Dual role pitcher profiled at RotoWire.

• Alzolay, Quantrill, Suarez (x2), Thompson (x2), C Hernandez ($)
• Javier, Lamet, Rasmussen, Steele, M. Perez, Cortes, Espino, Stripling, Long, Houck ($)

Deep League Starting Pitchers

• Kaprielian, Taillon, Carrasco, and Ober
• Bauer, Plesac, Kikuchi, Gonsolin, and Greinke
• Matz, Megill, Sanchez, and Walker
• Lauer, Hernandez, Heaney, and Flexen
• Pivetta, Strasburg, Paddack, and Singer
• Patino, Cobb, Luzardo, and Gibson
• Kluber, Greene, Dunning, and Pineda
• Germán, Corbin, Pearson, and Houser
• Hill, Hudson, Miley, and Detmers
• Weaver, Bumgarner, Bundy, and Mikolas
• Kelly, Minor, Odorizzi, and Eflin
• Contreras, Wacha, Brubaker, and Lynch
• Rodriguez, Cabrera, Yarbrough, and Gil
• Bubic, Manning, Gomber, Lodolo, and Sanmartin
• Irvin, Beede, Keller, and Lorenzen

Read the rest of this entry »

Over the last few years the industry has begun to focus on NFBC leagues more and more. It is not because it is the most popular format in spite of its growth. It is because, on average, it has more competitive leagues due to the cost involved. This allows for a better average draft position. While ADP is not the end all be all, it can give us some insight into the market and if you have competing markets, it is good to compare them and see what information can be exploited. In this series of articles, I will look at the places where NFBC ADP is higher than the four other major platforms in an attempt to point out potential deals for those of you not playing on NFBC.  Read the rest of this entry »

FYI: I won’t be chatting on Wednesday, February 23rd. There will be a Top 100 Prospects chat in that timeslot!

First things first, what’s the difference between a breakout and sleeper? Breakouts are about a new level of performance while sleepers are about where a player is drafted. I started my Sleeper series (Vol. 1) and identified the 21st round as the beginning of the sleeper pool. That first edition focused on 15-teamers so I started at pick-300 (I’ll have 10- and 12-team iterations coming, too). A breakout can come from the 2nd round if they ascend to a top 3-5 player, but I am looking for breakouts outside of the first 4 rounds so pick-60 in 15-teamers, 48 in 12s (which will be today’s focus), and 40 in 10s.

• Volume 1: 15-team Breakouts

Daulton Varsho | Arizona Diamondbacks, C/OF | 94 ADP

A catcher who runs and doesn’t always have to play behind the dish to get on the field is what fantasy darlings are made of and Varsho certainly has many proponents. A sharp second half (.879 OPS, 10 HR, 5 SB in 219 PA) has his biggest fans buying in completely while also bringing aboard some new fans. The real beauty with Varsho is the fact that he will likely spend most of his time in the outfield which gives him a potentially huge edge in volume over many other star catchers. That hasn’t been reflected in the projections with a high of 112 games, but if Carson Kelly stays healthy and holds the full-time catcher role, then Varsho could log north of 125 games with 100+ coming in the outfield. He has a great shot to deliver double-digit stolen bases, too, something that has been done just four times by a catcher since 2010 (J.T. Realmuto 2x in ’16 and ’21, Yadier Molina in ’12, and Jason Kendall in ’10).

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Let’s return without delay to the task at hand, which we began last week: our attempt to identify at least one lightly-regarded (cheap or reserve-round) player who might do something this season, assuming with unwarranted optimism that there’s a “this season” that isn’t next season. This week, we’ll look at the AL West and the NL East. The numbers in parentheses are NFBC Average Draft Positions for all drafts.

Angels: As we mentioned in our first article of the year, we like Michael Stefanic (not taken), who could be in the lineup if either something ill befalls David Fletcher or the team doesn’t sign a free-agent shortstop. He’ll hit .270, possibly with a bit of power. And we are struggling to overcome our repeated disappointments in Justin Upton (586) over the years. It’s not clear that he’s got a significant role on this team, but we can imagine him getting the same 250 or so PAs he got last year before he got hurt, and hitting about the same (14 HR, .247) minus some age-related decline, which makes him worth getting at ADP 586.

Read the rest of this entry »

Over the last few years the industry has begun to focus on NFBC leagues more and more. It is not because it is the most popular format in spite of its growth. It is because, on average, it has more competitive leagues due to the cost involved. This allows for a better average draft position. While ADP is not the end all be all, it can give us some insight into the market and if you have competing markets, it is good to compare them and see what information can be exploited. In this series of articles, I will look at the places where NFBC ADP is higher than the four other major platforms in an attempt to point out potential deals for those of you not playing on NFBC. 

NFBC Versus ESPN

Trea Turner (NFBC ADP: 1.4, ESPN ADP: 13.2)- See the piece in this series on second basemen. 

Tim Anderson (35.12, 120.9)- This is another amazing deal over on ESPN when Anderson is going in the second or third round of leagues in the industry and on NFBC. 

Trevor Story (36.02, 112.4)- I understand with Story’s lack of home and disappointing end to 2021 him falling, but this is a bit extreme. There really isn’t a spot he could land where I would think this price wouldn’t still be a steal. 

Bobby Witt Jr. (89.83, 212.8)- I think Witt’s price in NFBC is extreme, but this is on the complete other end of the spectrum. The truth is likely in the middle somewhere. 

Javy Baez (63.52, 167.5)- See the piece in this series on second basemen. 

Jazz Chisholm (72.62, 229.5)- See the piece in this series on second basemen.  

Amed Rosario (148.2, 236)- Rosario is one of the guys that gets pushed down on other sites because so much of the ADP is catering to points leagues where he speed is less valuable. This presents a buying opportunity for getting really cheap speed when you wouldn’t have the chance in more competitive leagues. 

Luis Urias (153.54, 206.8)- See the piece in this series on second basemen. 

Willy Adames (166.49, 239.2)- This is another one I don’t really understand. Once he was traded to Milwaukee, Adames was fantastic and offers power and speed with enough average to not hurt you. He shouldn’t be outside the top 200 picks. 

Brendan Rodgers (172.02, 234.1)- See the piece in this series on second basemen. 

Dansby Swanson (123.56, 174.6)- I have been the anti-Swanson guy in the industry for a long time, but I am actually ok with his NFBC price this season which means I love his price on ESPN. 

Chris Taylor (139.15, 193.8)- See the piece in this series on second basemen.  

O’Neil Cruz (205.86, 259.1)- I love Cruz, but considering we don’t know when he will be up and he is on the Pirates, I am not surprised by the disrespect. I would be stoked to get him at this price though as he is one of my most drafted players already this year on NFBC. 

NFBC Versus Yahoo

Bobby Witt Jr. (NFBC ADP: 89.83, Yahoo ADP: 212.8)- See Above.

Amed Rosario (148.2, 244.8)- See Above. 

Luis Urias (153.54, 249.8)-  See the piece in this series on second basemen. 

NFBC Versus CBS 

Amed Rosario (NFBC ADP: 148.2, CBS ADP: 265)- See Above. 

Nicky Lopez (236.96, 298.25)- I think that Lopez is penalized from the points league formats on CBS because while I think many people expect him to regress in 2022, an almost 300 ADP is way too low for a guy with his speed and contact skills. 

Andres Gimenez (236.38, 317)- See the piece in this series on second basemen. 

Josh Rojas (225.73, 286)- See the piece in this series on second basemen. 

NFBC Versus Fantrax

Andres Gimienez (NFBC ADP: 236.38, Fantrax ADP: 331.08)- See the piece in this series on second basemen. 

Jonathan Villar- (266.71, 326.31)- I would expect Villar’s price to rise quite a bit on both site once we know where he is landing and the role he will have. 

Amed Rosario (148.2, 202.17)- See Above. 

Gio Urshela (278.93, 319.09)- Urshela is a good price on NFBC, so that means I like him a lot on Fantrax and even more on a place like Yahoo, where he is being undrafted this season. 

2/22/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

PATREON

• Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show
• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

CATCHER PREVIEW

The Studs (4:46)

• Salvador Perez, J.T. Realmuto, Will Smith

The Potential Game-Changer (10:18)

• Daulton Varsho

The Steady Vets (19:19)

• Yasmani Grandal, Willson Contreras

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Dual role pitcher profiled at RotoWire.

• Alzolay, Quantrill, Suarez (x2), Thompson (x2), C Hernandez ($)
• Javier, Lamet, Rasmussen, Steele, M. Perez, Cortes, Espino, Stripling, Long, Houck ($)

Deep League Starting Pitchers

• Kaprielian, Taillon, Carrasco, and Ober
• Bauer, Plesac, Kikuchi, Gonsolin, and Greinke
• Matz, Megill, Sanchez, and Walker
• Lauer, Hernandez, Heaney, and Flexen
• Pivetta, Strasburg, Paddack, and Singer
• Patino, Cobb, Luzardo, and Gibson
• Kluber, Greene, Dunning, and Pineda
• Germán, Corbin, Pearson, and Houser
• Hill, Hudson, Miley, and Detmers
• Weaver, Bumgarner, Bundy, and Mikolas
• Kelly, Minor, Odorizzi, and Eflin
• Contreras, Wacha, Brubaker, and Lynch
• Rodriguez, Cabrera, Yarbrough, and Gil
• Bubic, Manning, Gomber, Lodolo, & Sanmartin

Read the rest of this entry »

The latest episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Brian Bannister – Director of Pitching, San Francisco Giants (& former major league player with NYM/KCR)

Interview

• Highlight of career
  • Coaching highlight
  • Major league pitching highlight
  • Mets highlight
• Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week
• Impact on college team
• Analytics
  • Some of the current analytics being used
  • Having a hunch and then researching it when the analytics tools are available
  • Impact on current team
  • Using all of the tools at your disposal
  • Studying the outliers & great players to find success for current players
  • Organizations differ in analytics use
  • What are some analytics used by teams that aren’t available publically?
  • VAA, Seam Shifted Wake, etc.
  • Learning from the uniqueness of players
  • Using analytics to play to a player’s strengths vs. exploiting an opponent’s weaknesses

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Podcast (beat-the-shift): Play in new window | Download

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Over the last few years the industry has begun to focus on NFBC leagues more and more. It is not because it is the most popular format in spite of its growth. It is because, on average, it has more competitive leagues due to the cost involved. This allows for a better average draft position. While ADP is not the end all be all, it can give us some insight into the market and if you have competing markets, it is good to compare them and see what information can be exploited. In this series of articles, I will look at the places where NFBC ADP is higher than the four other major platforms in an attempt to point out potential deals for those of you not playing on NFBC. 

Read the rest of this entry »

2/21/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @glenncolton1 – Glenn Colton, Guest

PATREON

• Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS