Each year, in addition to my bold predictions, I also predict the league leaders in each of the five traditional fantasy categories, in each league, and for both hitters and pitchers. Let’s begin by reviewing my bold hitter league leaders.
With the 2022 regular season officially in the books, it’s time to review alllllll the predictions, calls, and dreams I shared heading into the season. Let’s start with the bold predictions. I have not even looked at them since publishing, so I honestly cannot remember the players involved, let alone any of the specific predictions. I’m eager to find out not only how I did, but what my predictions were in the first place!
Writing my ten bold predictions is one of my favorite things to do each season. Be bold! Be wild! Stake a claim and go out on a limb!
But then, October rolls around, and you have to reap what you sow. Today, I reap.
The Predictions Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Guest: Scott Pianowski
Strategy Section
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It’s Bold Prediction time. Here are mine!
My love for the 23-year-old Rule 5 pick is well known, and I really think he could be this year’s Cedric Mullins in terms of a breakout 30-30 player, though he certainly didn’t come as cheaply as Mullins did a year ago. Baddoo started out hot last year (1.070 OPS after 2 weeks) but with a 44% K and 3% BB rate in April, it felt like a mirage. His improvements were evident over the remainder of the season with a 24% K and 11% BB rate from May 1st on. Upping his competence against lefties will be required (.523 OPS last year) for this to come through, though the AL Central features just three projected lefty starters so he might see a smaller starter/reliever split for his lefty plate appearances (78% v. SPs last year). Lefty SP count in the ALC matters because so many games come against the other four teams in your division.
Ahh, an April tradition like no other. With real baseball just scant hours away, it’s time to fulfill the obligation that every good tout must provide for our loyal constituency.
Let’s get weird.
I am grateful to say that Opening day is finally here! Starting this afternoon, Major League Baseball games will officially count in the standings. Though the season will start a week later than expected, and despite a shorter spring training with an intense “hot stove” period – baseball normalcy is on the horizon.
The 2022 draft season was unique; it was bifurcated with a clear demarcation point in time. There was the period during the lockout, and the period post-lockout. Unfortunately, many of our fantasy baseball drafts and auctions this year were still shifted to virtual events. But all may be forgotten quickly after a full slate of fifteen games appear on the docket this coming weekend.
As our tradition over here at RotoGraphs, it is now time to share our bold predictions with you. This year will be my 5th straight year of sharing with you a few unlikely events – that I believe have the chance to come true.
As usual, the ATC Projections have helped shape much of what is to come in this article. A few predictions come from my own personal analysis on the player, or of a team situation. Other nuggets arise from blind optimism or the crossing of my fingers. These are all possibilities that could happen, that I feel will happen if things break just right.
These are bold predictions, not crazy predictions. I am not going to predict the impossible. Myles Straw will not lead the majors in homers. Miguel Sano will not contend for a batting title. Greg Holland will not win 20 games. Those would not be bold predictions – those would be impossible ones.
My definition of a bold prediction is one that is some 10-30% likely. That is to say, they should roughly lie in the 70th to 90th range of percentile possible outcomes. If done right, one should expect to hit on at least one tenth but not more than one third of all bold predictions in the long-term. Any more outlandish a prediction would be miraculous, while any more probable would be too easy a guess.
Some bold predictions may be more likely than others, but all should go against the majority opinion. The point here is to call attention to a few undervalued (or overvalued) bets by the market. The aim is to focus on (or away from) a particular player or situation. Of course, the goal is also to have some fun!
It’s almost baseball season, which means we are in the heat of bold predictions season, and I can’t pass on a chance to throw out some hot takes. Here are my ten bold (slightly Ottoneu-focused) predictions for the 2022 season.
It’s bold predictions time! Earlier this week, I shared my bold hitter league leaders and bold pitcher league leaders. While those picks and writeups should provide value, they are more for fun given the loooooong odds of getting even one of them right. On the other hand, I expect to hit on several of my bold predictions, aiming for at least two to three correct calls. Let’s dive right in.
Yesterday, I unveiled my bold hitter league leaders. Today, let’s jump over to the pitching side, where I’ll do the same for the throwers. Once again, I’ll use my Pod Projections to guide me toward players I’m more bullish on than the other projection systems. Unlike for hitters, I’ll only be sharing bold leaders in four categories. There will be no bold wins league leader named, because wins are silly and unpredictable.