A couple of days ago, I released some hitter rankings and now I’m going to dive into some players with the biggest value divergence. By going through the most different players, the value averaging makes any effects of an outlier less meaningful. Also, remember that these are the most divisive projections. Other player projections involve less disagreement.

It’s not always one projection being “wrong”. Each one as some instance of diverging. By using several projections, the faults of one are lessened.

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Yesterday, I identified and discussed the hitters who increased their fly ball pull percentage (FBP%) most from 2017 to 2018. Pulling the ball more frequently typically fuels power growth, so a significant decline could be the cause of a power dip. So let’s find out which hitters with at least 30 fly balls enjoyed a FBP% decline of at least 10%.

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Alas, we have reached the final 2018 pair of recaps of the primary components of my xHR/FB rate equation, fly ball pull percentage (FBP%). Simply, it’s easier to hit a homer to the pull side. Why? Because the fences are closer down the lines than to center field. Plus, hitters are typically able to generate more power when pulling the ball, so they hit their pulled flies harder, plus those pulled flies don’t have to travel as far to jump over the fence for a dinger. So let’s find out which hitters with at least 30 fly balls enjoyed a FBP% surge of at least 10%.

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It’s time to really get for the 2019 fantasy season and start and release out a set of hitter rankings to nitpick. In all fairness, some of the following projections need to be blown up. Normally, I just average several projections and use them for my fantasy values with great success. With a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ approach, I usually make sure one extreme value, high or low, doesn’t dominate my decision.

Some people get on me for just following these projections. Generally, I do follow them but just as a starting point. As I’ve shown this last week, I add in my own adjustments as I see fit into the baseline values. While Steamer has been out for a few months, other projections are now becoming available. Today, I just wanted to compare them to see who are some of the more divisive players.

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My last few articles have been deep dives on hitters who I felt may need their projection adjusted. Today, I’m going through the last few. Remember, this analysis is focused on the player’s talent projection changing and not on playing time.

Kyle Tucker (220nd in NFBC ADP)

I knew Tucker would make this list before the list ever existed. The 22-year-old flew through the minors and just destroyed AAA with a .332/.400/.590 triple slash line last season. Once he got the majors, the results stunk with him hitting .141/.236 /.203 in just 72 plate appearances.

And now the xStats come to his rescue since he was extremely unlucky with his batted balls. Here are his various actual and expected values.

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On Thursday, I identified and discussed the hitters(with at least 30 fly balls in each year) who increased their average fly ball distance (AFBD) marks the most from 2017 to 2018. Now let’s take a look at the biggest decliners. If a hitter on this list suffered a dramatic drop in HR/FB rate, this is likely why.

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A few days ago, I did a deep dive on several hitters I felt that I needed to personally adjust their projection. Today, I’m going through a few more. This analysis is focused on the player’s talent profile changing and not on playing time.

Paul DeJong (NFBC ADP of 191st)

The reason Dejong popped up on my radar was his broken hand from mid-May to early July. It seems like he may have returned a little too early and his results suffered.

Month: OPS
Apr: .866
May: .728
June: DNP
July: .589
Aug: .726
Sep: .777

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The grind of baseball can sometimes sap the joy from the sport. Thus, it’s refreshing when a champion of the people emerges. Such a hero appeared on the scene late in the 2018 season – Twins catcher Willians Astudillo.

The catcher/first baseman hasn’t been viewed as a legitimate prospect since he was a teenager in the Phillies system. Even then, you had to dig deep to find him. Now 27, he’s become a folk hero for his base running, home run antics, and refusal to walk or strike out. Scouts call him bad-bodied. To a layman, it looks like their pudgy local plumber is running around on a field with a bunch of chiseled professionals. Just wait until he bends over…

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On Monday and Tuesday, I discussed the surgers and the decliners in one of my xHR/FB rate metrics, barrels per true fly ball (Brls/TFB). Today, I’ll move on to another component of the equation, average fly ball distance (AFBD, because I’m lazy).

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Since the end of the regular season, I’ve been helping various publications write player previews for the upcoming season. During the process, I kept a list of hitters who I felt there may be reasons to adjust their talent projections. I’ve found that even when I normally deep dive into hitters, I come up close to the standard projection and wasted my time. I found I’m better off focusing my effort on pitchers. I can’t afford to ignore hitters, though. I’m now going to analyze these few in detail over a series of articles to see if their projection holds up or do I need to adjust it.

For some of the hitters, the reason behind the talent change (e.g. injury) is obvious. For others, I don’t remember the exact reason. Oops. I’m going to start working my way through them starting with the ones with the highest ADP.

Note: I’m only dealing with the player’s talent. Projecting playing time is an entire separate fiasco.

Justin Turner (109th in NFBC ADP)

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