Archive for Breakouts

Several emerging backstops have given the position a bit of a renaissance right now and it feels the deepest it has been in quite some time. While that does offer more options lean on for quality production, it also means you need more production from the position to compete with your leaguemates. Here are 3 catchers I like to put up quality numbers behind the dish this year:

• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops

Tyler Stephenson | CIN

My Projection: .288/.359/.477, 19 HR, 72 R, 77 RBI, 1 SB in 506 PA

Stephenson was on his way to a breakout in 2022 before injuries derailed him and limited him to just 50 games. I’m right back on the train for 2023! The 26-year-old hasn’t delivered a ton of power yet (.158 ISO), but his 6’4, 225-pound frame says more in on the way, especially in that ballpark. The Reds also plan to utilize his bat more by way of starts at 1B and DH ($) which is always great for catcher-eligible bat. Power is plentiful in the upper rungs of the catcher ranks, pairing it with the batting average is what makes Stephenson special.

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One downside I have noticed in this stat-heavy era of fantasy baseball is that we sometimes struggle to see potential breakouts from guys who don’t have clear indicators in their underlying data. I understand why, but it can lead to glossing over growth candidates who take development strides beyond what their numbers suggested.

Trent Grisham | SDP, OF | 271 ADP – 63rd OF

It was an unquestionably bad season at the dish for Grish. He posted a career-low 83 wRC+ with 17 HR, 7 SB, and a career-high 29% K rate in 524 PA. He played enough strong defense to net a second Gold Glove win and put up a third straight 2-WAR season. He had the desired 100-point AVG/OBP split but that’s less impressive when he hit just .184! He values his walks with an 11% rate this past season and for his career, but perhaps being a bit more aggressive would favor him.

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Let’s continue reviewing my preseason calls and predictions by checking in on six hitters that broke out in 2021. In 2021, these hitters all earned more than $20 in value greater than what they earned in 2020. To qualify as “REAL”, they merely had to earn within $10 of their 2021 earnings. If their 2022 earnings declined by at least $10 from their 2021 marks, they would be deemed a “BUST”. Let’s find out how this group performed.

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Yesterday, I discussed six 2021 fantasy breakouts and concluded with a verdict as to whether I believed each was for real or would be a 2022 bust. Today, let’s discuss the 2021 busts. Will they rebound or continue down the path of bustiness?

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Earlier this week, I examined some of the reserve round picks in the AL LABR auction. Today, I’ve moved to the NL auction. To put it simply, the player talent took a significant step down from the AL options. So many players were rostered who will never make it to the majors this season or are just plain bad. For example, Nomar Mazara, who has yet to sign with a team and never had a productive major league season, was rostered.

Here are all the reserve picks

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Every year, USA Today’s Steve Gardner hosts four LABR drafts and auctions. The LABR draft happened a couple of weeks ago with the three auctions (12 team AL, NL, and mixed) happening this past weekend. I was lucky enough to participate in the 12-team mixed auction (more on it later), but the most useful information is digging into the reserve picks. Sometimes I’ve never even heard of them. I’m going to dive into some of these end-game players from the AL auction and look for any hidden gems.

Here are all the reserve picks

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FYI: I won’t be chatting on Wednesday, February 23rd. There will be a Top 100 Prospects chat in that timeslot!

First things first, what’s the difference between a breakout and sleeper? Breakouts are about a new level of performance while sleepers are about where a player is drafted. I started my Sleeper series (Vol. 1) and identified the 21st round as the beginning of the sleeper pool. That first edition focused on 15-teamers so I started at pick-300 (I’ll have 10- and 12-team iterations coming, too). A breakout can come from the 2nd round if they ascend to a top 3-5 player, but I am looking for breakouts outside of the first 4 rounds so pick-60 in 15-teamers, 48 in 12s (which will be today’s focus), and 40 in 10s.

• Volume 1: 15-team Breakouts

Daulton Varsho | Arizona Diamondbacks, C/OF | 94 ADP

A catcher who runs and doesn’t always have to play behind the dish to get on the field is what fantasy darlings are made of and Varsho certainly has many proponents. A sharp second half (.879 OPS, 10 HR, 5 SB in 219 PA) has his biggest fans buying in completely while also bringing aboard some new fans. The real beauty with Varsho is the fact that he will likely spend most of his time in the outfield which gives him a potentially huge edge in volume over many other star catchers. That hasn’t been reflected in the projections with a high of 112 games, but if Carson Kelly stays healthy and holds the full-time catcher role, then Varsho could log north of 125 games with 100+ coming in the outfield. He has a great shot to deliver double-digit stolen bases, too, something that has been done just four times by a catcher since 2010 (J.T. Realmuto 2x in ’16 and ’21, Yadier Molina in ’12, and Jason Kendall in ’10).

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First things first, what’s the difference between a breakout and sleeper? Breakouts are about a new level of performance while sleepers are about where a player is drafted. I started my Sleeper series last week (Vol. 1) and identified the 21st round as the beginning of the sleeper pool. That first edition focused on 15-teamers so I started at pick-300 (I’ll have 10- and 12-team iterations coming, too). A breakout can come from the 2nd round if they ascend to a top 5 player next year, but I am looking for breakouts outside of the first 4 rounds so pick-60 in 15-teamers (which will be today’s focus), 48 in 12s, and 40 in 10s.

Max Fried | Atlanta Braves, SP | 71 ADP

If Fried hadn’t gotten hurt last year, he would’ve set a new high in innings and if his ratios had held (3.04 ERA/1.09 WHIP), it would’ve been the breakout. Instead, he matched his 2019 IP total (165.7) so I can still finagle him into a breakout situation with the idea being he pushes 185+ IP of equal or better ratios and perhaps even more strikeouts. We are only going into Fried’s third full season so there is still development happening here.

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