A couple of days ago, I released some hitter rankings and now I’m going to dive into some players with the biggest value divergence. By going through the most different players, the value averaging makes any effects of an outlier less meaningful. Also, remember that these are the most divisive projections. Other player projections involve less disagreement.
It’s not always one projection being “wrong”. Each one as some instance of diverging. By using several projections, the faults of one are lessened.
Now, I could easily be wrong in the following assessments. Which of the following projection do you think is wrong based on 600 PA? Please let me know in the comments.
Note: Again, I’m not giving out who are the other sources as the focus is just looking for differences. Also, all the projections or pro-rated to 600 plate appearances to make sure the differences are in talent, not playing time.
Charlie Blackmon (25th in NFBC ADP)
|FG Depth Chart||90||23||70||11||.287|
Our Depth Charts and Source 3 hate Blackmon mainly with Runs and AVG. I can interpret where all but the Runs values come from, though. Here are his past three seasons all prorated to 600 PA:
He’s going to be 32-years-old so some aging factor numbers will be dragging him down, thus a drop is expected. All the projections, except the .282 AVG, seem fine but once it gets average in, it isn’t out of place.
I’m just more of 100 Runs guy. I wondered if the team context changed much, but it hasn’t. In 2018, the Rockies average 4.79 Runs/Game and are projected for 4.84 Runs this year. The average projection lessens the effect of the low Depth Chart value, so I’m fine moving forward with his averaged value.
Nelson Cruz (129th in NFBC ADP)
|FG Depth Chart||87||35||101||1||.282|
Source 1 is not a fan of Cruz and just doesn’t expect the 100 RBI or the batting average. Cruz did post an .256 AVG last season fueled by a .264 BABIP but normally has an AVG near .280 with a BABIP over .300. I’m perfectly fine going with my average value.
Khris Davis (45th in NFBC ADP)
|FG Depth Chart||82||36||98||1||.240|
These projections are all over the place with the Depth Charts and Source 2 being on the low pessimistic side. The .255 projected AVG from Source 2 seems to be the worst offender. Before diving in, here are his stats from the past three seasons.
It seems like that the two higher projections are weighing 2018 more while the other two are taking 2016 and 2017 into account more. As a 31-year-old, a production drop should be expected so the median value seems about right especially since it puts his AVG at .247.
Miguel Andujar (68th in NFBC ADP)
|FG Depth Chart||76||25||87||4||.279|
What a cluster f___ with the batting average. It’s almost a 30-point range with Source 2 being Mr. Optimist and Source 1 hating his guts. The .265 AVG is just completely out of place and by going with the average it’s not as bad.
Tommy Pham (64th in NFBC ADP)
|FG Depth Chart||77||21||69||17||.256|
Our depth charts have some issues with Pham and it’s mainly with the program doesn’t have him leading off and getting all the runs scored. I’m also, not sure what’s up with the batting average hate but some may be linked to a 26 K%. Again, the averaged value seems appropriate but I’ll need to re-examine the Run and RBI mix.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.