Arguing price is something that has been going down since currency was made out of copper coins and some of the coins had holes in the middle. In today’s world, price negotiators say things like, “$3.15 a gallon for gas?! You’re out of your mind!” or “I’m not paying over $3 for a watermelon, I’m just not!” Whether you’re the type to wait for a sale on underwear or the type to just go and pay what you pay because, well, you need it, all of us can relate to the idea of arguing a price. In my last piece on Kyle Freeland, I made the case that he’s worth $4. I was immediately argued with (politely, that is) about that price, and you know what? I may be overpaying. But, that’s the beauty of price! It’s here, it’s there, it’s really up for debate. So, let’s do it, let’s try this: Garrett Hampson is not worth $8 in FanGraphs points Ottoneu leagues. Here’s why:

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I recently took over an Ottoneu team for the upcoming 2022 season. If you are unfamiliar with Ottoneu, it’s keeper league where you get to make trades from mid-November to January 31st. Any players left on your roster after that you keep, using the auction draft to fill in the missing pieces. Taking over someone else’s team kind of feels like moving into an empty office. There are a few cobwebs in the corner, the previous owner left a really cool pen in the desk drawer and there’s a very stinky sandwich in the staff refrigerator that you somehow feel like is your new responsibility.

The fun part is taking stock of what you have and trying to decide what you want to keep (cool pen) and what you want to cut (stinky sandwich). In this series of posts, I’ll write about the decisions I have to make, how I go about analyzing the data before making my decision, and then what decision I plan to make. You too could be doing this kind of thing, all you have to do is take over someone’s abandoned team and search through the desk drawers when you move in.

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There are a number of players who have seen a change in playing time post-trade deadline. Abraham Toro moved into a near everyday role upon Alex Bregman’s injury and was consistently hitting towards the bottom of the order. But, since being traded to Seattle, Toro has found himself hitting in the 5 spot, keeping his everyday role intact, only at second base rather than third. It is likely that Toro would have found himself back on the bench, or worse, as Bregman nears a return from injury. Since moving to Seattle, Toro still does not have the most crystal clear path towards an everyday role, but it’s getting clearer. The Mariners Depth Chart shows a lot of interchangeable pieces and it’s not clear whether or not Toro will continue to fill the 2B spot if his bat begins to go quiet. Regardless, Toro has made an impact with his new club, has begun appearing on many analysts’ waiver wire feeds, and has hit from the leadoff spot in his two most recent appearances. Let’s take a dive down the rabbit hole and see what Toro’s game is all about. 

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The Is It Too Early Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Ian Kahn

Strategy Section

• Is it too early?
  • Is it too early for individual scoring categories to matter?
  • Is it too early to play the matchups based on category standings?
  • Is it too early to punt categories or to alter your pre-season strategy?
  • Is it too early to evaluate how you did at the draft table?
  • Is it too early to cut a player that you spent meaningful draft capital on?

Hot / Cold Starts

• Cold Players
  • Patrick Corbin
  • Luis Castillo
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
  • Francisco Lindor
• Hot Players
  • Cedric Mullins
  • Byron Buxton
  • Jazz Chisholm
  • Matthew Boyd
  • Danny Duffy

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To say the least, the 2020 fantasy baseball season will go down as a one-of-kind. A late start led to a 60 game sprint. Seven-inning double-headers. Weeks of rescheduled games because of COVID-19 positive tests. The National League DH. Twenty-eight-man rosters in September. Each of these on its own would fill the headlines. With the changes coming all at once, they felt overwhelming. I’m hoping to calm everyone if any and hopefully not all of the changes happen again. Here is some advice on how to handle the changes.

The help divided up into league setting and individual manager focus. While I inserted plenty of my own advice, I wanted to make sure as many people as possible contributed so Tweeted out and asked during my chat for input.
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A new Ottoneu league has recently formed with a twist – despite the deep, dynasty-like structure of the platform, our league has decided on a single rule change this year: players without MLB experience (“rookies”) are ineligible for the annual spring player auction.  Instead, rookies may only be added to rosters through an in-season free agent player auction once they have accumulated their first MLB PA or IP.  Yes, this means Luis Robert cannot be owned (48 hour auction waiting period) until he completes his first PA, most likely to come on Opening Day (3/26) against the Royals.

This one simple rule change impacts a tremendous amount of Ottoneu strategy, a discussion for which I’ll reserve a future post.  For now, the purpose of this article is to list the rookies that have at least some opportunity to debut in 2020, and estimate which of these prospects might actually have some relevant fantasy impact this season.

The table below lists 130+ prospects that could potentially make their initial MLB rookie debut in 2020.  All players with existing MLB experience (Gavin Lux, Jesus Luzardo, Dustin May) have been removed.  The three columns to the far right should be the most useful:

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This winter, I’ve gotten in the habit of running polls about interesting trades in my patron dynasty league DTBNL. It’s a 25-team, keep-30 format. It’s a certified “deep league.” There are deeper leagues of the 30-team variety, but they are rare. By virtue of these polls, I’ve noticed some apparent misconceptions about prospect value in ultra-deep settings.

Yesterday, for an unknown league, Shelly Verougstraete ran a poll pitting Trevor Bauer against Jeter Downs, Taylor Trammell, and Josiah Gray.

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Using a format similar to the one Justin Mason recently posted for 2020 Roto player rankings, below is the 2020 ranking of the Top 100 Starting Pitchers for Ottoneu fantasy baseball.  Ottoneu leagues are auction style, but with no salaries listed (league dependent), think of these lists as simplified “snake draft” rankings (“which player would I take before the next”), or a value ranking of players above replacement level for 2020. Players with multi-position eligibility may receive a slight bump in value (2020 positions listed).  You can reference average Ottoneu player salaries here, but keep in mind these salaries fluctuate throughout the winter as rosters shape up towards today’s keeper deadline for all leagues.

Previous 2020 Ottoneu rankings:

First Base

Third Base

Middle Infielders

Shortstop

Second Base

Outfield

Since a majority of Ottoneu leagues are points leagues (pitching based on linear weights), WHIP and Wins are less of a factor here than in traditional rotisserie rankings.  Even if you don’t play Ottoneu, this list might be a good proxy for sabermetric leagues, so keep that context in mind as you review. “P/IP” represents the projected points per innings pitched from Steamer projections and their estimated innings total.

If I’ve missed an important player, or you believe I’ve wildly over or under-valued someone, please let me know in the comments and I’ll be sure to update.

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The Ottoneu keeper deadline is fast approaching (11:59 PM EST), but many leagues use this date to set rosters before the season really begins.  I polled several owners of the Ottoneu community recently for their keeper deadline advice, so hopefully you’ll find some application for the thoughts below. Consider this a keeper Q&A for new players, but even if you don’t play Ottoneu, feel free to post your most difficult deadline decisions in the comments and I’ll do my best to weigh in.

Brad recently covered some specific Ottoneu keeper deadline advice here.

Q: What process do you use to determine the best number of players to keep on your Ottoneu roster?

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Over the last week, a scandal has rocked the quiet rural community of Dynasty To Be Named Later (DTBNL). My attempts to chronicle the tale have undoubtedly made matters worse. For a full accounting of events, see Episode 1: Quantity Versus Quality and Episode 2: Dances With Rules.

If you’d rather read the short version of this heady action-thriller, here goes. Last time on Dynasty Drama…

Brad traded of Luis Urias, Cristian Pache, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Taylor Trammell for Christian Yelich. He’s also the commissioner of DTBNL, a 25-team, keep-30 dynasty league. Outrage ensued, and the former Yelich-owner was peer-pressured into revoking the trade under the “24-hour revocability” rule in the league constitution. However, the revocation occurred during the 26th hour after the trade which led to extra-constitutional hijinx as the commissioner attempted to fairly resolve the dispute while simultaneously defending his interests…

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