Mason’s Musings: Bold Predictions Update

In 2021, I sat down to do my draft prep and as I looked through the projections and projected lineups for the upcoming season, one name stuck out to me as a potential breakout candidate: Cedric Mullins. He had spent a majority of the last month of the 2020 season as the Orioles lead off hitter and I saw his underlying skills as something that could be built on. He was also dirt cheap in early drafts, going outside of the top 500 picks. 

I started grabbing as many shares of him in early drafts as I could. I also started writing articles and talking about him a ton on my podcasts and whatever podcasts I guested on. Then the price began to rise. By the time I wrote my Bold Predictions article Mullins was rising into the top 400 picks. By the time the end of draft season came around, he was going around pick 300. This was great for me as an analyst as the leader of his bandwagon, but terrible for me as a player as I didn’t get him in most of my most important drafts. 

He would go on to hit .291/.360/.518 with 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases and become what I was best known for in the fantasy industry even though he wasn’t on enough of my fantasy teams. It was my best Bold Prediction call ever and may end up being the best one I ever make. 

This brings us to today. At the beginning of March, I made 10 Bold Predictions. Some are already dead. Some are still alive. Are any as good as Cedric Mullins? Let’s see where we are at about halfway through the season. 

Nasim Nuñez steals 50 bases

This one may be my best prediction of the season. I was massively in on Nunez coming into the season and while he only has a 74 wRC+, he has stolen 31 bases in 75 games played. He has also been fantastic defensively which keeps him on the field. There is a chance that injury hits and he doesn’t get to 50, but as long as he is playing, he should have no problem getting to 50. 85% probability.

Andrew Vaughn is a top 10 first baseman
Vaughn has been pretty good when he has been on the field, hitting .351/.438/.532, with only two home runs in 130 plate appearances. He missed time with injury that may have sapped some of the power. Unfortunately, the bigger issue is that the emergence of Jake Bauers has limited Vaughn to mostly being a short-side platoon bat since returning from the IL. Until an injury reopens a more regular role, there is no chance for him to do more. 5% probability.

Ryne Nelson is a top 30 starter
This one was a massive whiff from the start. Nelson was destroyed in his second start of the season and while he rebounded for his next two starts, he then got crushed twice in a row after that. He put together a nice stretch before one last stinker before blowing out his elbow and now his season is over. 0% chance. 

Zebby Matthews is a top 25 starter
Another whiff. He is at least still pitching, but the stuff hasn’t been nearly as good as it was previously and the command is still bad. 2% probability. 

Nick Lodolo is the top starting pitcher for the Reds
This one was less about Lodolo and more about the injury risk I felt Hunter Greene and Chase Burns had. I was right about Greene, but in spite of some early arm issues for Burns, he has been fantastic while Lodolo has been absolutely dreadful. Unless something happens to Burns here in the immediate future. 3% probability. 

Brett Baty is a top 10 second baseman
I promise you that I have been sober for 21 years. I loved Baty coming into the year. A power bat that had shown the ability to make good, consistent contact in the zone. All he needed was a place to play and he got that with all the injuries for the Mets and he… still sucked. Second base also sucks, but while this one is not dead, Baty’s power metrics have cratered to the point that this prediction is on life support. 5% probability. 

Jackson Chourio goes 35/35
The injury hurt this one a ton, but if he were on a 600 plate appearance pace, he would be on pace for a 30/15 season which wouldn’t feel as hopeless as this prediction does now. Projections have him still finishing with a 25/15 type of line for the season which isn’t bad for a guy that missed a chunk of the season. And the power could be even greater. He won’t hit this prediction this year, but I will go back to the well on him in 2027. 8% probability. 

Pete Crow-Armstrong is not a top 40 outfielder
Remember when PCA had a .237/.325/.388 triple slash with seven home runs and 12 stolen bases through May? Yeah, well his 10 homer June has pretty much blown this prediction out of the water. He is now the 4th outfielder on the player rater and while he has the ability to fall apart as he did in the second half last year, it would be a pretty massive implosion for him to fall out of the top 40 at the position. 10% probability. 

Kyle Stowers is not a top 50 outfielder
Stowers was a popular outfield pick after having a breakout season in 2025 with 25 home runs and a .288/.368/.544 triple slash in 457 plate appearances. However, I saw the poor contact skills as a major flaw in his game. That flaw has become wildly apparent this season. He does have eight home runs which isn’t bad after missing time with a hamstring injury to start the season, but the main issue is the 78% zone contact and the 18% swinging strike rate. The power is legitimate, but until he makes more contact, he will have too many cold streaks to be trusted in most fantasy leagues. 70% probability. 

Coby Mayo hits 30 home runs
This one was one I knew was a long shot. The power has never really been in question for Mayo and that has been on display this season, but the dude struggles with breaking and offspeed pitches so much that pitchers just shouldn’t throw them to him.  Surprisingly, the Orioles are still letting him play, but they probably shouldn’t be. He is hitting the ball hard and making league average zone contact, but his launch angle sweet spot is just 4th percentile. I want to believe he will improve, but until he can handle something other than a fastball, I don’t have much faith. 15% probability.