righties. But you may feel less excited about Cantillo’s short-term potential without a fastball to pair it with. He threw a sub-par fastball too often in 2024, a pitch that garnered less than league-average swinging strikes against both lefties and righties.
Let’s move on to the breaking balls. You’ll see that Cantillo threw an excellent curveball to same-handed batters (lefties), and a very-successful slider against those same-handed batters. Unfortunately, Cantillo didn’t necessarily dominate lefties:
vsL.: 42 TBF, 3.12 HR/9, .324/.405/.622
vsR.: 121 TBF, 0.90 HR/9, .209/.273/.373
That 3.12 HR/9 explains only three home runs to lefties, but let’s look at those three pitches:
Again, the fastball is suspect. There’s hope for Cantillo. Can he develop a better fastball? Can he lean on his breaking balls more often? Are they good enough to throw for strikes? Can he lower his BB%? There are too many questions to keep at $4 without a spot in the rotation. But, drop and re-auction because the potential is there.
Keep or cut?
Cut.
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Rhett Lowder, SP
Salary: $4
Average Salary: $5
2024 P/IP: 5.35
Proj 2025 P/IP: 3.42
At the age of 22 years old, Rhett Lowder experienced nearly every level of minor league baseball in 2024. Then, he was brought up to the big leagues for 30.2 innings where he recorded a 1.17 ERA. However, that 1.17 ERA came with a 4.34 ERA, a .272 BABIP, and a 10.9% walk rate. Like Cantillo, Lowder does not have a spot in the rotation for 2025, but he’s not far. Unlike Cantillo, Lowder has had more success earning strikes at the big league level with his fastball. Its 12.1% SwStr% in 2025 was greater than the 9.6% MLB average (all hitters). Like Cantillo, Lowder is changeup heavy. He threw the pitch 19% of the time in 2025. But, even with that 19%, it was his least utilized pitch. From a Stuff+ perspective, it is well above average. So here’s a pseudo-code comp:
Lowder: average-to-good fastball, great changeup
Cantillo: bad fastball, great changeup
Don’t count on Lowder for 2025, but hold on to the potential if you’re in the right salary situation going into 2025 and you’re rostering him for below average. The truth is that Lowder got lucky in 2024. But a little bit of luck in a small sample can be a real confidence builder for a young pitcher. He has raw metrics that back up his success beyond luck. He came up, threw the baseball to major leaguers, and struck out 22 of them. It’s not enough to expect more than the ~120 IP he’s projected for in 2025, but it’s enough to play the gamble and hold game. Me? I’m cutting and hoping I can sneak him back onto my roster for $1-$2.
Keep or cut?
Cut.
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Gavin Williams, SP
Salary: $6
Average Salary: $7
2024 P/IP: 4.50
Proj 2025 P/IP:
In a rotation full of righties, Gavin Williams is right…(pause for dramatic effect)…in the middle. The middle is a strange place to be. The younger ones get all the attention and the older ones are all, “Don’t mess with the baby or I’ll pound you!” But Gavin Williams has enough fastball pop with both his cutter and four-seamer to make even his hypothetical older brothers take a step back. Certainly, hitters did in 2024. His cutter’s 17.1% SwStr% did better than the league average (10.7%, PitcherList) on the pitch. It was a pitch he added in 2024 and it’s break profile played nicely off his four-seamer:
Source: Statcast
How did his breaking balls perform off those two heaters?
Pitch | CStr% | SwStr% | Stuff+ |
---|---|---|---|
Slider (SL) | 20.0 | 10.3 | 95 |
Avg. | 14.5 | 15.0 | 115 |
Curveball (CU) | 13.3 | 12.5 | 121 |
Avg. | 19.2 | 11.8 | 106 |
Changeup (CH) | 13.5 | 5.4 | 66 |
Avg. | 9.3 | 14.0 | 95 |
So, two good fastballs and offspeed/breaking balls he can record strikes with? Count. Me. In! Amongst all the pitchers I have rostered I’m just hoping for one or two things to come together for, Gavin Williams is a breath of fresh air in the summer humidity that we are all actually craving right now, as the long winter nights force two pairs of socks onto the feet of warm-blooded baseball fans. Though you may feel the chills of William’s elbow injury history, his 2024 IP mark of 76.0 fell short of his 2023 mark of 82.0 because of it, all pitchers carry injury risk. Don’t let the cold of winter keep you from enjoying the warm summer sun.
Keep or cut?
Keep.
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Max Meyer, SP
Salary: $5
Average Salary: $5
2024 P/IP: 2.01
Proj 2025 P/IP: 3.91
Will Meyer, not to be confused with Wil Myers, become a full-time starter in 2025? The Marlins think so. At the age of 25, for Ottoneu managers, he needs to. We just haven’t seen him in the major leagues yet. He threw 6.0 innings in 2023 and 57.0 innings in 2024. Over the 63.0 combined innings, his ERA sits at 5.86. But his better-than-average BB% (7.7%) and close-to-average K% (19.0%) look pretty darn good. RosterResource considers him the 5th starter in the rotation for 2025 and Steamer thinks he’s worth 138 IP this coming season.
I’m going to simplify this for myself and maybe for you too. If Meyer had a better fastball (Stuff+: 83), earned a better K/9 (7.43 career), had more than one pitch (Slider, 119 vs. 115 avg.) with a Stuff+ mark greater than average, and had more than three pitches (slider, four-seam, changeup) in his arsenal, I’d keep. But, he doesn’t. So I’m out at $5. Spring training will be very telling and he’ll have to show out for me to be interested in the re-auction.
Keep or cut?
Cut.