Archive for Bold Predictions

Beat the Shift Podcast – 2023 Bold Predictions Episode w/ Michael Govier

The 2023 Bold Predictions episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Michael Govier

NFBC & Tout Wars experience

Strategy Section

  • First few weeks strategy
    • How to use FAAB in the first few weeks of the season
    • How to know who to drop/cut a player from your roster?
  • What to do with demoted or injured players?

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Chad Young’s Ten Bold Ottoneu Prediction for 2023

It’s an annual tradition to sit down to write this and feel like every prediction is either too bold or not bold enough, at which point I adjust them all and then they flip – the “too bolds” becoming too tepid and vice versa. This year I am just sticking to my initial predictions and living with the consequences. So enjoy my ten bold predictions – and feel free to share more in the comments!

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Alex Chamberlain’s Five Bold Predictions for 2023

When I first started writing eight years ago, it felt necessary to provide a garrulous prologue about bold predictions, their meanings, the ethos behind the endeavor, et cetera, et cetera. Years went on, and that prologue grew leaner and leaner until we reached last year’s respectfully concise quip:

No prologue, just bold predictions. Bold, but not stupidly bold, and actionable in a way that can tangibly affect your fantasy season (for better or worse). Let’s go.

That still applies here, but I do want to say something: I am disappointed that I don’t have this year’s ________. Last year, it was Steven Kwan; the year before, Josh Rojas; before him, Jake Cronenworth; Jeff McNeil; José Ramírez; the hits keep on coming. No one stands out to me that way this year. That makes me sad. Disappointed, too, especially in myself. It’s not for lack of talent. It’s for lack of my time. I wish I had more time to immerse myself in the depths of the minor leagues.

I could probably rattle off a name or two that have a similar chance as those aforementioned. But it wouldn’t carry the same conviction. And conviction is the name of the game. So, sadly, there is no This Year’s Steven Kwan for 2023. I expect to remedy this issue next year. Please forgive me in the meantime.

OK, housekeeping’s complete. Let’s get into it, for realsies. (Note: the order here does not indicate preference or confidence. I randomized it!) Read the rest of this entry »


Curiosity Shop: The Birchwood Brothers’ 10 Bold Predictions

We’ve been stat geeks virtually since the moment of our respective conceptions, and we were thrilled by both the stat revolution ushered in by Bill James and the analytics revolution ushered in by we’re not sure who. (We view “statistics” and “analytics” as two separate but related disciplines, and someday we’ll get around to explaining why, but not today.) But we feel as if we’ve come about a quarter-circle away from our initial position and now, in designing our baseball drafts, have moved significantly in the direction of what you might call the anecdotal.

Don’t get us wrong. We haven’t regressed to the time when a player’s announcing he was coming to spring training in the best shape of his life mattered to anyone but  his agent, or when “pitching coach” was a synonym for “manager’s drinking buddy” rather than “kinesiologist.” We’re perfectly comfortable with au courant things like Heat Maps and Tunnels, even if they do sound more like driving directions than baseball statistics. We admire enormously, and often learn from, the folks who write deep-dive two-thousand-word articles exploring, for example, every possible aspect of Michael Wacha’s pitch tunneling. But in identifying the players we think might outperform the Fantasy market’s expectations, we frequently rely on some isolated and intriguing piece of information or cluster of information, sometimes narrative, sometimes statistical, sometimes a hybrid. In other words, oddities. Anomalies. Curiosities.
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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1146 – Podapallooza Day 2, Hour 1 ft. Joe Pisapia

2/26/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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Reviewing Best Buys and Hot Takes: AL Central

Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

Last year, I did a Roster Review series throughout the fall/winter looking back at the 2021 season for all 30 teams while also including a Best Buy and Hot Take for 2022 (as well as an On the Rise and Off the Radar players, but I’ll probably review those in a separate piece down the line).

Let’s see how it all turned out!

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS

BEST BUY: José Ramírez

I took the layup and didn’t miss as J-Ram earned his 1st round draft price, finishing as the 5th hitter according to the Auction Calculator. I expect more of the same from Ramirez in 2023. You can make a case that Andrés Giménez was really the best buy as a late-round pick who wound up as the 35th hitter.

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Alex Chamberlain’s Five Bold Predictions for 2022: A Review

Here’s the original post. No dilly-dallying, let’s dive in.

1) Steven Kwan is a top-30 outfielder.

Kwan walk more than he stuck out, and while he only hit six home runs, he stole 19 bases and slashed .298/.373/.400 (124 wRC+). Only five qualified hitters had a better strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB), and only Luis Arraez had a lower swinging strike rate (SwStr%). Ultimately, Kwan finished the season 19th among outfielders on Razzball’s Player Rater. The haters will point to volume (he accumulated 622 plate appearances) but Kwan finished 20th among qualified outfielders on a per-game basis—that is, ignoring volume.

You may remember Kwan started the season scorching hot, then predictably fell back to earth, which entailed a somewhat grueling slump. Da Haters pointed to this slump as an indication of Kwan’s lack of viability as a Major Leaguer rather than simple gravity. The slump actually cost Kwan some starting time—he could’ve notched 700 PA if the Guardians didn’t lose faith in him in May, like everyone else did—but he rebounded by showcasing his tools. More excitingly, his counting stats increased as the season wore on, and he compiled three home runs, seven steals, and a .309 average in September alone.

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Reviewing Best Buys and Hot Takes: AL East

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Last year, I did a Roster Review series throughout the fall/winter looking back at the 2021 season for all 30 teams while also including a Best Buy and Hot Take for 2022 (as well as an On the Rise and Off the Radar players, but I’ll probably review those in a separate piece down the line).

Let’s see how it all turned out!

NEW YORK YANKEES

BEST BUY: Giancarlo Stanton

It’s Judge… obviously. Stanton gave you 31 HRs in just 452 PA, but with a .211 AVG.

HOT TAKE: Gleyber Torres has a 30 HR season.

By letter of the law, it’s a miss as he hit just 24, buuutttt he more than doubled his 2021 output of 9 and didn’t give back all the SBs, either, netting his first double-double (24 HR/10 SB) so if the Hot Take moved Torres up on your board, you are happy with the results. I know there have been a billion jokes about his age, particularly when he smashed 38 HRs at age-22, but it’s worth remembering that he’s entering his age-26 season next year. While he might never hit that many again, he has upside at a fair price.

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2022 Bold Pitcher League Leaders — A Review

Yesterday, I reviewed my bold hitter league leaders and actually got one right! Now let’s flip over to the pitching bold league leaders. Do I get another right or will my horrible injury luck get the best of me this time?

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2022 Bold Hitter League Leaders — A Review

Each year, in addition to my bold predictions, I also predict the league leaders in each of the five traditional fantasy categories, in each league, and for both hitters and pitchers. Let’s begin by reviewing my bold hitter league leaders.

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