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Note: Any noted rostership rates come from the NFBC RotoWire Online Championship, the same rates we use on the FanGraphs Player Rater. For reference, these leagues are 12-team Roto leagues with 30-man rosters (2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT, 9 P) and weekly add/drops. This rate can be compared to other rostership rates found in this article.

American League

Angels

• Adam Frazier started his rehab assignment.

INF Adam Frazier
Injury: Right elbow inflammation
IL date: June 8 (10-day IL, retroactive to June 6)
Expected return: July
Status: Started a rehab assignment with Triple-A Salt Lake on July 19. Went 0-for-3 while playing second base.

Frazier is irrelevant once he returns. The problem is that the Angels can’t help themselves from playing Frazier, so I could see him cut into the playing time of Vaughn Grissom and/or Denzer Guzman.

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Intro

You may have noticed over the years that RotoGraphs has not typically published dynasty rankings. This is likely for any number of reasons. There is no lack of dynasty content or rankings on other sites and, absent a ranking model that adds particular value relative to the rest of the industry, there isn’t much incentive to, as my editor put it, “vibe out a list of rankings.”

I wanted to change that, though. The full rankings model is not ready to hit the press yet, but I wanted to walk you through some of the steps and methodology that are going into my rankings because I both value transparency and think that there are useful insights to glean along the way. First up is the key differentiator in any dynasty ranking: prospects.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode ranking (in lieu of our Friday pod)
• SP Rankings (last update: 6/5 | next: Friday)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

• I’m always nervous taking on PIT with righties, but Cole has been strong over his L3 (27% K-BB) so I can’t see sitting him.
• Jax’s last start got away from him in 6th with 4 of the 7 ER but even with that, he has a 3.51 ERA/1.10 WHIP/21% K-BB in his L8.
• The tough part about Detmers is that he’s great or terrible, no in between, at least from an ER standpoint: 1-3-0-1-0-5-2-5-5-0. The composite run is still excellent: 3.34 ERA/0.96 WHIP/23% K-BB so he remains in the lineup. Plus, each of the Duds in that run came against teams who hit lefties well – at ATH, BOS, at TEX – and the trip to ATH could’ve easily been skipped given how tough that park has been this year.
• Ober is still a soft-tossing HR machine so his downside remains severe, but there’s been enough good to get him back in the lineup consistently. His last 2 Duds were very skippable, too, coming against two of the breakout offenses of the year: at PIT and at WAS.
• Fried is coming off the IL so I get it if you want to see one especially against a tough PIT offense. They’ve ascended vL, sitting 4th in wOBA over the L30 days so it’s not just righties we have to worry about with the Pirates. I generally run my aces off rip once they’re healthy, but this is one where I could see myself being cautious (I don’t have Fried anywhere to make the decision myself).
• After a bit of a June Swoon (that kinda started with his last 2 in May – 5.45 ERA in 7 starts from 5/24-6/28), King has rebounded on the surface with a 2.12 ERA/1.00 WHIP in his L3, but just a 10% K-BB supporting it. So we’re not totally out of the woods with King concerns and I can see some skips here, even if ATL’s offense has come back to Earth recently: 24th in wOBA vR since June 1st after sitting 1st from Opening Day through May.

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What do we know about value in fantasy baseball? We know a player’s value can rise swiftly based on recent production, or drop drastically due to injury or underperformance. We also know that a player’s fantasy value can be quite subjective. It is in the eye of the beholder and is often bolstered by bias. A lifelong Yankee fan who plays fantasy baseball may overvalue Trent Grisham because he leads off for the Yankees and hits tanks. An embittered Padres fan who overpaid for Grisham in 2022 and 2023 drafts when Grisham hit below the Mendoza Line those two seasons won’t see him in the same light. A player’s true value lies on a spectrum between those extremes. The other, and even more important element, is how a player can specifically help a roto team. Assuming these two managers were friends in the same league, and the Padres fan had a big lead on second place in the BA category, but had standings points to gain in HR, and was offering a fair return, the Padres fan might be able to put his bias aside for the good of his roto squad. If he had a massive lead in HR, but low in BA, the two sides would be even further apart; there wouldn’t be a trade conversation in the first place.

So, what about player values in keeper or dynasty formats or Ottoneu? Keeper leagues are an entirely different animal than redraft because there are so many more layers to the onion. Values are even more subjective and skewed because of the longer-term approach; it’s not just about what a player projects for “ROS”. Every season, some teams are rebuilding while others are contending, so specific player archetypes (ie, injured, declining, blossoming prospect) don’t have the same baseline value across all leagues. Moreover, keeper league managers are what the kids call “extra”, in a good way, of course. Though league titles are won every season, keepers are more of a journey than a destination. It requires attention and commitment throughout the entire calendar year. It’s even more important for keeper league managers to filter out personal bias, since the manager-fantasy player relationships are deeper. There’s a lot more attachment and connection to players, especially those that have been on one’s squad for a long time. Nevertheless, keeper league players are usually very serious, well-informed, and dialed in. The management of one’s portfolio of assets and the potential long-term consequences, for good or for bad, makes it generally more difficult to make deals. But when Manager A is in a clear rebuild mode, and Manager B is going for the title now, deals can align organically.

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PCA is not allergic to the Ivy:

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Buying low and selling high. That’s the classic value proposition we all shoot for in trades. We’re trying to win after all!

It’s hard to win if you aren’t extracting value from your opponents, or at least adding value to your own team via the wire. 

And at this point in the year, with less than 40% of the fantasy baseball season remaining, it’s time to get serious. It’s time to really consider what holding onto struggling stars means for your playoff chances. It’s time for top seeds to load up on upside and injured players that the bubble teams can no longer afford to hold onto. It’s time to sell the young aces that got you here, for shelf stable veterans, or at least for pitchers we trust to pitch into September. 

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I believe I can fly!

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode ranking (in lieu of our Friday pod)
• SP Rankings (last update: 6/5 | next: Friday)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

Fell asleep on the couch after that excellent Tigers game, so I’ll get some comments up in the morning!!

• Gausman might not be fully out of his funk (7.46 ERA in L5) but after 13 ER in the first two, he has 2 QS in his L3. It hasn’t been a great season, but I can’t see sitting him in many spots.
• Framber has struggled with start-to-start consistency as evidenced by his ER counts over his L12: 7-2-4-1-4-1-4-0-1-4-5-1. So while he’s fallen short of expectations with his composite ratios, it’s hard to get away from start him. I could maybe see a skip in 10s here if you have a deep rotation, but 12s and deeper should keep him locked in.
• ReyLo’s back! One of my favorites over the years, he’s fully stretched out with 5 IP in each of his L3 outings and now gets the worst offense in the league.
• If you’re a big Thornton backer, I can see starting him in some 10s, too. I played it cautiously with MIL but he’s been impressive in his spot starts and has the skills to be a part of this rotation. We’ll see if Clay Holmes kicks him out upon return but then the deadline should clear a spot for him assuming they don’t win every game between now and August 3rd and miraculously get back into the mix.
• Sproat has a looked a lot more like the breakout pick many thought he could be coming into the season, posting a 3.55 ERA/1.12 WHIP/17% K-BB in his L7 after a 6.24 ERA through May. I don’t blame anyone who cut him after back-to-back months of mid-6.00s and the walks that plagued him early aren’t fully handled with a 9% BB during this run.
• Warren, Imai, and Schultz are scary streamers. They have the upside to pop off, but we’ve seen the downside, especially lately with all 3 toting an ERA north of 5.00 in the last month of work. Warren and Schultz also get tough matchups and while Imai’s MIA matchup isn’t super difficult, they have been known to go off at times, too.
• It was a begrudging 1-x for Perkins and probably should be 0, but I keep getting drawn in by the quality core skills. Even in this nightmare run of his L7 with an 8.32 ERA/1.68 WHIP, he still has a 17% K-BB (f0r context, that’s a Top 30 mark among qualified SPs). While Sacramento is to blame for some of the trouble, he has a 6.08 ERA on the road, too, but with ARI ranking 28th in wOBA and Corbin Carroll possibly out of the lineup again as he’s nursing an elbow issue that kept him out Monday. I want to love Perk, but he has punished fantasy mangers who’ve believed in him so far.
• MIN yoinked Anderson from BOS and will be in a Follower position today which could put him in line for a W. He throws strikes and is stretched out enough to go 4-5 IP.

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Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions of the weekend. I dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.

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Following on from the hitters chart, we now look at how pitchers have performed so far this year against their OOPSY rest-of-season (RoS) projections.

Continuing with the framework of the hitters’ piece, this will first look at those with projected ERA rises, then at those with projected ERA drops. Just as we identified BABIP and ISO as the major determining factors in the hitters’ RoS outlooks, we will identify a similar through line here: for pitchers, it is largely strand rate.

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