Hot Button Hitters: The Divisive Projections

A couple of days ago, I released some hitter rankings and now I’m going to dive into some players with the biggest value divergence. By going through the most different players, the value averaging makes any effects of an outlier less meaningful. Also, remember that these are the most divisive projections. Other player projections involve less disagreement.

It’s not always one projection being “wrong”. Each one as some instance of diverging. By using several projections, the faults of one are lessened.

Now, I could easily be wrong in the following assessments. Which of the following projection do you think is wrong based on 600 PA? Please let me know in the comments.

Note: Again, I’m not giving out who are the other sources as the focus is just looking for differences. Also, all the projections or pro-rated to 600 plate appearances to make sure the differences are in talent, not playing time.

Charlie Blackmon (25th in NFBC ADP)

Charlie Blackmon Projections
Source Runs HR RBI SB AVG
FG Depth Chart 90 23 70 11 .287
Source 1 104 25 72 12 .303
Source 2 102 27 69 12 .301
Source 3 96 26 73 9 .282
Max 104 27 73 12 .303
Average 98 25 71 11 .293
Min 90 23 69 9 .282
Prorated to 600 PA

Our Depth Charts and Source 3 hate Blackmon mainly with Runs and AVG. I can interpret where all but the Runs values come from, though. Here are his past three seasons all prorated to 600 PA:

Charlie Blackmon Stats
Year Runs HR RBI SB AVG
2016 104 27 77 16 .324
2017 113 31 86 12 .331
2018 103 25 60 10 .291
Prorated to 600 PA

He’s going to be 32-years-old so some aging factor numbers will be dragging him down, thus a drop is expected. All the projections, except the .282 AVG, seem fine but once it gets average in, it isn’t out of place.

I’m just more of 100 Runs guy. I wondered if the team context changed much, but it hasn’t. In 2018, the Rockies average 4.79 Runs/Game and are projected for 4.84 Runs this year. The average projection lessens the effect of the low Depth Chart value, so I’m fine moving forward with his averaged value.

Nelson Cruz (129th in NFBC ADP)

Nelson Cruz Projections
Source Runs HR RBI SB AVG
FG Depth Chart 87 35 101 1 .282
Source 1 80 33 91 1 .260
Source 2 79 35 100 1 .274
Source 3 83 36 110 1 .278
Max 87 36 110 1 .282
Average 82 35 100 1 .274
Min 79 33 91 1 .260
Prorated to 600 PA

Source 1 is not a fan of Cruz and just doesn’t expect the 100 RBI or the batting average. Cruz did post an .256 AVG last season fueled by a .264 BABIP but normally has an AVG near .280 with a BABIP over .300. I’m perfectly fine going with my average value.

Khris Davis (45th in NFBC ADP)

Khris Davis Projections
Source Runs HR RBI SB AVG
FG Depth Chart 82 36 98 1 .240
Source 1 92 43 112 1 .248
Source 2 80 31 96 2 .255
Source 3 89 42 109 2 .246
Max 92 43 112 2 .255
Average 86 38 104 1 .247
Min 80 31 96 1 .240
Prorated to 600 PA

These projections are all over the place with the Depth Charts and Source 2 being on the low pessimistic side. The .255 projected AVG from Source 2 seems to be the worst offender. Before diving in, here are his stats from the past three seasons.

Khris Davis Stats
Year Runs HR RBI SB AVG
2016 84 41 100 1 .247
2017 84 40 101 4 .247
2018 90 44 113 0 .247
Prorated to 600 PA

It seems like that the two higher projections are weighing 2018 more while the other two are taking 2016 and 2017 into account more. As a 31-year-old, a production drop should be expected so the median value seems about right especially since it puts his AVG at .247.

Miguel Andujar (68th in NFBC ADP)

Miguel Andujar Projections
Source Runs HR RBI SB AVG
FG Depth Chart 76 25 87 4 .279
Source 1 71 23 70 3 .265
Source 2 81 26 91 4 .293
Source 3 74 23 88 3 .289
Max 81 26 91 4 .293
Average 76 24 84 4 .282
Min 71 23 70 3 .265
Prorated to 600 PA

What a cluster f___ with the batting average. It’s almost a 30-point range with Source 2 being Mr. Optimist and Source 1 hating his guts. The .265 AVG is just completely out of place and by going with the average it’s not as bad.

Tommy Pham (64th in NFBC ADP)

Tommy Pham Projections
Source Runs HR RBI SB AVG
FG Depth Chart 77 21 69 17 .256
Source 1 104 25 72 20 .270
Source 2 95 19 64 16 .268
Source 3 100 25 73 20 .273
Max 104 25 73 20 .273
Average 94 22 70 18 .267
Min 77 19 64 16 .256
Prorated to 600 PA

Our depth charts have some issues with Pham and it’s mainly with the program doesn’t have him leading off and getting all the runs scored. I’m also, not sure what’s up with the batting average hate but some may be linked to a 26 K%. Again, the averaged value seems appropriate but I’ll need to re-examine the Run and RBI mix.

We hoped you liked reading Hot Button Hitters: The Divisive Projections by Jeff Zimmerman!

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Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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ship
Member
ship

Be honest, you only wrote this article because even Khris Davis’s average averages hit .247 and you needed an excuse to bring it to light. I thank you for doing so.

Anon
Member
Anon

LOL. I missed that – that’s funny. Both the the stat itself and the fact that you got to write “average averages”

Both Davis (.247 BA) and Nomar Mazara (20 HR) are sitting on 3 year streaks of the exact same number in a category and have the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to join Adam Dunn (40 HR from 2005-2008) as players to have posted the exact same number in a stat 4 years in a row. I’m sure media coverage will be extensive. . . .

EDIT**** I had it in my head that Davis was at 3 years, but it looks like he’s actually at 4 years in a row, though he didn’t qualify for the batting title in 2015. Not sure how the “rule book” will treat that. Does that get an asterisk? 🙂

DBall
Member
DBall

Davis has a 4 year streak of .247 avg, started with brewers in 2015.

phealy48
Member
phealy48

Was 2018 not Khris Davis’s fourth year of .247?