Sorry I for only getting to the National League today. I’ve been under the weather and don’t want to push it.
Note: Any noted rostership rates come from the NFBC RotoWire Online Championship, the same rates we use on the FanGraphs Player Rater. For reference, these leagues are 12-team Roto leagues with 30-man rosters (2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT, 9 P) and weekly add/drops. This rate can be compared to other rostership rates found in this article. Read the rest of this entry »
We’re following up on an earlier piece covering starting pitchers who have been throwing fewer fastballs in June and July. One way to find pitchers making a pitch mix change is to look at players throwing more or fewer fastballs (sinkers and four-seamers). We averaged the fastball usage in June and July, then compared the pitch percentage to May.
The visual below shows the starting pitchers throwing more fastballs in June and July.
Starting Pitchers Throwing More Fastballs (Four-Seam and Sinker) in June and July
Player
July
June
May
Average
Pitch% Diff in June/July
Alcantara, Sandy
50.4
46.0
40.2
45.3
8.0
Aldegheri, Sam
55.7
46.9
46.4
44.8
4.9
Boyd, Matthew
39.1
48.7
37.2
45.3
6.7
Cavalli, Cade
49.5
51.6
43.9
49.6
6.7
deGrom, Jacob
41.8
44.8
37.3
43.2
6.0
Dobbins, Hunter
48.9
49.4
41.0
45.9
8.2
Drohan, Shane
50.9
55.3
47.6
49.1
5.5
Fedde, Erick
45.7
30.2
32.7
33.3
5.3
Freeland, Kyle
34.4
32.7
29.1
31.5
4.5
Gasser, Robert
51.3
49.7
47.0
49.3
3.5
Gilbert, Logan
50.0
50.9
35.4
41.6
15.1
Gray, Sonny
42.9
42.4
34.2
39.1
8.5
Hancock, Emerson
69.6
62.3
61.8
63.5
4.1
Holmes, Grant
43.7
46.7
40.7
42.7
4.5
Jones, Jared
57.6
38.9
36.4
44.3
11.9
Kelly, Merrill
40.8
38.8
33.8
37.0
6.0
Lodolo, Nick
58.9
52.9
49.1
53.6
6.8
Lorenzen, Michael
43.8
39.8
37.3
38.8
4.5
Luzardo, Jesús
42.7
45.7
40.5
42.9
3.7
Martin, Davis
45.9
45.7
42.1
43.8
3.7
May, Dustin
47.0
48.8
37.7
45.1
10.2
McLean, Nolan
54.5
57.1
51.9
53.9
3.9
Messick, Parker
67.0
57.4
50.5
54.6
11.7
Miles, Spencer
62.7
57.1
53.3
57.6
6.6
Mize, Casey
45.3
51.7
43.3
46.0
5.2
Ohtani, Shohei
60.0
50.1
49.3
52.1
5.0
Pérez, Eury
58.1
55.8
54.0
55.4
3.0
Pérez, Martín
43.4
39.3
36.3
38.9
5.1
Peterson, David
58.0
50.4
49.2
53.2
5.0
Pfaadt, Brandon
47.0
56.3
45.9
46.8
5.8
Prielipp, Connor
47.0
42.5
40.2
40.7
4.6
Ritchie, JR
40.5
43.4
29.3
38.8
12.7
Sale, Chris
54.3
50.6
48.0
50.0
4.5
Singer, Brady
52.8
51.6
45.5
50.7
6.7
Skenes, Paul
56.7
50.6
49.6
51.9
4.1
Vásquez, Randy
58.4
42.2
47.2
47.6
3.1
Though we would love to examine more pitchers, we’re analyzing four that have been throwing more fastballs. If these pitchers have been throwing more fastballs, what’s different in their pitch mix? Does it matter? Why or why not? Let’s dive in.
Moving into the post-All-Star break, the clock really seems to begin to tick as the trade deadline approaches, and it feels like the season begins to really speed up on us. Time is running out for both MLB teams and keeper and dynasty managers deliberating whether to buy or sell. Whatever the situation may be, now, more than any other part of the season, we look to which teams can be aggressive in attacking the schedule in front of them. For this, I introduce the fixture ticker. Built for now until the end of August so you can look to identify targetable matchups in the upcoming weeks.
A little over a month ago, I wrote up a handful of hitters that were underperforming their draft cost, were readily available to pick up in most 12-teamers, and why they were primed to break through.
Looking at underlying numbers from this season and comparing them to last season for struggling players can help identify when a player may be on the cusp of coming on strong after a weak stretch.
Kyle Stowers was one such player. Coming back from injury, Stowers scuffled through mid-June, with an OPS below .700 and a K% near 30%. But from June 12 on, when I published the piece, he has slashed .261/.341/.521 with seven homers and 23 RBI. He had been squaring up the ball in the weeks leading up to this breakthrough. But without the results.
Of course, the same process told me to consider Alec Bohm, who is himself rocking on OPS below .700 since I shouted out his hot run at the end of May and into June. I’m no wizard.
But late in the year, hot stretches are incredibly valuable. I’m sure I don’t need to tell you that, but it bears repeating. Whether it be in head-to-head leagues, where a hot stretch in the late summer can lift you over opponents, or in season long roto leagues where you find yourself lagging in homers, the hot stretch is like a hot pastrami. Undeniably savory. Perfect.
Now let’s look at some hitters, focusing on a selection of players rostered at different rates between CBS and Yahoo. Consider these hitters, particularly those in the top tier, options to replace struggling veteranslike those that Mike Podhorzer wrote up a few days back. And if you are in a shallower league where these hitters are rostered, consider the art of the deal!
Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.
Tiny board today with pretty easy decisions down the line!
PIT clipped Gav Williams for 3 in the 6th inning and spoiled what had been an excellent outing, but he still notched 11 Ks to ease the pain of 5 ER.
Seymour’s 4.44 ERA in the L30 days is softened by a 0.95 WHIP and 28% K-BB, plus he gets a great matchup.
I’m not brimming w/confidence on any of the 1-x’ers: McGreevy is a mid-4.00s true talent at best but just keeps dropping gems so I can’t see taking him out of the lineup despite knowing this has to come back Earth. Similar to early season Bryce Elder (1.97 ERA thru 11 starts; 7.65 since).
Bieber has just 5 starts the last of which was a gem (6 IP/0 ER) and the one before that was solid (4.7 IP/2 ER) so I might actually prefer him to McGreevy by a smidge. I’m leaving them in their current order, though.
Pfaadt has been legitimately awesome since his return with a 2.14 ERA/0.95 WHIP including a strong trip to LAD, but I’m soooo skeptical of this success. It’s all control driven with a 1% BB over that time and just a 16% K rate.
One way to find starting pitchers who have been making pitch mix changes is to see who is throwing fewer or more fastballs (four-seamers and sinkers). The table below shows the starting pitchers who have thrown fewer four-seamers and sinkers in June and July. I used a 3-percentage point dip as a cutoff.
Starting Pitchers Throwing Fewer Fastballs (Four-Seam and Sinker) in June and July
Player
Fastball Pitch% (July)
wOBA
Fastball Pitch% (June)
wOBA
Fastball Pitch% (May)
wOBA
AVG 4SEAM + SINKER PITCH%
4SEAM + SINKER DIFF
Abbott, Andrew
43.8
0.303
43.7
0.382
48.5
0.346
45.9
-4.8
Arrighetti, Spencer
40.9
0.374
37.8
0.520
45.8
0.242
39.1
-6.5
Burke, Sean
51.2
0.286
28.7
0.403
52.6
0.273
42.4
-12.7
Canning, Griffin
22.1
0.313
21
0.525
38.8
0.368
27.3
-17.3
Cantillo, Joey
25
0.391
27.4
0.469
39.1
0.501
34.3
-12.9
Cecconi, Slade
53.9
0.530
39.2
0.304
55.7
0.37
48.8
-9.2
Chandler, Bubba
48.6
0.478
42.2
0.313
59
0.323
51.4
-13.6
Cole, Gerrit
51.7
0.213
46.9
0.430
54.3
0.241
51.0
-5.0
Elder, Bryce
47.3
0.444
50.5
0.364
54.7
0.319
49.8
-5.8
Gallen, Zac
40.8
0.542
38.6
0.457
44.3
0.444
41.7
-4.6
Gausman, Kevin
45.7
0.329
49.2
0.341
53.5
0.346
50.4
-6.1
Ginn, J.T.
44.6
0.282
40.2
0.297
48.6
0.386
42.4
-6.2
Griffin, Foster
17.6
0.178
25.8
0.227
30.1
0.379
25.2
-8.4
Imai, Tatsuya
48.2
0.618
44.8
0.418
54.6
0.273
48.8
-8.1
Imanaga, Shota
35.5
0.374
49.9
0.350
50.4
0.438
46.0
-7.7
Jax, Griffin
41.7
0.347
32.7
0.414
43
0.345
30.8
-5.8
Kay, Anthony
35.9
0.324
35.8
0.393
43.1
0.322
36.7
-7.3
Melton, Troy
48
0.199
44.9
0.365
50
0.25
47.6
-3.6
Meyer, Max
28.9
0.550
33.9
0.317
35
0.285
33.0
-3.6
Nola, Aaron
35.3
0.508
42.5
0.454
42.4
0.479
42.2
-3.5
Peralta, Freddy
54.5
0.526
50.2
0.333
56
0.316
53.2
-3.7
Ray, Robbie
39.6
0.393
39.3
0.337
45.6
0.47
43.2
-6.2
Rea, Colin
46.8
0.600
44
0.310
52.1
0.424
42.0
-6.7
Rocker, Kumar
34.7
0.523
32.2
0.477
36.4
0.391
37.9
-3.0
Rogers, Trevor
56.2
0.323
55.2
0.236
60.1
0.425
55.8
-4.4
Sasaki, Roki
41.9
0.470
42.8
0.397
46
0.324
43.1
-3.7
Scott, Christian
45
0.306
50
0.344
52.8
0.367
49.3
-5.3
Sproat, Brandon
52
0.306
44.8
0.262
54.8
0.31
44.1
-6.4
Wacha, Michael
42.6
0.395
37.4
0.259
45.4
0.252
41.9
-5.4
Warren, Will
55.7
0.437
65.7
0.365
67.4
0.324
64.3
-6.7
Weathers, Ryan
29.1
0.386
44.6
0.389
47.2
0.369
42.4
-10.4
Webb, Logan
34
0.374
39.8
0.158
48.6
0.412
42.6
-11.7
Wheeler, Zack
48
0.368
49.9
0.208
53.5
0.279
50.5
-4.6
Yamamoto, Yoshinobu
36.8
0.283
43
0.226
45
0.179
39.5
-5.1
I included the average wOBA for their four-seamers and sinkers to show whether it’s a pitch that has been hit hard or not. When a pitcher throws fewer fastballs, there’s probably a reason why. While we would love to examine all these starting pitchers on the list, it provides a starting point.
Let’s examine four starting pitchers who have been throwing fewer fastballs and whether that’s helpful in their arsenal. We covered a fifth name on this list, Joey Cantillo, in a recent swing timing and miss distance article.
While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain every advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.
Note: The waiver wire market over the last few weeks has been the worst I can remember. Five pitchers broke the threshold this week. If I did my normal five leagues, only two guys would be featured. After writing up the players, I felt like only two to three seemed like difference makers. The others were just the “best” of the rubish available on the waiver wire. The stagnant waiver wire has stagnated the standings, with teams running out the same guys every week. The lack of movement should change in the next couple of weeks with MLB’s trade deadline and a few stars (Ramirez, Acuna) expected to come off the IL. Read the rest of this entry »
Rhetoric Flair: Can I cut Framber Valdez at this point? None of his numbers (advanced or otherwise) give me any hope.
1:01
Paul Sporer: I dunno, I likely still wouldn’t outside of maaaybe the shallowest leagues depending who is available. I know yesterday was a NIGHTMARE but even accounting for that, he has a 4.57 ERA/1.38 WHIP – not what you paid for, but not season-killing, either. In most leagues, I just don’t know that you’re getting something better off the wire. So depends on size & who you’re getting
1:01
MD: Next week, you taking a 2 start Bennet (@ATH, @LAD) over either Fried (@CHW, @CHC), Webb (MIL), Sanchez (@BAL)? Messick and Yamamoto are my other 2, but the recent struggles from Webb/Sanchez have me wondering if I should get cute here
1:03
Paul Sporer: No that’s a devastating 2-step for Bennett there. He’s been good but I can’t see pushing over the group. Maybe if Fried looks completely discombobulated today fresh off the IL but I doubt it.
1:03
Paul Sporer: If his matchups were good, I could see getting cute v. the 1-start studs
Note: Any noted rostership rates come from the NFBC RotoWire Online Championship, the same rates we use on the FanGraphs Player Rater. For reference, these leagues are 12-team Roto leagues with 30-man rosters (2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT, 9 P) and weekly add/drops. This rate can be compared to other rostership rates found in this article.
INF Adam Frazier
Injury: Right elbow inflammation
IL date: June 8 (10-day IL, retroactive to June 6)
Expected return: July
Status: Started a rehab assignment with Triple-A Salt Lake on July 19. Went 0-for-3 while playing second base.
Frazier is irrelevant once he returns. The problem is that the Angels can’t help themselves from playing Frazier, so I could see him cut into the playing time of Vaughn Grissom and/or Denzer Guzman.
