Archive for Dynasty

The Anatomy of a Ottoneu Dynasty Rebuild: Part 4, Ahead of Schedule

We’re about a month into the season now which means you’re probably getting a good feel for the direction your fantasy teams are headed this year. Maybe your roster has been wracked with injuries or you’ve hit the jackpot on the sleepers you picked up this offseason. This year, I’ve been writing up my experience of rebuilding my Ottoneu team in League 32 – Fantasy Field of Dreams; I’ve covered making the initial decision to rebuild, some general draft strategy for rebuilding clubs, and the dilemma I faced with the draft this year. Now is a pretty good time to check in on how things are progressing for The Wanderers.

The Draft

Before we dive in on what’s going on with the team now that the regular season is underway, I want to take a quick moment to recap what happened in the draft. If you remember, I had a significant amount of cash to spend on relatively few roster spots. I was targeting a starting second baseman and a high-end outfielder while spreading the rest of my cap space out between some depth options.

Folks, let me tell you, I seriously underestimated the amount of inflation present in the league. My top target, Mookie Betts, went for $70 and I drove the price up that high in a bidding war with the eventual winner. I just couldn’t bring myself to bid that one extra dollar after he hit that $70 threshold. There were a number of points in the draft where I had to bow out of the bidding on a target because the eventual price was just getting too high. I felt some particular pressure trying to find an outfielder; I had shifted my eyes towards some of the mid-tier options after some salary cap opened up by missing out on Betts. I let Masataka Yoshida ($35), Christian Yelich ($27), Jesse Winker ($28), Nick Castellanos ($26), and Cedric Mullins ($22) all go to other players after their salaries got too high and eventually settled for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. at $16. I did end up getting a couple of my high priority targets — Bryce Harper ($43), Spencer Steer ($8), Spencer Torkelson ($9), and Reid Detmers ($11) — but I felt like I was on the back foot during the entire draft, continually making contingency plans as players came off the board with values way over what I was comfortable with.

Here are the 10 players I had selected by the end of the draft:

2023 Draft Results
Player Salary Pts/G/IP
Bryce Harper $43 N/A
Brandon Lowe $27 5.79
Spencer Steer $8 5.24
Clarke Schmidt $11 1.81
Spencer Torkelson $9 3.21
Reid Detmers $11 3.41
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. $16 4.05
Hayden Wesneski $6 1.43
Kyle Manzardo $3 N/A
Eric Haase $1 2.54

Brandon Lowe turned out to be a pretty good backup pick after missing out on Betts, though most of the other available second basemen in the draft have performed rather well to start this season too. Steer has looked great and Gurriel has been okay. The pitching depth I picked up hasn’t been all that impressive, but all three of them are young and still have the potential to breakout that made them such enticing options. It wasn’t the most successful draft I’ve ever had, but it wasn’t terrible, particularly considering how wayward my plans went.

Breakouts!

On April 26, my team is currently sitting in sixth place, less than 500 points behind first place and right in the middle of a group of seven teams separated by less than 100 points.

League 32 Standings
Team Points P/G P/IP
Spuds and Zucchini 🥔 3098.7 5.50 5.69
Down by the Schoolyard 2966.9 5.18 6.18
Beck Panthers 2960.1 5.18 5.39
Old Skool Ballers 2686.7 5.18 4.77
Ignacio Beardfacio 2672.9 5.06 5.22
The Wanderers 🚶‍♂️ 2631.7 5.31 4.91
Gausman Turner Overdrive 🎸 2629.5 4.67 5.97
Sharky’s Goonies ☠️ 2617.1 4.93 5.00
Sunflower Seed Finger ☝️ 2613.7 5.51 4.28
No Vacancy 2599.3 4.64 5.43
Everyone On The Right Base 2507.2 4.94 4.69
StringerBias™️ 2114.8 4.52 3.29
As of April 26

I have the third best offense in the league thanks to breakouts from Wander Franco (7.56 Pts/G), Jarred Kelenic (8.56), and Steer (5.24) and solid bounce back seasons from Max Muncy (8.73) and Lowe (5.79). My pitching hasn’t been as great, sitting eighth in the league by points per inning pitched. I’m not as worried about that, but it’s probably the area of the team that could use the most help at this point. All things considered, I’m extremely happy with where my team sits in the standings. Thanks to those handful of breakouts, it’s going a lot better than expected.

The big thing that could potentially have a huge impact on the direction of my team is Bryce Harper’s impending return. The latest reports have him possibly being activated as soon as early May. That might be optimistic, but he’s clearly ahead of schedule and should be contributing much earlier in the season than expected. Getting four months of production from him this year instead of the expected one or two means my team has a significant source of points that will be added to the roster — something very few other teams can claim. There’s no guarantee that he’ll produce up to his usual superstar standards, but if he does, my already great offense will only get better.

Churn Baby, Churn

One of the most important early season tasks for a rebuilding team is to churn through the waiver wire searching for potential undrafted breakouts. Every team does this as they deal with injuries and underperformance, but it’s particularly important for a team like mine since I need to infuse my roster with talent however I can. I’ve added ten players off the waiver wire, kept seven of them and have already completed an early season trade.

The Wanderers Transaction Log
Player Transaction Type Date Salary
Brock Burke add 3/28/2023 $3
Jonathan Hernández add 3/28/2023 $1
Nolan Jones cut 3/28/2023 $5
Jack Leiter cut 3/28/2023 $4
Dylan Dodd add 4/1/2023 $3
Marco Luciano cut 4/1/2023 $3
Jimmy Herget add 4/2/2023 $1
Jimmy Herget cut 4/2/2023 $1
Luis García (WSN) add 4/9/2023 $3
Kolten Wong cut 4/9/2023 $6
Kris Bubic add 4/12/2023 $6
Oscar Gonzalez cut 4/12/2023 $3
Chas McCormick add 4/15/2023 $3
Jonah Heim add 4/15/2023 $1
Eric Haase cut 4/15/2023 $1
Tony Gonsolin add 4/16/2023 $9
Kris Bubic cut 4/16/2023 $6
Ian Hamilton add 4/21/2023 $1
Dylan Dodd cut 4/21/2023 $3
Jazz Chisholm Jr. trade in 4/25/2023 $9
Kyle Manzardo trade out 4/25/2023 $3

Immediately following the draft, I started a couple of auctions for a pair of relievers I thought had some upside to chase. Brock Burke hasn’t been great (5.93 Pts/IP) but Jonathan Hernández (7.71) has been solid in high leverage work for the Rangers. Dylan Dodd looked like a promising pickup after he received an early season callup for the Braves but I ended up cutting him a few weeks later after Atlanta sent him back down to the minors. I like the improvements Luis Garíca has made to his approach at the plate and I believe in his potential to breakout this season so that was a pretty easy waiver claim after another team dropped him. I grabbed Kris Bubic after his two promising starts but his breakout was short lived after undergoing Tommy John surgery a week after adding him. Jonah Heim replaced Eric Haase as my backup catcher which has definitely worked out for the better. Tony Gonsolin was another waiver claim after another team dropped him and hopefully he can provide some upside for my pitching staff.

As for my cuts, Jack Leiter and Marco Luciano were both too expensive as prospects to keep around, especially considering the challenges they’ve faced in their development. I might regret cutting Nolan Jones if the Rockies ever give him a chance to play in the majors since he’s absolutely destroying Triple-A, but that chance might not ever materialize. When they did call him up, he sat on the bench for three games and then was sent back down without a single plate appearance. Kolten Wong’s and Oscar Gonzalez’s frigid cold starts to the season made them both easy cuts. After all that churn, I’ve got a single dollar in available cap space which puts me at a pretty significant disadvantage for the rest of the season. I’ll need to work on finding ways to clear some cap space so I can continue working the waiver wire as new breakouts popup.

The one trade I completed was a complete surprise. I woke up one morning with the offer in my inbox, sleepily considered it for a few moments, and then slammed the accept button. Kyle Manzardo is a good prospect and he’s gotten off to a strong start in Triple-A this year, but his path to the majors is currently blocked. I picked him up in the draft for exactly this reason; he had some helium as a prospect and I knew I could probably gain a pretty solid piece for him in the middle of the season. I just didn’t expect it to come so soon. Jazz Chisholm hasn’t gotten off to a strong start this year — his 37.8% strikeout rate is particularly concerning — but the talent is certainly there and his salary makes him an easy keeper if he finds a way to repeat his breakout from last year. That’s not a guarantee, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take with the added benefit of him possibly impacting my team this year.

With Harper’s return looming, Chisholm and Gonsolin raising the potential ceiling of my roster, and all the breakouts hitting at once, this team is in a much better position than should be expected at this point in the rebuilding cycle. I’m not sure the roster is good enough to challenge for a top-3 spot in the standings yet, but the foundation I’ve built is definitely solid enough to luck my way into contention if things continue going well. I’ll have to fight against the urge to make a series of “win now” moves this summer if I’m still stuck inside the large pack of teams in the middle of the standings. That might give me an edge over those other mid-tier teams, but it would be a big risk and a potential setback for the work I’ve been doing to prepare my team for the future.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: April 28–30

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

April 28–30
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
TOR 0.326 105 SEA 0.303
MIN 0.306 96 KCR 0.272
DET 0.268 93 BAL 0.331
MIA 0.299 93 CHC 0.350
WSN 0.294 104 PIT 0.334
BOS 0.333 100 CLE 0.292
NYM 0.326 97 ATL 0.345
CHW 0.299 108 TBR 0.385
TEX 0.343 101 NYY 0.308
HOU 0.319 102 PHI 0.344
MIL 0.324 103 LAA 0.326
COL 0.301 111 ARI 0.318
OAK 0.302 91 CIN 0.298
LAD 0.341 107 STL 0.338
SDP 0.301 98 SFG 0.321
Giants-Padres play in Mexico City

I’ve started pulling current season data for team offenses to assess matchups rather than continue utilizing the rest-of-season projections. That means there are a bunch of teams who were projected to be good who are currently underperforming and vice versa.

It’s a pretty rough slate of matchups this weekend. It doesn’t help that the Giants and Padres are playing in Mexico City which is at a higher altitude than Denver. The ball should be flying in that short two-game series.

Teams with easier schedules include the A’s, Cubs, Orioles, Twins, Red Sox, Reds, and Royals.

Teams with tougher schedules include the aforementioned Giants and Padres and also the Angels, Astros, Brewers, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Guardians, Mariners, Mets, Nationals, Rockies, White Sox. and Yankees.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starting Pitchers
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB% HR/9
Kyle Muller 49.68% CIN 0.298 5.31 3.4% 1.14
Nick Pivetta 31.73% CLE 0.292 5.16 15.9% 1.83
Dean Kremer 9.30% DET 0.268 6.57 11.3% 2.55
Vince Velasquez 0.96% WSN 0.294 4.12 13.3% 1.03
Caleb Kilian? 0.32% MIA 0.299 4.17 11.1%
Kilian’s stats from FanGraphs Depth Charts projections

Despite all those poor matchups, there are a handful of starter’s I’m comfortable recommending. All three of the A’s starters scheduled to take the mound during their home series against the Reds fall below our 50% owned threshold. I’m recommending Kyle Muller again, but if you want to roll the dice with Ken Waldichuk or possibly even Drew Rucinski 루친스키, you could drip them into your lineups.

Nick Pivetta bounced back after a rough start against the Angels a few weeks ago. Last weekend, he held the Brewers to three runs in 5.2 innings, striking out seven and walking just one. He draws the Guardians at home this weekend and that should be a pretty easy matchup for him since Cleveland’s offense hasn’t really started clicking yet.

Dean Kremer followed up his gem of a start against the Nationals with a decent start against the Red Sox yesterday. He allowed four runs in 5.2 innings, striking out five. He did allow a pair of home runs which has been a huge issue for him. The Tigers simply aren’t hitting for power right now and the Orioles will be playing in cavernous Comerica Park. This is a matchup that should go the way his one against the Nationals did.

After two rough starts to open the season, Vince Velasquez has actually been pitching pretty well for the red-hot Pirates. He shut out the Cardinals and Reds and escaped Coors Field with just three runs allowed. Across his last three starts, he’s earned 6.7 points per inning pitched. He’s scheduled to start against the Nationals on Saturday.

The final recommendation is a little up in the air. The Cubs will need to call up a starter to take Jameson Taillon’s spot in the rotation this weekend but it’s a little unclear who it’ll be. Caleb Kilian or Adrian Sampson 샘슨 make the most sense with the former being listed on the Roster Resource Probables Grid. Whoever it ends up being, they’ll have a nice matchup against the Marlins in Miami.

Recap: April 21–23

Drip Retrospective
Player IP Pts Pts/IP
Tyler Wells 7 51.0 7.29
Kyle Gibson 6.1 42.4 6.69
Zach Plesac 5 15.0 3.00
Hunter Gaddis N/A
Bailey Falter N/A
Total 18.1 108.4 5.91
Season Total 244.1 848.7 3.47

Two clear wins from the two Orioles starters make this a pretty good week. Hunter Gaddis ended up relegated to long relief and then to the minors and Bailey Falter’s start was pushed back to today.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: April 24–27

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

April 24–27
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
PHI 0.340 106 SEA 0.302
CLE 0.296 101 COL 0.311
BAL 0.343 95 BOS 0.330
TBR 0.389 94 HOU 0.318
CIN 0.311 116 TEX 0.328
TOR 0.324 105 CHW 0.311
ATL 0.348 98 MIA 0.304
MIN 0.300 96 NYY 0.322
MIL 0.329 103 DET 0.277
LAA 0.316 107 OAK 0.292
ARI 0.318 94 KCR 0.264
SFG 0.328 90 STL 0.349
PIT 0.340 95 LAD 0.347
NYM 0.330 97 WSN 0.294
CHC 0.347 98 SDP 0.308

I’ve started pulling current season data for team offenses to assess matchups rather than continue utilizing the rest-of-season projections. That means there are a bunch of teams who were projected to be good who are currently underperforming and vice versa.

Teams with easier schedules include the Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Mets, Royals, and Yankees.

Teams with tougher schedules include the A’s, Mariners, Marlins, Rangers, Reds, Tigers, and White Sox.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starting Pitchers
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB% HR/9
Brad Keller 49.36% ARI 0.318 4.37 5.7% 0.43
Jhony Brito 40.06% MIN 0.300 4.12 6.3% 0.60
Kyle Gibson 33.01% DET 0.277 4.76 7.4% 1.14
José Suarez 29.49% OAK 0.292 6.15 0.0% 1.54
Zach Plesac 13.46% COL 0.311 4.55 10.0% 1.38
Griffin Canning 8.33% OAK 0.292 4.19 12.2% 0.87
Colin Rea 0.32% DET 0.277 4.16 11.9% 0.84

Brad Keller sits just below our 50% ownership cutoff and he’s been a common recommendation in these columns this year. He’s continued to struggle with his command early this season but he’s also only given up a single home run and just 14 hits in 21 innings. He gets a nice matchup against the Diamondbacks in their dinger suppressing ballpark next week.

Another common recommendation, Kyle Gibson lines up to face the Tigers two starts in a row, once this weekend and again on Thursday. His last start against the White Sox didn’t go super well — four runs on seven hits and two walks with just a single strikeout in 5.1 innings — but the other three starts he’s made this season have been solid. His two-step against Detroit is just too good to pass up.

Colin Rea is also lined up to face the Tigers next week. He’s been a serviceable starter for the Brewers after Brandon Woodruff went down with his shoulder injury. He had a pretty good season in Japan last year and has looked decent in his return to the States. He held the Padres to a single run across 5.2 innings in his first start but was knocked around by the Mariners in his second.

José Suarez and Griffin Canning are scheduled to face the A’s at home next week. That’s a pretty juicy matchup, but beware the high home run park factor of Angel Stadium. Suarez hasn’t been good this year, with a walk rate that matches his strikeout rate. A date against Oakland seems like a good candidate for a get-right start. Canning is a bit more interesting. Injuries derailed a very promising start to his career over the last few years. He’s healthy and has made a couple of solid starts so far this year.

Jhony Brito bounced back from his ugly start against the Twins by holding the Angels to just a single run across 4.1 innings on Wednesday. He’s scheduled to face Minnesota again next week and will be looking to improve on his seven-run disaster the last time he faced them.

Recap: April 17–20

Drip Retrospective
Player IP Pts Pts/IP
Ken Waldichuk 5 25.0 5.00
Michael Wacha 4 6.6 1.65
Brad Keller 4 10.8 2.70
Dean Kremer 6.2 47.9 7.19
Matt Strahm 5.1 35.4 6.63
Hunter Gaddis 5 15.2 3.04
Peyton Battenfield 6 25.3 4.22
Total 36 166.2 4.62
Season Total 226 740.4 3.28

A really good week with four clear wins and no obvious losses. Keller’s start against the Rangers was dragged down by the five walks he allowed and Michael Wacha just hasn’t been able to replicate the magic he showed in his second start of the season against the Braves.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: April 21–23

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

April 21–23
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
SEA 0.307 99 STL 0.337
CHC 0.337 98 LAD 0.347
PIT 0.319 95 CIN 0.326
TBR 0.385 94 CHW 0.322
BAL 0.354 95 DET 0.269
PHI 0.354 106 COL 0.308
NYY 0.324 102 TOR 0.335
CLE 0.305 101 MIA 0.306
ATL 0.356 98 HOU 0.319
TEX 0.315 101 OAK 0.305
MIN 0.294 96 WSN 0.306
MIL 0.339 103 BOS 0.328
LAA 0.325 107 KCR 0.273
ARI 0.307 94 SDP 0.318
SFG 0.339 90 NYM 0.323

I’ve started pulling current season data for team offenses to assess matchups rather than continue utilizing the rest-of-season projections. That means there are a bunch of teams who were projected to be good who are currently underperforming and vice versa.

Teams with an easier weekend schedule include the Marlins, Nationals, Orioles, Padres, Phillies Rangers, Reds, and Twins. The Diamondbacks and Giants are both playing at home in their cavernous ballparks but they’re facing the Padres and Mets, respectively. On paper, it’s a decent matchup for Arizona and San Francisco because their opponents are underperforming a bit, but be weary.

Teams with tougher schedules include the Astros, Blue Jays, Brewers, Cubs, Mariners, Red Sox, Rockies, Royals, Tigers, White Sox, and Yankees.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starting Pitchers
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB% HR/9
Tyler Wells 14.42% DET 0.269 4.55 16.4% 1.65
Kyle Gibson 31.09% DET 0.269 4.76 7.4% 1.14
Zach Plesac 13.78% MIA 0.306 4.56 10.0% 1.38
Hunter Gaddis 6.73% MIA 0.306 4.27 10.2% 0.71
Bailey Falter 11.22% COL 0.308 4.06 12.9% 1.20

I’ve only got a handful of recommendations this weekend. The Orioles are hosting the Tigers who currently have the worst offense in baseball by a wide margin. That means it’s a great opportunity to drip Tyler Wells and Kyle Gibson into your rosters. The former has had a decent start to the year, allowing just a single walk in three starts with an acceptable amount of strikeouts and hits allowed. Gibson has been a successful recommendation twice already this season and this matchup is his best yet.

The Guardians will host the hapless Marlins offense this weekend, giving you another opportunity to drip Zach Plesac and Hunter Gaddis into your rosters. Plesac has been fine after his implosion in his first start of the year against the A’s. The strikeouts aren’t there but he isn’t walking anyone either. Gaddis has only allowed a single home run this season, relying on weak contact in the air to get many of his outs. His xFIP is an unsightly 5.74, however, so start him at your own risk.

The Rockies will travel to Philadelphia this weekend and Bailey Falter might be lined up for a start on Saturday or Sunday. The Phillies have a double-header today and don’t have an off day this week so their rotation might need to be reconfigured over the weekend. Keep an eye on whether or not Falter is listed as a probable for that series against Colorado.

Recap: April 14–16

Drip Retrospective
Player IP Pts Pts/IP
Dylan Dodd N/A
Seth Lugo 3.2 10.3 2.82
Nick Martinez 6 1.8 0.30
Matthew Boyd N/A
Anthony DeSclafani 6.2 31.4 4.72
Jhony Brito 0.2 -26.0 -38.95
Bryce Elder 5.1 20.7 3.87
Zach Plesac 5 20.8 4.16
Michael Grove 5.2 30.4 5.37
Jake Woodford 5.1 21.3 3.99
Total 38.1 110.8 2.89
Season Total 190 574.2 3.02

A couple of recommendations ended up missing starts last weekend — Dylan Dodd was sent back to Triple-A when Kyle Wright was activated from the IL and Matthew Boyd had his start delayed by rain two days in a row. I think we can call Anthony DeSclafani and Michael Grove’s starts wins with Jhony Brito and Nick Martinez’s clear losses. Seth Lugo also struggled through his start, but ended up earning enough points to call it a wash.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: April 17–20

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

April 17–20
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
SEA 0.318 99 MIL 0.322
BOS 0.331 100 MIN 0.317
DET 0.307 93 CLE 0.322
CIN 0.317 116 TBR 0.320
MIA 0.317 93 SFG 0.321
CHW 0.321 108 PHI 0.324
KCR 0.317 93 TEX 0.320
STL 0.329 94 ARI 0.321
HOU 0.335 102 TOR 0.335
COL 0.310 111 PIT 0.317
OAK 0.299 91 CHC 0.318
SDP 0.334 98 ATL 0.338
LAD 0.333 107 NYM 0.327
WSN 0.311 104 BAL 0.321
NYY 0.327 102 LAA 0.334
Team wOBA projected via FG Depth Charts

Its feast or famine this week. Easy schedules include the A’s, Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, Guardians, Marlins, Rangers, Royals, and Tigers.

A bunch of squads have a tough matchup to start the week including the Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mets, Padres, Pirates, Phillies, Reds, Twins, White Sox, and Yankees.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starting Pitchers
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB%
Ken Waldichuk 47.76% CHC 0.318 4.24 14.2%
Michael Wacha 46.80% ARI 0.321 4.44 13.4%
Brad Keller 13.46% TEX 0.320 4.32 8.8%
Dean Kremer 11.86% WSN 0.311 4.28 11.5%
Matt Strahm 9.94% COL 0.330 3.92 18.3%
Hunter Gaddis 8.65% DET 0.307 4.68 14.1%
Peyton Battenfield 0.00% DET 0.307 4.55 11.0%
Stats projected via FG Depth Charts

There aren’t a ton of great matchups to recommend this week with a bunch of riskier plays if you’re desperate for innings or need to hit your games started cap. Michael Wacha has been a little overlooked in these columns in favor of his rotation-mates Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo, but Wacha’s actually been pretty decent in his two starts this year. Impressively, he held the Braves scoreless over six innings in his last outing with ten strikeouts. He’s lined up to start against the Diamondbacks in Arizona on Thursday.

Brad Keller continues to impress with his revamped breaking balls; Stuff+ loves both his slider (137 Stuff+) and curveball (114 Stuff+). The only knock against him has been his lack of control of those two pitches early on. Everyone has scrambled to pick up his teammate Kris Bubic, but Keller deserves some attention too. He just held the Rangers to a single run in 6.2 innings while striking out seven on Wednesday and he’ll get to face them again at home on Tuesday.

Matt Strahm has yet to allow a run in three appearances and two starts this year and as long as he’s getting a chance to contribute in the rotation, he’s worth considering dripping into your rotation. I didn’t recommend him for his start against the Reds in the bandbox in Cincinnati but he gets a really nice matchup against the Rockies at home on Thursday.

Ken Waldichuk has had a really rough start to the season, allowing 17 runs in 15 innings. To be fair, he ran into the Angels and the Rays for his first two starts and looked a bit better against the Orioles in his last outing. His ownership rate has dropped below 50% in Ottoneu as frustrated players have cut him loose. Still, he was ranked 86th on the 2023 Top Prospects list and looked promising during his cup of coffee last year. If you want to take a chance on him, he has a nice matchup against the Cubs at home on the docket.

There are a couple of Guardians starters worth mentioning for their matchup against the Tigers in Detroit. Hunter Gaddis looked great against the A’s a week ago but got crushed by the Yankees in his last start. Peyton Battenfield made his major league debut this week against those same Bronx Bombers and held them to just two runs in 4.2 innings. He was ranked 40th on Cleveland’s prospect list and fits their archetype of pitchers who have a deep repertoire with a strong breaking ball, but struggle with their fastball. Both would be pretty significant risks, but the matchup and venue are pretty favorable.

Recap: April 10–13

Drip Retrospective
Player IP Pts Pts/IP
José Suarez 4 4.6 1.15
Kyle Gibson 6.1 32.9 5.19
Dean Kremer 4.1 -12.5 -2.89
Bryce Elder 6.1 42.3 6.67
Chris Flexen 플렉센 2.1 -37.3 -16.00
JP Sears 5 6.6 1.32
Matt Strahm 5 35.6 7.12
Wade Miley 5 8.7 1.74
Total 38.1 80.8 2.11
Season Total 151.2 463.4 3.06

Three wins and two losses last week and a bunch of meh. Strahm continues to be a solid recommendation and Bryce Elder impressed again. The Chris Flexen recommendation was an ugly affair but he had been such a consistent, if unexciting, starter last year I thought it would work out against the Cubs. It didn’t. Despite struggling against the A’s in his start on Wednesday, I’m recommending another Kremer start as you can see above. Maybe he’ll be able to handle the Nationals this time around.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: April 14–16

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

April 14–16
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
SEA 0.318 99 COL 0.310
DET 0.307 93 SFG 0.321
CIN 0.317 116 PHI 0.324
MIA 0.317 93 ARI 0.321
WSN 0.311 104 CLE 0.322
NYY 0.327 102 MIN 0.317
TOR 0.335 105 TBR 0.320
BOS 0.331 100 LAA 0.334
CHW 0.321 108 BAL 0.321
HOU 0.335 102 TEX 0.320
KCR 0.317 93 ATL 0.338
STL 0.329 94 PIT 0.317
OAK 0.299 91 NYM 0.327
SDP 0.334 98 MIL 0.322
LAD 0.333 107 CHC 0.318
Team wOBA projected via FG Depth Charts

A bunch of teams have easier schedules this weekend including the Braves, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Giants, Mariners, Marlins, Mets, and Tigers.

Difficult schedules include the Angles, Brewers, Cubs, Nationals, Orioles, Rangers, Rays, Red Sox, Reds, Twins, and White Sox.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starting Pitchers
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB%
Dylan Dodd 48.72% KCR 0.317 4.56 11.0%
Seth Lugo 47.12% MIL 0.322 3.89 15.6%
Nick Martinez 45.51% MIL 0.322 4.08 12.6%
Matthew Boyd 44.87% SFG 0.321 4.14 15.1%
Anthony DeSclafani 40.71% DET 0.307 3.95 14.1%
Jhony Brito 34.30% MIN 0.317 4.29 11.1%
Bryce Elder 23.40% KCR 0.317 4.08 11.8%
Zach Plesac 13.46% WSN 0.311 4.57 11.5%
Michael Grove 8.65% CHC 0.318 4.53 12.8%
Jake Woodford 0.64% PIT 0.317 4.63 7.7%
Stats projected via FG Depth Charts

Despite all the teams with bad matchups, there’s a full slate of recommendations this weekend. The two young starters from the Braves, Dylan Dodd and Bryce Elder, are scheduled to make starts in Kansas City against the Royals. The former had a rough outing against the Padres in his last start, allowing seven runs in 4.1 innings. The Royals should prove to be a much easier opponent. Elder just held the Reds scoreless over 6.1 innings in his start on Monday and hasn’t allowed a run in either of his starts this year.

The two Padres pitchers are creeping up in ownership since the start of the season and both are light recommendations against the Brewers. It’s not an obvious matchup to exploit since Milwaukee has actually been hitting pretty well to start the season, but it’s at home and both Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo have proven they can be counted on this season. The latter has been particularly impressive in his return to the rotation with another strong start coming against the Braves on Sunday.

Anthony DeSclafani turned in another solid start in his last turn through the rotation and he gets a really easy matchup against the Tigers in their huge ballpark. On the other side of that matchup, Matthew Boyd could be a bit more of a risky pick. He handled the Astros and Red Sox okay, allowing two runs in each of those starts, but he hasn’t been able to pitch out of the fifth inning yet. He’s allowed as many walks as he has strikeouts so the efficiency is still lacking.

Jhony Brito is lined up to make his third start of his career after capably handling the Orioles last weekend. He gets a tougher opponent in the Twins so this will be a pretty tough test for him. I’m recommending him anyway. Michael Grove did not fare well in his second start after impressing in his season debut; he allowed nine runs to the Diamondbacks on Sunday. He’ll get the Cubs at home in his next start and that’s a bit of a risk given the high home run park factor of Dodger Stadium. I’d understand if you wanted to wait and see how he performs this weekend before picking him up.

Recap: April 7–9

Drip Retrospective
Pitcher IP PTS P/IP
Mike Clevinger 5.1 14.7 2.75
Nick Pivetta N/A
Anthony DeSclafani 6.1 53.1 8.38
Bailey Falter 5 18.3 3.66
Brad Keller 5.2 31.1 5.49
Total 22.1 117.2 5.25
Season Total 113.1 382.7 3.38

A much better weekend after those terrible results during the first week in April. I count two clear wins and no losses. The surprise was Brad Keller’s performance against the Giants. The strikeouts weren’t there, but he held San Francisco to just three hits in 5.2 innings of work. That’ll play. Nick Pivetta’s start got pushed back to Monday, but he performed well against the Rays, shutting them out over five innings with six strikeouts and just two walks.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: April 10–13

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

April 10–13
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
BAL 0.321 95 OAK 0.299
TBR 0.320 94 BOS 0.331
CLE 0.322 101 NYY 0.327
TOR 0.335 105 DET 0.307
MIN 0.317 96 CHW 0.321
TEX 0.320 101 KCR 0.317
PIT 0.317 95 HOU 0.335
LAA 0.334 107 WSN 0.311
CHC 0.318 98 SEA 0.318
ATL 0.338 98 CIN 0.317
PHI 0.324 106 MIA 0.317
NYM 0.327 97 SDP 0.334
ARI 0.321 94 MIL 0.322
COL 0.330 111 STL 0.329
SFG 0.321 90 LAD 0.333
Team wOBA projected via FG Depth Charts

Obvious favorable schedules include the Astros, Braves, Brewers, Dodgers, Rangers, and Orioles. There are also a handful of teams who are either playing tough opponents in pitcher friendly ballparks or against weaker teams in smaller venues; the A’s, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Mariners, Red Sox, and White Sox fall into this camp.

Bad matchups include the Cardinals, Guardians, Marlins, Mets, Nationals, Pirates, Reds, Rockies, and Tigers.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starting Pitchers
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB%
José Suarez 41.99% WSN 0.311 4.31 13.2%
Kyle Gibson 23.40% OAK 0.299 4.23 11.9%
Dean Kremer 16.99% OAK 0.299 4.15 11.9%
Bryce Elder 14.74% CIN 0.317 4.00 12.3%
Chris Flexen 플렉센 12.50% CHC 0.318 4.51 10.0%
JP Sears 8.01% BAL 0.321 3.92 14.8%
Matt Strahm 4.49% MIA 0.317 3.96 18.5%
Wade Miley 4.17% ARI 0.322 4.38 8.4%
Stats projected via FG Depth Charts

The series between the Orioles and A’s features three different recommendations. Kyle Gibson has thrown two decent starts so far this year with an 8:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12 innings. He introduced a sweeper late last year and it’s been featured pretty heavily in his pitch mix so far this season. Dean Kremer is a bit more of a risk, even with the weak opponent. He’s had spurts of success, particularly last year, and his first two opponents this season were pretty tough — the Red Sox and Yankees — but he’s also introduced a sweeper into his repertoire.

For Oakland, JP Sears is a repeat recommendation and Kyle Muller would have been but his ownership rate crossed over the 50% threshold this week. Sears struggled a bit in his first start against the Guardians, throwing 4.2 innings with eight hits allowed, one walk, and five strikeouts. Adam Oller is also lined up to start during this series and you’d have to take a pretty big leap of faith to consider starting him.

José Suarez and Matt Strahm fall into that camp of matchups in a dangerous ballpark against a weak team. The former ran into some trouble against the Mariners in his first start of the season but the Nationals pose a much weaker threat. Strahm threw four scoreless innings against the Yankees during his spot start on Tuesday. The lack of bulk is a concern as is the hard contact that went unrewarded in New York.

Bryce Elder was phenomenal in his spot start for the Braves on Wednesday, holding the Cardinals scoreless over six innings with six strikeouts. Atlanta’s rotation is a bit of a mess with two starters on the IL and Elder, Jared Shuster, and Dylan Dodd battling over who will get to stick in the big leagues once everyone gets healthy. Dodd and Elder certainly look more viable as major league starters and the latter has the benefit of a nice matchup early next week.

Recap: April 3–6

Drip Retrospective
Pitcher IP PTS P/IP
Kyle Muller 5.2 29.5 5.21
José Suarez 4.1 -5.3 -1.23
Nick Pivetta 5 7.6 1.52
Yusei Kikuchi 5 17.9 3.58
Zach Plesac 1 -24.1 -24.10
JP Sears 4.2 8.4 1.81
Kutter Crawford 4 -22.1 -5.53
James Kaprielian 5 10.5 2.10
Michael Grove 4 26.4 6.60
Josh Fleming 3 -2.8 -0.93
Total 41.2 46.0 1.10
Season Total 91 265.5 2.92

After a good start during the first weekend of the season, my recommendations last week were pretty brutal. I count two wins — Muller and Grove — with seven ugly losses including a ghastly -24.1 points from Plesac against the A’s and -22.1 points from Crawford against the Pirates. Ouch. I’m not not sure there are any solid lessons to be taken away from this group of really bad performances. I liked the matchups on paper, but sometimes pitchers throw stinkers against weak teams and you just have to roll with the punches.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: April 7–9

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Let’s get into it.

Upcoming Schedule:

April 7–9
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
CLE 0.322 101 SEA 0.318
CHC 0.318 98 TEX 0.320
PIT 0.317 95 CHW 0.321
SFG 0.321 90 KCR 0.317
TBR 0.320 94 OAK 0.299
ATL 0.338 98 SDP 0.334
MIL 0.322 103 STL 0.329
COL 0.330 111 WSN 0.311
LAA 0.334 107 TOR 0.335
ARI 0.321 94 LAD 0.333
DET 0.307 93 BOS 0.331
NYM 0.327 97 MIA 0.317
PHI 0.324 106 CIN 0.317
BAL 0.321 95 NYY 0.327
MIN 0.317 96 HOU 0.335
Team wOBA projected via FG Depth Charts

Favorable schedules include the Astros, Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Rays, Red Sox, Royals, and White Sox. You may be able to get away with playing starters from the A’s, Pirates, and Yankees since they’re playing tougher opponents in safer environments.

Lots more teams to avoid this weekend, including the Angels, Blue Jays, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Nationals, Padres, Reds, Rockies, and Twins.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starting Pitchers
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB%
Mike Clevinger 38.46% PIT 0.317 4.59 13.2%
Nick Pivetta 31.09% DET 0.307 4.40 13.3%
Anthony DeSclafani 16.35% KCR 0.317 4.13 13.1%
Bailey Falter 8.97% CIN 0.317 4.22 16.1%
Brad Keller 6.41% SFG 0.321 4.34 8.7%
Stats projected via FG Depth Charts

It’s a pretty light slate of recommendations this weekend with so many teams playing tough matchups or in poor environments. Nick Pivetta shows up for the second week in a row. Monitor his first start of the season against the Pirates today to make sure the increased velocity on his fastball carries over from spring training.

There are two starters who could be nice pickups in that Giants-Royals series, one for each team. Anthony DeSclafani started on Monday and held the White Sox scoreless over six innings while striking out four. He was an effective starter back in 2021 but injuries limited him to just five starts last year. If he’s fully healthy, he could be a sneaky addition with an excellent home ballpark. Brad Keller made his first start of the season on Sunday against the Twins and looked okay. He only lasted 4.2 innings, walked four, and struck out six. He introduced two new breaking balls to his repertoire this spring, though the command issues could be an issue as he figures out how to locate them properly.

Mike Clevinger handled the Astros capably on Sunday, throwing five shutout innings with eight strikeouts. He limited his pitch mix to just his fastball and slider and the latter generated a 44% whiff rate. That breaking ball lost a ton of effectiveness last year and it’s a big reason why he struggled so much in San Diego. He’s got a nice matchup against the Pirates in Pittsburgh to continue building off that early success.

Bailey Falter is a bit more of a risk since Citizen’s Bank Park is a very hitter friendly venue. The Reds offense isn’t good but the combination of opponent and ballpark still isn’t ideal. Falter threw 5.1 innings in his first start of the year, holding the Rangers to two runs on seven hits, striking out three.

Recap: March 30–April 2

Drip Retrospective
Pitcher IP PTS P/IP
Aaron Civale 7 49.6 7.09
Spencer Turnbull 2.1 -9.5 -4.09
Matthew Boyd N/A
Kyle Muller 5 29.6 5.92
Nick Martinez 7 27.9 3.99
Michael Wacha 6 11.5 1.92
Kyle Gibson 5 21.4 4.28
Seth Lugo 7 43.1 6.16
Marco Gonzales 5 5.1 1.02
Jhony Brito 5 40.8 8.16
Totals 49.1 219.5 4.45

As a way to keep myself accountable and just because I’m curious, I’ll be showing the results of my recommendations throughout the season.

Civale, Muller, Lugo, and Brito were pretty clear wins while Turnbull, Wacha, and Gonzales big losses. Looking back, it was probably too early to recommend Turnbull before he had even made a regular season start after his injury. Since these recommendations ran a week ago, Civale has cleared the 50% owned mark which is probably warranted. His stuff is pretty good and he was the recipient of some pretty bad luck last year. It was surprising to see seven strong innings from Lugo in his return to the rotation after spending so much of his career in the bullpen. If he continues to provide that kind of bulk with solid ratios, he needs to be owned in a lot more leagues.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: April 3–6

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: March 30–April 2

Welcome to what I hope will become a regular bi-weekly column this season. Streaming starting pitchers is a popular and effective strategy in fantasy baseball but the benefits are largely lost in a dynasty format like Ottoneu. The 48-hour in-season auctions make streaming in this format an exercise in foresight and planning while the deep rosters make finding starting pitching on the waiver wire tougher than in other, shallower formats. But finding ways to fill your innings pitched or games started cap is a real concern for many teams, especially considering the rate of attrition for pitchers in the modern era. In Ottoneu, you can’t really stream, but you can drip.

Read the rest of this entry »