Waiver Wire Report (8/14/22)

There are a ton of players that made my normal requirement to write about them. For the steady guys who have been around all year, I didn’t provide much info on them.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Hitters

Vaughn Grissom: The 21-year-old has already made an impact in 7 PA with 3 H, 1 HR, and 1 SB as he plays second base for the Braves. For a hitter making the jump from AA, our Depth Chart projections actually like him (.268/.327/.402). In the minors, he had 14 HR and 27 SB in 442 PA. I’m not sure he’s the best player but he’s not going to be around another week for fantasy managers to find out.

Jake McCarthy: His power might not be the best (.130 ISO, 3 HR in 169 PA), but he has stolen five bases since the All-Star Game. A speed source who is even an average hitter is tough to find.

Oscar Gonzalez: He’s hit .371/.371/.543 since coming off the IL (35 PA) with his groundball rate dropping from 55% before the injury to 45%.

Paul DeJong: He’s providing some power (5 HR) and speed (3 SB) in his 134 PA so far. It’s just that his .188 AVG (.201 xAVG) is a major drag.

Daniel Vogelbach: On the strong side of a DH platoon. He could be a nice streaming option with the Mets facing six righties this upcoming week.

Nick Pratto: He’s made eight straight starts at first base while hitting .197/.308/.395 with 3 HR. He needs to improve on the 33% K% to take a step forward. Also, his 33% StatCast HardHit% is 5% lower than the league average. One of the few full-time power bats available on the waiver wire.

Joey Meneses: In just 30 PA, he’s hit 4 HR with a .370 AVG. Additionally, he’s started three straight (seven of 10) while batting fourth or fifth in the lineup. He’s been one of the few power sources that have come out of nowhere.

Seth Brown: He’s been productive (.749 OPS, 17 HR, 9 SB) when playing on the strong side of a platoon. Next week, Oakland is scheduled to only face four righties.

Luis Rengifo: Batting third with 7 HR, 5 SB, and a .272 AVG. Nice volume play.

Elehuris Montero: The 23-year-old has started 10 straight games while hitting .278/.297/.417 with 1 HR so far. A definite streamer when Colorado is home and possibly startable when on the road.

José Iglesias: Batting average only play who has hit better on the road (.358 AVG) than at home (.278 AVG).

Michael Massey: The 24-year-old has started in eight of the last 10 games and is hitting .333/.385/.389 on the season. The lack of game power (.056 ISO, 28% percentile in MaxEV) is limiting his upside.

Lars Nootbaar: Nootbaar got a nice boost for his starts in Colorado (4 for 9, 4 BB) but his run at everyday at-bats (16 straight starts) might be coming to an end with Juan Yepez about to come off the IL. Nootbaar is not a difference maker (5 HR, 3 SB, .241 AVG in 167 PA) who is on an expected hot streak.

Nick Gordon: Gordon has been acceptable at the plate (5 HR, 5 SB, and .277 AVG in 264 PA) but moves to the bench any time Byron Buxton plays centerfield.

Bubba Thompson: Since being called up, the 24-year-old has struggled to get on base (.192 OBP, 39% K%). Of the four times he has been on base, he has stolen three bases. Huge gamble.

Sam Haggerty: When Haggerty plays, he’s been good (.323/.369/.542, 4 HR, 5 SB). The problem is that he’s only started in seven of the last 10 games while batting eighth or ninth.

David Fletcher: He has leadoff for four straight games. In 45 PA since coming off the IL, he is hitting .333/.364/.548 with 2 HR.

Adam Frazier: A one-week replacement bat with no upside.

Charles Leblanc: He was playing third base but Jon Berti and Brian Anderson can also and both just came off the IL. In 39 PA, Leblanc has been decent (1.105 OPS, 1 HR, 2 SB) but ne needs to play to have any fantasy value.

Darick Hall: He has 8 HR in 119 PA but he only faces righties. For this upcoming week, the Phillies only face four of them.

Tyler Naquin: He starts about half the time and only then against righties.

Aledmys Díaz: He has started in eight of the last 10 games while hitting .258/.310/.427 with 10 HR on the season.

Bryson Stott: On the strong side of a platoon with Edmundo Sosa. On a full-season pace for 14 HR and 10 SB.

Trent Grisham: Grisham (.661 OPS) is on the strong side of a platoon with Wil Myers.

Terrin Vavra: In the 12 games since being called up from the minors, he’s started 10 times at second base, left field, and DH. He’s not showing much in talent besides a nice batting average (.333, 14% K%, .385 BABIP). Projections have him for 10 HR and 10 SB at 600 PA.

Jose Barrero: He has 17 K in 29 PA without a single walk. He’s completely overmatched at this point.

Kerry Carpenter: In AA and AAA, the 24-year-old hit .313/.380/.645 with 30 HR and 3 SB. He mainly played outfield in the minors but in two major league starts, he was the DH. The Tigers have permanent DH in Miguel Cabrera, so Carpenter’s playing time might be limited. I’d wait on rostering him to see how the playing time works out, especially since he already has 6 K in 8 PA. He moves way up this list if the playing time is guaranteed.

Keston Hiura: Hitting .239/.346/.478 with 10 HR and 4 SB while being on the short side of a platoon with Rowdy Tellez. The Brewers are only scheduled to face three lefties this upcoming week.

J.D. Davis: He’s on the short side of a third base platoon with the Giants expected to only face two lefties next week. Ignore.

Catchers

Carson Kelly is hitting .292/.382/.500 since the All-Star break.

Joey Bart is hitting .286/.300/.469 since the All-Star break.

Hitting Prospects

Brett Baty: Hit .312/.406/.544 with 19 HR and 2 SB in AAA. He only has 18 AAA PA.

Josh Jung: Just came off the IL and has just 15 AAA PA.

Jackson Chourio: Hit .324/.373/.600 with 12 HR and 10 SB in A-Ball. In High-A, he’s hit 2 HR, 3 SB, and .254/.325/.403.

Gunnar Henderson: Hit .312/.452/.573 with 8 HR and 12 SB in AA. He is hitting .287/.400/.511 with 9 HR and 5 SB in AAA.

Corbin Carroll: Hit .313/.430/.643 with 16 HR and 20 SB in AA. He is hitting .310/.427/.536 with 4 HR and 9 SB in AAA.

CBS Hitter Rostership Rates
Name Prev Roster% Current Roster% Change%
Trent Grisham CF SD 38% 40% 2%
Seth Brown 1B OAK 34% 43% 9%
Carson Kelly C ARI 34% 39% 5%
Corbin Carroll CF ARI 32% 35% 3%
Adam Frazier 2B SEA 29% 32% 3%
Bryson Stott 2B PHI 26% 29% 3%
Jose Iglesias SS COL 23% 33% 10%
Joey Bart C SF 22% 29% 7%
Aledmys Diaz LF HOU 21% 27% 6%
Oscar Gonzalez RF CLE 19% 23% 4%
Gunnar Henderson SS BAL 18% 21% 3%
Luis Rengifo 2B LAA 17% 22% 5%
Darick Hall DH PHI 16% 22% 6%
Josh Jung 3B TEX 16% 19% 3%
Tyler Naquin LF NYM 15% 23% 8%
Nick Pratto 1B KC 15% 17% 2%
Daniel Vogelbach DH NYM 14% 22% 8%
Brett Baty 3B NYM 13% 15% 2%
Michael Massey 2B KC 10% 19% 9%
Jake McCarthy RF ARI 9% 12% 3%
Paul DeJong SS STL 8% 26% 18%
Jackson Chourio CF MIL 8% 10% 2%
Keston Hiura 1B MIL 6% 8% 2%
Bubba Thompson LF TEX 5% 9% 4%
Jose Barrero SS CIN 5% 7% 2%
David Fletcher SS LAA 5% 7% 2%
Vaughn Grissom 2B ATL 4% 49% 45%
Nick Gordon LF MIN 4% 18% 14%
Elehuris Montero 3B COL 4% 16% 12%
Lars Nootbaar RF STL 4% 10% 6%
J.D. Davis 3B SF 3% 5% 2%
Kerry Carpenter DH DET 2% 10% 8%
Terrin Vavra SS BAL 1% 4% 3%
Charles Leblanc 3B MIA 1% 3% 2%
Sam Haggerty RF SEA 1% 3% 2%
Joey Meneses 1B WAS 0% 5% 5%

Starters

Justin Steele: His last start was the first time he went completely fastball-slider this season and dominated the Nationals (6.0 IP, 9 K, 0 BB, 2 ER).

Mitch Keller: Remains elite since going to the sinker (3.27 ERA, 3.78 xFIP, 7.1 K/9, 1.34 WHIP, 52% GB%).

Aaron Civale: In his first start since coming off the IL, he threw 62 pitches and lasted only 4 IP. It was an encouraging start with his average fastball velocity at 92.0 mph. He has a nice two-step against the Tigers and White Sox next week.

Graham Ashcraft: The combination of low walks (2.1 BB/9) and 53% GB% has him as a streamable option, especially since he faces the Pirates next week.

Dane Dunning: Dunning has been better since returning from the IL (ankle). His average fastball velocity is up over 1 mph. His groundball rate has increased from 53% to 59%. That’s about the extent of the improvements with his K%-BB% just going from 11.1% to 11.6%. He is probably worth streaming against Oakland next week.

Drew Smyly: Smyly has been a different pitcher since coming off the IL (oblique). The biggest change is with his strikeout rate increasing from 7.2 K/9 to 8.7 K/9. The strikeout gains are from backing off throwing his cutter. His cutter generated the lowest amount of swing-and-miss from his pitches, but does have a 56% GB%. His 3.83 xFIP makes him a second-half streaming option especially against Washington this week.

Eduardo Rodriguez: He’s tough to rank. He threw 53 pitches in his last rehab start

One report has his fastball averaging 90.8 mph.

The lowest his fastball velocity has ever been was 92.0 mph earlier this season when he posted career-worst strikeout and walk rates. Roster but don’t start.

José Suarez: Over his last three starts (OAK x2, KCR) he has not allowed a run while striking out 16 batters in 17 IP. During these last three starts, he quit throwing his sinker (7% SwStr%) completely and dropped the usage of his curve (7% SwStr%). And now he’s throwing his slider (14% SwStr%) more.

Matt Manning: I’m backing off on Manning as he struggles through the season. A .224 BABIP has helped keep his ERA (2.25) and WHIP (1.10) down. I was worried about his velocity being down, but as I write this, his average fastball velocity is up about 1.5 mph to 94.2 mph. There are so many changes going on to peg down his value. He does get the Angels next week.

Kris Bubic: Since the All-Star break, he’s been decent with a 2.92 ERA, 4.05 xFIP, 8.0 K/9, 47% GB%, and 1.33 WHIP. The big improvement is with his walk rate dropping from 5.0 BB/9 to 3.3 BB/9. Also, his K%-BB% went from 6% to 13%. He’s reached the point where I’d use him as a streaming option.

Kyle Bradish: I see Bradish as a streaming option even though a .370 BABIP driven up his 6.42 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Only the extremely brave and/or stupid will run Brashish out against Toronto and Boston next week.

Kyle Freeland: He has two road starts coming up against St. Louis and San Francisco. He has been decent on the road this year with a 3.53 ERA, 4.11 xFIP, 1.23 WHIP, and 7. 7 K/9. For some teams, it’ll be worth streaming him.

James Kaprielian: He has two starts against Texas and Seattle next week so I’m interested in him but it’s tough to peg his talent. His season-long stats are horrible (4.28 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 6.3 K/9), but he’s been good for stretches (possibly when he faces weak teams). For example, since the All-Star break, he has a 2.11 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 7.6 K/9 but with a 4.71 xFIP. Desperate gamble.

JP Sears: Sears has a nice two-start week against Texas and Seattle. In his three starts this season, he has a 1.13 ERA (4.59 xFIP), 0.95 WHIP, and 5.1 K/9). Like several guys featured today, the matchups are great but the pitcher’s talent is unknown.

Jordan Lyles: Lyles is in a two-step against Toronto and Tampa and faces Boston next week. His stats show his current talent level with a 4.35 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and 7.3 K/9.

Ryan Pepiot: His 6.5 BB/9 finally caught up with him when he allowed 4 ER in 4 IP in his last start. His 22% GB% caught up with him as well since he allowed two home runs in that start. I have no desire to roster an extreme flyball pitcher with a major walk issue.

Yusei Kikuchi: His 5.2 BB/9 has him unrosterable in all formats. The walks are both an ERA and WHIP killer.

Kyle Muller: Muller finally got called up after dropping his AAA walk rate to 2.5 BB/9. And with that chance, he walked six batters in two innings. Ignore until the walks are under control.

Tommy Henry: He has only thrown 12 MLB innings but had an 8.3 K/9, 1.34 WHIP, and a 3.83 ERA. A .171 BABIP is the only reason his major league stats (3.75 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) look reasonable.

DL Hall: In Hall’s MLB debut he was as advertised with 6 K and 3 BB in 3.2 IP (76 pitches). Tons of walks and strikeouts as seen by his AAA numbers (14.7 K/9, 5.7 BB/9). The problem is that Hall is going to move to the bullpen for the stretch run.

Justin Dunn: Dunn continues to have issues with walks (6.0 BB/9 for his career, 5.5 BB/9 in AAA rehab, 2 BB in 4.2 IP) and they’ll keep him from being rosterable. Also, he looks to still be allowing a ton of flyballs (37% GB% in AA, 17% in one start) and therefore home runs. Walks plus home runs is bad.

Tyler Glasnow: There is a non-zero chance he returns a throws a couple of innings. Still useless.

 

CBS Starter Rostership Rates
Name Prev Roster% Current Roster% Change%
Yusei Kikuchi SP TOR 39% 44% 5%
Graham Ashcraft SP CIN 35% 41% 6%
Aaron Civale SP CLE 33% 40% 7%
Jordan Lyles SP BAL 31% 39% 8%
Tyler Glasnow SP TB 29% 34% 5%
Eduardo Rodriguez SP DET 27% 29% 2%
Mitch Keller SP PIT 25% 29% 4%
Justin Steele SP CHC 24% 36% 12%
James Kaprielian SP OAK 19% 27% 8%
Matt Manning SP DET 18% 22% 4%
DL Hall RP BAL 17% 23% 6%
Dane Dunning SP TEX 16% 22% 6%
Kyle Freeland SP COL 15% 20% 5%
Kris Bubic SP KC 11% 16% 5%
Ryan Pepiot SP LAD 10% 16% 6%
Drew Smyly SP CHC 7% 10% 3%
Kyle Muller SP ATL 7% 9% 2%
JP Sears RP OAK 5% 8% 3%
Kyle Bradish SP BAL 5% 7% 2%
Jose Suarez SP LAA 4% 17% 13%
Tommy Henry SP ARI 2% 5% 3%
Justin Dunn SP CIN 2% 4% 2%

Relievers – Saves-based ranks

Rowan Wick: Below-average reliever who is the closer.

Ian Kennedy: OK reliever who looks to be the closer.

Alexis Díaz: Good reliever who should get most of the Saves.

Jonathan Hernández: Decent reliever who is the closer for now.

Wil Crowe: OK reliever who is currently closing.

Ryan Tepera: OK closer who seems to be the closer … maybe.

Andrés Muñoz: Excellent reliever who is the backup closer.

Erik Swanson: Great reliever who is a couple of steps away from closing.

Brock Burke: Excellent multi-inning reliever

Alex Vesia: Good reliever who is a few steps away from closing.

CBS Reliever Rostership Rates
Name Prev Roster% Current Roster% Change%
Jonathan Hernandez RP TEX 21% 36% 15%
Alexis Diaz RP CIN 18% 22% 4%
Brock Burke RP TEX 18% 20% 2%
Rowan Wick RP CHC 15% 27% 12%
Andres Munoz RP SEA 15% 17% 2%
Wil Crowe RP PIT 12% 15% 3%
Ian Kennedy RP ARI 10% 20% 10%
Ryan Tepera RP LAA 9% 12% 3%
Erik Swanson RP SEA 3% 5% 2%
Alex Vesia RP LAD 2% 5% 3%





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR once, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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pgburantmember
1 month ago

I think you are looking at muller’s numbers from his first start this year. He did better yesterday, but got optioned after the game.

HunterPants
1 month ago
Reply to  pgburant

You are correct. 5ip, 3 hits, 1bb, 5ks 2 runs for muller