Archive for Featured

Here is today’s chat transcript:

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The World Cup is officially over:

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode ranking (coming Monday AM in lieu of our Friday pod)
• SP Rankings (last update: 6/5 | next: Friday)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

Justin and I weren’t able to record our normal 2-start breakdown episode on Friday so I’ll do a ranking list of ’em tomorrow morning (well, later this morning as it’s just clicking past midnight as I type this) along with some commentary notes on today’s board.

3-x

• Flaherty is dialed in right now with a 1.08 ERA/0.78 WHIP/22% K-BB in the L30 days, though that’s only 3 starts because of the break, so if we dial back to May 28th, he has 7 starts of 2.56 ERA/1.08 WHIP with that same 22% K-BB.
• Martinez is a classic “He can’t keep getting away with it” guy with sparkling ratios all year despite downright paltry skills underneath (10% K-BB). I leaned away from him a few times in what should’ve been tough starts but he just keeps putting up gems. Since DET ripped him for 6 ER (his only start over 3 ER), he has rebounded with a 3.38 ERA in 6 starts.

2-x

• Took an “x” off Abbott and Bibee upon further review. Abbott has been maddening this year and it seems any time I give him some credit and decide to get on board, he starts pitch to his metrics and then when I’m off him, he’s dealing. He’s a WHIP killer even in the best of times so if you’re protecting that category, he is an easier skip. Bibee’s been inconsistent as well, but has rebounded from each of his 3 Duds with Quality Starts. He had been rolling for 6 starts before the CHW trounced him for 6 ER but he worked around 4 BB at MIA to drop a 6.7 IP/1 ER gem against ’em. I dropped him from 3 to 2 in deference to MIN’s AL-leading run total of 479, ranked 8th overall (further showing the NL/AL divide this year).
• Maybe 2-x is too hot for Peralta, I just don’t know what to do with him. He hasn’t made it 5 IP in any of his L3 and bludgeons your WHIP nearly every time out.
• Back in April-May, I was so bummed I didn’t have a load of Soriano shares this year after being a big fan of his the last three seasons but it turns out he was just running hot and Mike Maddux had no in fact fixed him. After an 0.84 ERA through his first 7 starts, he’s at 5.14 in his L13, pushing his season numbers almost all the way back to career numbers of 3.79 ERA/1.31 WHIP (season total: 3.49/1.29). He’s back to a Team Streamer at best and probably just a Standard Streamer in shallower formats especially with such a low Win probability.

0-1 x 

• Baz also lost an “x” overnight as I just don’t think we have to take him into Fenway. The Red Sox are the hottest team going right now and that 27th ranked season wOBA is deceiving and obscures the fact that they’re 8th in the L30 days. I’ve long had my concerns with Baz and I certainly haven’t seen anything this year to give much more confidence than normal.
• PIT’s strength is generally vR, but they’re surging vL sitting 12th on the year and 3rd in the L30 days. Weathers has been frustratingly inconsistent this year, including a 5.61 ERA/1.42 WHIP in his L8 despite a strong 19% K-BB. His HR issues remain, though in fairness he is HR-free in is L4. I wanted nothing to do with him at WAS in his last start before the break and so of course he dropped a gem: 5.3 IP/1 ER/6 Ks/0 BB. He heads to PHI on the weekend so it’s not the most appealing 2-step even in weekly lineup formats and yet I have a hard time cutting him in anything but the most shallow leagues with that excellent 20% K-BB.
• McDonald is in for SFG, not Mahle, but still just 1-x.
• Blanco is returning from TJ and jumps right into the fire with a 2-step. He reached 68 pitches in his last start so we could see 4-5 IP right away. Let’s keep expectations in check for a TJ returner, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he played himself into a useful Team Streamer down the stretch.

2-Start Ranking

• Messick, not Cecconi. Not at my desktop to remake the board right now, but consider him 9th behind Ashcraft. Easy auto-start!

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7:31	Jeff Zimmerman:

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David Richard-Imagn Images

In this article, I cover the players using CBS’s and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. I start players being added at CBS who started the week on less than 40% of rosters.

The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by hitters, starters, and relievers.

Batters

Lane Thomas: He’s been on heater (possibly healthy) since July 1st, batting .326/.392/.674 with 3 HR … and no make that 4 HR.

Heriberto Hernández: The power bat (13 HR in 232 PA) is now a full-time player with Owen Caissie on the IL.

Kyle Karros: He’s finally getting results from his early-season Exit Velocity increases. Since June 27th, he has hit .283/.403/.633 with 5 HR in 72 PA.

Jake Mangum: Mangum’s value just went up with Oneil Cruz on the IL until at least August 8th. Mangum (.310 AVG, 2 HR, 18 SB) will continue to man centerfield until Cruz returns.

Tristan Peters: The strong-side platoon bat is in a stretch of facing nine straight right-handed pitchers. Decent contributor with 6 HR, 5 SB, and a .300 AVG.

Cooper Pratt: In 92 PA, he still hasn’t hit a home run. At least he has 6 SB so far. He might be on the strong side of a platoon.

Jake Cronenworth: In 52 PA since coming off the IL, he has 2 HR and 2 SB while batting .280/.294/.420.

Joshua Kuroda-Grauer: A great .429 AVG (.488 BABIP), but no home runs or stolen bases in 50 PA.

Brett Baty: Qualified at four positions (1B, 2B, 3B, OF) and is on pace for 10 HR/10 SB with a .224 AVG. Barely a bench streamer.

José Fermín: Started in nine of ten games. He’s not productive besides being qualified at second, third, and outfield.

Colt Keith: Remains a strong-side platoon bat with five righties on the schedule for next week. Some power with 8 HR in 273 PA.

Ryan Waldschmidt: Back in the majors with three starts in the last five games. Strikeouts remain a problem with 5 K in 9 PA. No major league power (0 HR), but has 6 SB.

Tommy White: Just one start in the majors after batting .303/.353/.465 with 10 HR in AAA. He doesn’t seem to be fantasy relevant.

Luis Lara: A .782 OPS (21 PA) since being promoted, but only started in five of nine games.

Injured Hitter

Trevor Story: Doing baseball activities. He wasn’t a difference maker before this injury, so I don’t expect much when he returns.

Hitting Prospects

Charlie Condon: In AAA, the 23-year-old outfielder is batting .288/.412/.579 with 20 HR and 5 SB in 369 PA.

Mike Sirota: Across two minor league levels (A+ and AA), the 23-year-old outfielder is batting .314/.468/.554 with 14 HR and 11 SB in 363 PA.

Starting Pitchers

Christian Scott: Since his first start of the season (5 BB in 1 IP), he has a 2.78 ERA (3.50 xFIP), 1.17 WHIP, and 11 K/9. He’s upped it a gear in the last two starts by not allowing a run with 12 K and 1 BB in 10 IP. The only change, besides throwing more strikes, is a 10% point increase in his curveball usage. An add in all leagues to see if the low walk rate sticks.

Brandon Pfaadt: With his new release point, he’s been lights out (1.71 ERA, 3.78 xFIP, 0.89 WHIP). Add now to see if the results can stick.

Zach Thornton: Started three times in three separate months with some solid overall results (2.60 ERA, 3.92 xFIP, 4.24 botERA). He’s lined up to start on Tuesday. I can see adding him, but I’d not want to start him.

Dean Kremer: Among the starters with at least 10 IP (n=191), Kremer’s 21.4% K-BB% ranks 18th. Keeping his value down has been 3.0 HR/9 since returning from the IL. Some team in all leagues needs to roster him.

Patrick Sandoval: On Saturday, Sandoval dropped his stock by allowing 4 ER in 5 IP. I’m intrigued because he did it with 5 K and 1 BB (3.55 xFIP). I’ll buy into the 19% K-BB% and hope for better luck next time.

Spencer Miles: Miles’s playing time is up in the air because he’s not thrown much in the past, but he’s been solid this season (3.52 ERA, 3.21 xFIP, 8.6 K/9, 1.13 WHIP, 55% GB%). His start coming out of the break (6 ER, 6 H, 4 K, and 1 BB in 4 IP) should keep his price down.

Kyle Leahy: Over the last four games, Leahy has allowed just 1 ER (94% LOB%, .185 BABIP), leading to 0.47 (4.27 xFIP) over that stretch. For the season, he’s seen a slow increase in his fastball velocity.

Solid streaming option.

Brady Singer: Singer is on a nice eight-game stretch with a 2.76 ERA (3.91 xFIP), 1.09 WHIP, and 9.1 K/9. Our STUPH models don’t see anything positive with a 4.69 botERA and 88 Pitching+. I could not find any changes to think he’s taken a step forward. I don’t buy any improvement, especially since he’s seen similar eight-game stretches and then struggled on the mound.

Sean Manaea: Since rejoining the rotation, Manaea is streamable with a 4.15 ERA (4.19 xFIP, 4.31 botERA), 1.27 WHIP, and 8.0 K/9.

Matthew Liberatore: Possibly being added for a two-start week (at LAA, vs CIN). All talent indicators point to him being a mid-4.00 ERA talent.

Robert Gasser: Extreme flyball nature (26% GB%) will lead to home runs (1.9 HR/9). He was solid in June (3.95 ERA, 3.60 xFIP) but got lit up in July (7.59 ERA, 5.51 xFIP). I’m keeping my distance for now.

Owen Murphy: For now, I don’t see a good reason to roster Murphy. The longest he’s thrown in any game is 3 IP, and his skills are middling (8.1 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 20% GB%).

Colin Rea: Nothing to see but a mid-to-high 4.00 ERA talent.

Cal Quantrill: Besides his actual 3.93 ERA, all other signs point to a 5.00 ERA talent with his 5.5 K/9 and 1.4 HR/9.

Injured Pitchers

Clay Holmes: In two AA rehab starts (4 IP), he has a 6.8 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9. Not ideal.

Jackson Jobe: In two minor league rehab starts, he has a 29% K-BB%.

Ronel Blanco: A 5.14 xFIP in 17 IP during his rehab. Not the ideal production.

AJ Smith-Shawver: He has at least one more rehab start, but I’m not interested at all. He’s never shown control and is coming back from an injury. Big pass.

Pitching Prospects

Seth Hernandez: In A-ball, the 20-year-old righty has a 2.61 ERA (3.12 xFIP), 1.07 WHIP, and 14.5 K/9.

Relievers: Saves-based ranks

Kirby Yates: Good reliever who may be the closer.

Grant Taylor: Great reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.

Andrew Kittredge: Average reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.

Tyler Wells: Average reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.

Jacob Webb: Average reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.

Trent Thornton: Below-average reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.

Garrett Whitlock: Good reliever who is the backup closer

Luke Weaver: Good reliever who is the backup closer.

Adrian Morejon: Great reliever who is the backup closer.

Dylan Lee: Great reliever who is the backup closer.

Andrew Morris: Average reliever who is the backup closer.

Earlier this week, I wrote about the importance of looking at a hitter’s performance on a per-game-started basis, particularly if you are in a daily lineups league. There are real risks to considering a hitter’s overall line without considering what they do when they start, and those risks can cut both ways. If you look at their rate stats and dream on the value of that .350 wOBA, you might miss that they lose plate appearances to pinch hitters, which might cost them 10% or more of their PA, even when they start.

If you look at their per-game stats, you might underrate a player’s power output or stolen base contribution because those numbers look bad overall, but they are actually on pace for 20/20 over 160 games. Today, we’ll account for those risks and look at a set of players whose overall and per-game performance might be hiding how good they have been on a per-game-started basis.

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Note: Any noted rostership rates come from the NFBC RotoWire Online Championship, the same rates we use on the FanGraphs Player Rater. For reference, these leagues are 12-team Roto leagues with 30-man rosters (2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT, 9 P) and weekly add/drops. This rate can be compared to other rostership rates found in this article.

Note #2: This will be a working article on Friday as more news trickles in. I thought more news would hit the wire earlier but there wasn’t much.

American League

Blue Jays

• Kevin Gausman has a new windup. Read the rest of this entry »

As we enter the heat of the post-All-Star break summer, it is a natural point for both reflection and action for our fantasy squads moving forward. This chart plots first-half wOBA against OOPSY’s rest-of-season projection (RoS); the pitching chart will be coming soon. It is a useful way to see the discrepancy between how some hitters have performed and what OOPSY expects for the rest of the season, and to discuss why regression is being projected, and in some cases why it isn’t, across the league.

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With over half of the 2026 season in the books, it’s a good a time to update OOPSY’s Top 100 prospects list, this time with a fantasy spin.

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Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit for Ottoneu points leagues. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

Note: In Ottoneu head-to-head leagues, this week’s matchup runs from July 16–26. Keep that in mind when deciding on your starters, since your games started cap doesn’t adjust for the longer schedule.

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