2018 Fly Ball Pull Percentage Surgers
Alas, we have reached the final 2018 pair of recaps of the primary components of my xHR/FB rate equation, fly ball pull percentage (FBP%). Simply, it’s easier to hit a homer to the pull side. Why? Because the fences are closer down the lines than to center field. Plus, hitters are typically able to generate more power when pulling the ball, so they hit their pulled flies harder, plus those pulled flies don’t have to travel as far to jump over the fence for a dinger. So let’s find out which hitters with at least 30 fly balls enjoyed a FBP% surge of at least 10%.
| Players | 2017 | 2018 | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 12.8% | 33.0% | 20.2% |
| Chris Young | 34.9% | 55.0% | 20.1% |
| Alen Hanson | 18.2% | 37.1% | 18.9% |
| Elias Diaz | 8.9% | 27.6% | 18.7% |
| Jesus Aguilar | 16.9% | 33.3% | 16.4% |
| Russell Martin | 17.5% | 31.9% | 14.5% |
| Evan Gattis | 24.3% | 38.8% | 14.5% |
| Jeimer Candelario | 17.1% | 30.8% | 13.6% |
| Nick Hundley | 18.8% | 31.5% | 12.8% |
| Avisail Garcia | 8.9% | 21.3% | 12.4% |
| David Freese | 2.8% | 14.5% | 11.7% |
| Alex Avila | 7.7% | 19.4% | 11.7% |
| Steve Pearce | 26.6% | 38.1% | 11.5% |
| Tucker Barnhart | 16.7% | 27.9% | 11.3% |
| Daniel Robertson | 9.4% | 20.6% | 11.2% |
| Carlos Gomez | 20.4% | 31.6% | 11.2% |
| Manuel Margot | 11.6% | 22.8% | 11.2% |
| Eddie Rosario | 18.8% | 29.5% | 10.7% |
| Rafael Devers | 17.2% | 27.6% | 10.3% |
| Miguel Rojas | 14.3% | 24.4% | 10.1% |
| Kolten Wong | 20.7% | 30.7% | 10.0% |
| League Average | 24.2% | 23.7% | -0.5% |
And the winner for most significant FBP% spike is…Brandon Nimmo! And whaddya know, his HR/FB rate jumped en route to a breakout first full season. Is this sustainable? My crystal ball isn’t working, but it’ll be the key to his 2019 power output.
Sitting fifth on our list is another breakout in Jesus Aguilar. But unlike Nimmo, Aguilar’s HR/FB rate only inched up from 2017. However, the fact that he pushed his FBP% to well above the league average from below it is a good sign moving forward for his power…if he could sustain the spike. Unfortunately, the Brewers have no need to remain patient with him as they still have Eric Thames to take Aguilar’s place if the power isn’t repeatable.
Jeimer Candelario failed to post a respectable barrel rate, but at least he improved in one area en route to improved power. He’s still young enough to improve that barrel rate though, so if he could maintain this new FBP% level, there’s further upside here.
From the lowest FBP% of his career in 2017 to the highest, it’s not surprise that Avisail Garcia posted his first HR/FB rate above 20% with that shiny new FBP% level. He also raised his fly ball rate over 30% for the first time, as he seemingly transformed as a hitter. If he played a full season, he would have easily eclipsed 20 homers for the first time. He now moves to Tampa, which is quite the park downgrade. With his playing time up in the air and this new version of himself not very good offensively, he’s not exactly recommended.
Manuel Margot was a popular sleeper heading into the 2018 season, but he failed to pan out. His HR/FB rate actually plummeted despite a jump in FBP%. The thing is, I don’t really care for Margot to try to tap into more power. I want him running! There’s really no excuse for the guy who ranks 26th in Statcast Sprint Speed to swipe just 11 bags and only succeed 52% of the time. The Padres have some exciting young power in their outfield, so Margot’s playing time outlook appears rather cloudy.
Eddie Rosario enjoyed a HR/FB rate spike in 2017, but it was driven by a jump in barrel rate. He actually maintained that barrel rate in 2018, all the while his FBP% spiked. You’d expect his HR/FB rate to surge again, right? Nope, it fell right back to his 2016 level. Judging by his xHR/FB rates, the moral of the story is he was a bit lucky in 2017 and unlucky in 2018. That he maintained his barrel rate breakout and also now brings the potential for a high FBP% means there’s additional home run upside here.
Rafael Devers pulled his flies significantly more often, but oddly the average distance of those flies fell from his 2017 mark. So overall, his xHR/FB rate barely budged, as did his actual HR/FB rate. I’m more concerned about his BABIP skills given his lowly line drive rate and high IFFB%, along with inability to hit lefties so far. His value is likely to continue coming from his name and prospect pedigree, rather than reasonable expectations for his performance.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
In looking at the ages of the players on the list, I note many past age 28 and coming off very poor recent seasons. To me they have no choice but to reinvent themselves into pull power hitters. To me it is much more interesting to view a hitter say 25 years or so, taking this approach as a real option of choice, not a default to Father Time.
Let’s not forget that Devers turned just 22 less than three months ago. So his value is likely to come from maturing into his talent, not from his “name and prospect pedigree.” That was a pretty ignorant comment in my view.
Growth isn’t automatic and certainly not linear. Not every young player just automatically improves each season.
Certainly that is true, but it is also true that virtually no player is done developing at age 21. Your final comment about Devers in the post suggested you were throwing him into the busted or at least over-hyped prospect category. Since 1901, there have been only 15 seasons where an infielder at Dever’s age or younger had as many HRs (21) and SBs (5) as Devers did last season (and that was in only 450 ABs). Devers’ 2018 is an auspicious season, not an inauspicious one.
Absolutely not! I think there’s a difference between fantasy cost/perceived value and real life value. A player could be fantastic, exciting, on a growth path, etc in real baseball, but also be overvalued in fantasy. I admittedly have no clue where his ADP lands, but players like him tend to be overvalued because fantasy owners love chasing the young guys with breakout potential (on the assumption that every young player automatically improves each season). They don’t realize they just paid for the breakout, leaving more room for value loss than a profit.
Mike, is it possible to review a list similar to this article say from 2017 and see what they did the next year ( last year)? Did the pull emphasis develop into anything that became good process, or was it a one year experimental event?
Sure, that’s easy enough to do. I’m going to bet on the big gainers only holding onto half their gains on avg in Yr 3, and the losers bouncing back a similar amount. For the barrel rate and avg FB dist, I’d be similar, except the losers will gain back less than half their loss due to effects of aging (not sure what aging effects would be for FB Pull%).