Jeff wrote a great piece earlier today on bad hitters who go early in drafts. These are often speedsters who can be huge pieces to a fantasy lineup or find themselves out of a job six weeks into the season. I figured I would do a quick follow up on the other ends of the spectrum and identify 10 players going later (150+ ADP) with OPS totals at .800 or better.

Only one of these guys will do anything for your SB count, but that doesn’t mean they can’t be drafted with Jeff’s speedsters to offset their OPS struggles.

Read the rest of this entry »

On Friday, it was reported that Eddie Rosario, career Minnesota Twin, had signed a one-year contract with the division rival Indians. Is there a strong perception about either of these parks and their affects on offense? I don’t think so, unless you’re super familiar with park factors. However, just because it’s more difficult to guess off the top of our head like Yankee Stadium’s home run boosting power, doesn’t mean there’s no change in factors. So let’s consult them and see how Rosario’s offense might be affected.

Read the rest of this entry »

Today, I finish reviewing my hitter Pod Projections versus Steamer projections comparisons, ending with the stolen base downside guys. These are the hitters who I forecasted a significantly higher PA/SB rate than Steamer. Let’s see how they ended up performing.

Read the rest of this entry »

Calling someone a flop in two-month season requires some serious caveats, air quotes around “flop”, or both. That doesn’t mean there weren’t several disappointing players that deserve a deeper look to see what’s going on. We will investigate some of them today and if you find this exercise worthwhile, we can make it a series!

• Part 1
• Part 2

Miguel Sanó | MIN – 1B – 99 wRC+

Sano wasn’t exactly a complete dud for his teams in 2020, essentially amounting a league average bat, but the expectations were a good bit higher as he was coming off a 137 wRC+ in 2019 and 121 career mark through 2019 (2051). His 13 HRs put him among the top 30 in baseball and was tied for the 8th highest total. They saved his season in the wake of a .204 AVG and 44% K rate. The AVG was only his second worst (.199 in 2018), but the strikeout (44%) and walk (9%) rates were career worsts.

His raw power still delivered a rosy StatCast profile, sitting in the 99-100th percentile in Barrel, HardHit%, and Exit Velocity. We have seen runs like this before, the difference now is that it’s a “season”. This feels more like the ebbs and flows of this profile. His ADP of 192 since the New Year is more than fair. It both leaves plenty of room for upside and affords you enough rounds before you have to pick him to insulate yourself from his batting average issues should you want to take on the power infusion. The downside and health issues are covered within this draft price. Buy.

Josh Bell | WAS – 1B – 77 wRC+

On the heels of an excellent 2019 breakout, expectations were high for Bell going into 2020. He didn’t just regress back to 2018, he fell apart with a .669 OPS, 27% K rate, and 10% BB rate in 223 PA – all of which stand as single season worsts for Bell, but there is no way I’m weighing anyone’s 2020 as a truly full season. Even in his 2019 breakout he had a stretch that wasn’t too far off his entire 2020. From July 6th to August 27th, he posted a .688 OPS in 170 PA, though his 21% K and 14% BB rates were much more in line with his career marks (19% and 11%, respectively).

Bell has moved up 20 picks since his trade to Washington, currently sitting at pick 163. That’s still ahead of Sano, Rhys Hoskins (173), Christian Walker (197), and Jared Walsh (199) – all of whom I prefer over Bell. As such, I’m just passing on him here. I don’t put a return to 2019 levels out of the realm of possibilities, but it’s a low probability play with some combination of 2018-19 looking more likely which would yield a .260s AVG with a mid-20s HR count, and a strong chance to be north of 80 in both R and RBI. That is a pretty solid projection, but I just prefer the potential power output from the other four, especially with them all being cheaper.

—

What do you think? Are you buying back in on these two? What is your general plan at 1B?

Today, we review the last of my hitting projections comparisons between my 2020 Pod Projections and Steamer. We move along to stolen base, where like I did for home runs, I turned it into a ratio, this time of plate appearances. That way playing time forecasts won’t influence the comparison. We begin with my review of the stolen base upside guys. Do note that I seem to be consistently lower on stolen base forecasts than Steamer, so this list isn’t very long.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I reviewed my home run upside list, where I compared my Pod Projections to Steamer using AB/HR rate. Today, let’s now review my home run downside list.

Read the rest of this entry »

Toward the end of last February, about a month before many of us went into lockdown and the season was delayed indefinitely, I compared my home run Pod Projections to Steamer. I didn’t want playing time differences to influence the list, so rather than straight home run forecasts, I calculated the respective AB/HR rates and compared those. Then for fun, I calculated what a 600 at-bat home run projection would look like at each of the projections’ AB/HR marks. Let’s begin by reviewing the upside guys, with a caveat that some of my projections may have changed slightly since publishing, and, of course, the small sample size of the season means we’re both likely going to end up being very wrong on a lot of these names.

Read the rest of this entry »

On Tuesday, it was reported that George Springer agreed to sign with the Blue Jays, finally marking the first big free agent signing of the offseason. Springer has spent his entire career in Houston, where has surprisingly posted a lower wOBA than in away parks. Let’s check out the park factors to see if the change in home park might affect his results.

Read the rest of this entry »

1/15/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host/Producer

2021 STEAMER GEMS

• Franmil Reyes (2:43)
• Jesse Winker (7:22)
• Brandon Nimmo (13:36)
• Alejandro Kirk (18:35)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Today, I finish up reviewing my 2020 Forecast BABIP lists with the BABIP decliners. Once again, I used my xBABIP equation to identify the hitters who most outperformed their xBABIP marks in 2019. Now let’s see how they performed over the short 2020 season.

Read the rest of this entry »