Reviewing Best Buys and Hot Takes: AL Central

Last year, I did a Roster Review series throughout the fall/winter looking back at the 2021 season for all 30 teams while also including a Best Buy and Hot Take for 2022 (as well as an On the Rise and Off the Radar players, but I’ll probably review those in a separate piece down the line).

Let’s see how it all turned out!

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS

BEST BUY: José Ramírez

I took the layup and didn’t miss as J-Ram earned his 1st round draft price, finishing as the 5th hitter according to the Auction Calculator. I expect more of the same from Ramirez in 2023. You can make a case that Andrés Giménez was really the best buy as a late-round pick who wound up as the 35th hitter.

HOT TAKE: Amed Rosario has a 20 HR/30 SB season.

I chose Rosario over Giménez last year and while neither reached the 20/30 mark, Giménez was a bit better, edging Rosario by 4 spots on the Auction Calculator (35th to 39th) while being over 100 picks cheaper. Giménez is now more expensive, going 38 picks higher in early NFBC drafts (93rd v. 121st) after his substantial power jump in 2022.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

BEST BUY: Yasmani Grandal

Oof, this one of the biggest flat-out busts of the season! Even giving him some leeway for injury, Grandal’s 2022 was an unmitigated disaster. He posted just a 68 wRC+ in the 99 games he played thanks to a colossal power outage that resulted in a career-low .067 ISO! It’s not out of bounds to suggest his injuries were impacting him while on the field as nothing went his way across the 376 PA. His plate skills were still strong (0.57 BB/K, career 0.62) but trouble struck once the ball was in play: a 13-pt. drop in HardHit rate to 40%, an 8-pt. drop in Barrel Rate to 5% and his lowest Pull rate since 2015 (38%, 42% in 2019-21).

Early prices have me ready to rebuy on the 34-year-old backstop barring news of injury carryover concerns. He did end his season upright which is encouraging despite the paltry .614 OPS in the second half and he’s under contract with the White Sox for another year. With Jose Abreu a free agent, I wonder if the Sox might consider Grandal more of a 1B/DH/C option as opposed to the reverse order. Maybe talk with the Blue Jays about securing a #1 C while Grandal mans 1B/DH with Gavin Sheets or Jake Burger depending on the pitcher and then spells whoever is the new catcher 1-2x a week. Mind you, I don’t need this setup to be interested in rostering him, but as the health concerns pile up in his mid-30s, it could be the path to getting his bat back on track and logging his first 100+ game season since 2019 (which is only 2 years without as no one could reach that total in 2020).

HOT TAKE: Garrett Crochet spend the 2nd half as a top 50 SP.

Crochet’s season was over before it started when he tore his UCL in Spring Training, resulting in Tommy John surgery. Now he looks to return for the 2nd of 2023. I’m not ready to predict him to be a Top 50 starter in that time or a starter at all for that matter. This will be his age-24 season so it’s possible for him to eventually be a major league starter, but I’d eye 2024 as the next best chance for that.

MINNESOTA TWINS

BEST BUY: Josh Donaldson

Well, he didn’t even play for this team so tough to get that one right! I wrote the Twins rundown on October 28th and Donaldson was traded to the Yankees on March 13th. That said, nothing about his season was a Best Buy, neither for New York nor had he stayed in Minnesota. Father Time seems to have pulled into Donaldson’s driveway as his production fell apart. His 97 wRC+ was his lowest mark since 2012, 44 points lower than his average from 2013-21. He has been a complete afterthought in early drafts, sitting 416th in ADP, a price that simply can’t hurt you even if he is worse than 2022. If you have any confidence in even a modest rebound, he will be an easy rebuy.

HOT TAKE: Nick Gordon has a 20-20 season out of nowhere.

Gordon didn’t come close to 20/20 even if you extrapolate his 443 PA into a full season of work, but he wasn’t a bad 2nd half fill-in. He hit .280/.326/.454 with 5 HR and 3 SB in 231 PA, qualifying at OF, 2B, SS (he will only take OF/2B with him into 2023 after just 17 games at SS). We will see if the Twins carve out a full-time role for him in 2023. Carlos Correa opting out to test free agency creates an opening, but I’m not sure they want Gordon or Jorge Polanco as the everyday SS.

DETROIT TIGERS

BEST BUY: Jonathan Schoop

Nope. No. Bad. Very bad.

HOT TAKE: Matt Manning rebounds with a 3.80 ERA/1.20 WHIP and 170 strikeouts in 150 IP.

This obviously didn’t happen, due in large part to Manning pitching just 63 IP, but he did beat both ratio targets with a 3.43 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Unfortunately, we didn’t see much growth in his K%. He jumped three points to 18% with a modest 9% SwStr rate. Worst of all his season ended with a forearm strain that casts a shadow on doubt on his 2023, too. At least there isn’t a major cost associated with taking the shot on him staying healthy and taking another step forward. In the 11 drafts so far at the NFBC, he has an ADP of 489th.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS

BEST BUY: Whit Merrifield

I wrote up Merrifield in my 2022 Biggest Busts so clearly he wasn’t a winner here.

HOT TAKE: Adalberto Mondesi has the first 70 SB season in the league since 2009.

Quick, where do you think Mondesi is going after 54 worthless PA this season?

Got your number?

Yeah, you’re too low. He’s still going 252nd. He is just 27 years old next year, but has amassed more than 75 games just once in his six seasons (five excluding 2020) and it was only 102. This is a 200-pick discount off his 2022 ADP, but is it enough? He will be declared “free” across the industry this offseason, a concept I understand, but I think it dismisses the value of post-200 picks and lets managers off easy for being careless in that range. If you pile up too many Mondesi types in that range, you are likely to end up with a lot of misses which will mitigate the upside of a hit.