Hitter xwOBA Overperformers — June 30, 2021

Yesterday, I listed and discussed the hitters with at least 200 PA who have most underperformed their xwOBA marks. Today, let’s now flip to the overperformers, those who have posted wOBA marks most above their xwOBA marks.

With Vidal Bruján still patiently waiting for his MLB callup, sitting atop the xwOBA overperformer list isn’t a good place to be for Joey Wendle. A career best HR/FB rate and ISO have pushed his wOBA up to a career best, but an xwOBA below .300 suggests the results have been far better than deserved. However, if you review his historical wOBA vs xwOBA marks, you will notice that he has typically outperformed his xwOBA marks. In fact, for his short career, he sports an acceptable .322 wOBA, but a measly .299 xwOBA. That kind of outperformance suggests Wendle might be doing something that is missed by the xwOBA calculation. That said, I would still caution that 1,364 PA isn’t a clearly large enough sample to make the determination he’s an inherent xwOBA outperformer. That’s basically two full seasons and I would expect we would need more to be sure. Still, it’s likely he’s better than xwOBA suggests, but his job will remain at risk if a slump hits and the Rays decide to recall Bruján.

Well duh, Tucker Barnhart’s .383 BABIP isn’t real. It’s actually a bit more surprising than you might think, as he sports an elite 29.3% LD% and tiny 2.9% IFFB%. But I guess his balls in play just aren’t of high enough quality regardless of the batted ball type. Statcast calculates his xBA at just .214, versus a .270 actual. It’s hard to find a catcher replacement so if you’re an owner, there’s likely not much you can do besides cross your fingers xwOBA doesn’t act like a crystal ball in Barnhart’s case.

What was so intriguing about Jared Walsh’s small sample breakout last year was the massive improvement in strikeout rate. It didn’t last. His strikeout rate has more than doubled and is back up to where we would have expected given his non-2020 history. He’s still hitting for tons of power, though Statcast thinks his SLG should be 100 points lower than it actually is. He also has no business hitting .283 and you could see all the pop-ups in his batted ball profile that you would think would make it difficult for him to post a .353 BABIP. I’m guessing most fantasy owners are still not fully buying into him yet, but if you do own him, it couldn’t hurt to see how high you might be able to sell him.

Cedric Mullins II has been one of fantasy’s most pleasant surprises, contributing strong four category production. Statcast calculates that his BABIP is in no way deserved, as its xBA is just .275 versus a .315 actual batting average. If that batting average does crater, it’s going to cut into his stolen base opportunities and take a big bite out of his value.

Trent Grisham has followed up well from last season’s breakout, but has traded some home run power (drop in HR/FB rate) for more hits on balls in play (higher BABIP). Statcast isn’t buying the jump in BABIP, which like Mullins, could cut into Grisham’s stolen base opportunities if it declines without a drop in strikeout rate too.

We were all eager to find out how Randy Arozarena would follow up his shocking 2020 season. He has continued to display a nice combination of power and speed, but he’s hitting far too many ground balls and a significantly lower rate of the flies he has hit have gone for a homer. Yet, Statcast still calculates an xwOBA below .300. It’s seemingly all about the BABIP, as it calculates an xBA of just .212 versus an actual .263 mark, likely thanks to a lowly 14.2% LD%, which makes it extremely difficult to sustain an inflated .346 BABIP. The power looks fine though and Statcast even calculates he may deserve an extra 0.8 homers. If he does hit a slump and his BABIP and batting average begin to tumble, he could quickly find himself getting dropped from the top of the order.

At age 37, Yuli Gurriel is having his best offensive season, driven partially by a double of his career walk rate. He has now actually walked more often than he has struck out. That’s great, but Statcast thinks his current .331 BABIP has been done using smoke and mirrors. His career best BABIP sits at just .308, but this year his FB% sits at the second highest rate of his career, while his LD% sits at the lowest mark. That’s usually a combination that would lead to a lower BABIP, not a significantly higher one. That said, while the batting average will almost certainly fall, the rest of his skills package remains rock solid and he bats in the middle of the lineup for the best offense in baseball.