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Waiver Wire Report (8/14/22)

There are a ton of players that made my normal requirement to write about them. For the steady guys who have been around all year, I didn’t provide much info on them.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »


Bullpen Report: August 14, 2022

The 2022 version of Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

  1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
  2. Injury News 
  3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
  4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
  5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save.)

Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.

Read the rest of this entry »


Bullpen Report: August 13, 2022

The 2022 version of the Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

  1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
  2. Injury News
  3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
  4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
  5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).

Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1084 – Ice Cold Hitters

8/12/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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PATREON

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

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00:49:25

Lineup Analysis (8/12/22)

American League

Angels

• David Fletcher (.674 OPS, 2 HR, 0 SB) has leadoff for three straight games.

• Jo Adell has started in seven of the last eight games and is hitting .216/.310/.333 since the All-Star break. Read the rest of this entry »


Choose Your Right-Handed Starters Wisely

Last week we got a little more granular in evaluating our pitching matchups, focusing on how teams have fared against left-handed pitchers, both in terms of overall offense, as well as against individual pitch types. So, in the name of symmetry, let’s move on to right-handers this week, trying to identify weaknesses for matchups this weekend and in Week 19 of fantasy.

No time to waste, let’s go. Read the rest of this entry »


Beat the Shift Podcast – Mets & LABR Update Episode w/ Adam Ronis

The Mets & LABR Update Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Adam Ronis

Softball Team

New York Mets

  • Thoughts on deadline acquisitions
  • Mets postseason bullpen
  • Mets consistency
  • Jacob deGrom rest of season
  • Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week
  • How many wins will the Mets accumulate in 2022?

Read the rest of this entry »

00:57:33

Roto Riteup: August 12, 2022

MLB doesn’t do a lot right, but I love this.

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It’s Time to Start Making Sharp Decisions

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

It’s August 11th. Every team has played at least 110 games leaving just about a third of the season left at most.

That is still plenty of time to make a lot of movement in your standings, but the margin for error has slimmed considerably and for those of you out of the money/in the back half of your standings it is time to start making decisions that directly impact your standings as opposed to simply acquiring the best talent available. Threading the needle and making considerable gains in all 10 categories (assuming a standard 5×5 setup for this discussion) is unlikely in most cases. It’s time to start narrowing the focus and making some tough cuts.

Read the rest of this entry »


With AAA Pitch Clock, Stolen Base Major League Adjustment

On this past weekend’s On The Wire Podcast, there was a discussion surrounding Esteury Ruiz stolen base numbers and the effect of the minor league pitch clock. The gist of the situation can be taken from this Tucker Davidson tweet thread.

The rate of stolen bases is up in the minors as soon as they implemented the change. With the numbers up, I wanted to calculate a simple rule to see how much I should expect a hitter’s stolen base rate to change once promoted, especially rabbits like Ruiz.

For the calculations, needed to set some ground rules. I limited my sample to this season’s hitters who stole four or more bases in AAA. Additionally, they had to go on and have 30 MLB plate appearances. In the end, 40 players met the requirements. I know the sample isn’t the biggest, but I’m just looking at how a hitter’s stolen base rates should change.

For the first test, I compared the stolen base attempt rate ((SB+CS)/(1B+BB+HBP)) in AAA and the majors. In AAA, the median stolen base rate among these guys was 19.5% and it dropped to 10.8% in the majors. When comparing the ratio change (MLB rate/AAA rate) it worked out to 53.5%. So a hitter’s stolen base rate should drop about 50%.

The next test was to look at the success rate. In AAA, this group had an 80.2% success rate and it dropped to 72.1% in the majors. A success of 80% would help a team while 72% hurts their chances of winning.

One final test, what was stolen base per plate appearance change. This value is a quick rule of thumb that takes into account attempts, success, and changes in on-base rate. This value works that the MLB rate is 43% of the AAA numbers.

So going back to Ruiz, here are his expected stolen base rates knowing what he did in AAA.

Esteury Ruiz’s AAA to MLB Stolen Base Rates
SB Stats AAA MLB Estimate
SB Rate 50% 27%
Success Rate 85% 77%
SB/PA 16.2% 7.0%
SB/600PA 97 42

Here are the stolen base per 600 PA values for our projection systems.

Esteury Ruiz’s Stolen Base Projection Rates
Projection SB/600
ZiPS 35
Steamer 40
FGDC 42
THE BAT 31
THE BAT X 37

His projections are close but just a little lower than the value I found. Maybe I should just follow the projections.