Alex Chamberlain’s Five Bold Predictions for 2023

When I first started writing eight years ago, it felt necessary to provide a garrulous prologue about bold predictions, their meanings, the ethos behind the endeavor, et cetera, et cetera. Years went on, and that prologue grew leaner and leaner until we reached last year’s respectfully concise quip:

No prologue, just bold predictions. Bold, but not stupidly bold, and actionable in a way that can tangibly affect your fantasy season (for better or worse). Let’s go.

That still applies here, but I do want to say something: I am disappointed that I don’t have this year’s ________. Last year, it was Steven Kwan; the year before, Josh Rojas; before him, Jake Cronenworth; Jeff McNeil; José Ramírez; the hits keep on coming. No one stands out to me that way this year. That makes me sad. Disappointed, too, especially in myself. It’s not for lack of talent. It’s for lack of my time. I wish I had more time to immerse myself in the depths of the minor leagues.

I could probably rattle off a name or two that have a similar chance as those aforementioned. But it wouldn’t carry the same conviction. And conviction is the name of the game. So, sadly, there is no This Year’s Steven Kwan for 2023. I expect to remedy this issue next year. Please forgive me in the meantime.

OK, housekeeping’s complete. Let’s get into it, for realsies. (Note: the order here does not indicate preference or confidence. I randomized it!)

1) (Washington Nationals middle infielder) Luis García is a top-10 shortstop (or second baseman–he’s eligible at both).

Many of my bold predictions are analytically inclined. I think that’s why (at the risk of tooting my own horn) I deliver multiple solid, profitable bold predictions every year. Analytics plus market inefficiencies equals bold predictions, or something like that.

Sometimes, though, you need to simply have faith, something I’m not particularly good at. Last year, I had faith in Andrés Giménez. That faith wasn’t misplaced and, in fact, that bold prediction turned out really, really well. Before Giménez’s breakout, he attained two abbreviated cups of tea at an exceedingly young age. His calling card was speed, but his contact-oriented approach (undercut somewhat by his aggression) made him a threat to hit for average while making an impact on the bases.

García finds himself in a predicament not altogether unfamiliar. He is roughly 200 games into his career spread across three abbreviated seasons. He is, like Giménez was, entering his age-23 season. He has prospect pedigree on his side. And, truthfully, he might have more talent. Giménez made good on his feel for contact last year, but he never hit better than .287 at any stop above Rookie ball. García, on the other hand, only once hit lower than .297 while striking out less, walking more, and hitting for significantly more power, slashing .306/.368/.554/.922 (.248 ISO, 140 wRC+) with a home run every four games across 82 games at Triple-A.

That his production hasn’t materialized yet–in short spurts, as one of the youngest players on the field–is not indicative of current talent or future production. Among 11 hitters 22 years old (or younger) who amassed at least 200 plate appearances, his 113.4 mph maximum exit velocity (Max EV) ranks third behind only who else but Julio Rodríguez and Bobby Witt Jr. It ranked ahead of Michael Harris II, Wander Franco, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Alek Thomas, Nolan Gorman, and CJ Abrams. Those are not nobodies! Those are very decidedly somebodies. And then there’s García–the Nationals’ top prospect in 2020, a top-100 name in his class, but arguably an afterthought given this particular list of names.

Prospect growth isn’t linear, but García, at just 21 years old, had nothing left to prove in the minors. It’s time. He could break out for 20 home runs (I might take the over!) with, say, a .260 to .270 average and a handful of steals. That plays, my friends. His National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) average draft position (ADP) of 353.64 suggests he’s a last-round dart throw in 12-team leagues.

2) Alex Lange is a top-5 closer.

Among 5,490 pitcher-seasons of at least 60 innings from 2002 A.G. onward (A.G., unlike Anno Domini, stands for “After Gagne”), Lange’s 19.1% swinging strike rate (SwStr%) ranks 20th. (That’s easily 20th all-time as well given the proliferation of whiffs in this day and age.) The only names ahead of him provide fantastic company:

• 3x Jacob deGrom
• 3x Eric Gagne
• 2x Craig Kimbrel
• 2x Brad Lidge
• Josh Hader
• Andrés Muñoz
• Edwin Díaz
• Raisel Iglesias
• Ken Giles
• Liam Hendriks
• Aroldis Chapman
• Nick Anderson
• John Smoltz the closer!

Granted, Lange’s specs diverge from his counterparts. His 44.1% swing rate is uncommonly low, likely attesting to his uncommonly poor control (as does his bottom-of-the-barrel 54.6% first-pitch strike rate). And when hitters did swing, especially in the zone, they connected at an uncommonly high rate. It’s all quite unusual, certainly, and Lange’s walk-bloated spring does nothing to alleviate related concerns.

Looking purely at capital-s Stuff, though, Lange’s numbers pop. His curve (at nearly 50% usage) and change-up (20%) present themselves as elite dual-threat strikeout/ground-ball options. He pitches to contact with his power sinker that (1) he locates poorly and (2) is probably a little too flat for its intended purpose–hence, the abnormally low 5.4% whiff rate despite the appearance of ‘Stuff’. But it induces ground balls like a sonofabitch, which is the least you can ask for from a light-whiffing power sinker.

Given current usage patterns, there’s little reason to believe the strikeouts disappear. In fact, there’s every reason to believe they’ll increase from last year’s 30.3% clip. And such a high frequency of K’s helps offset a lot of the ill effects that he brings upon himself with poor fastball command. Unless he walks, like, 10 guys in his first five appearances, it’s hard to imagine he ever relinquishes the closer role this year–he just has so much more talent than the rest of the Tigers’ bullpen.

As for ascending to Elite Closer^TM status, if he can run a high-30s strikeout rate like the other whiff rate champions with whom he shares rarefied air, the double-digit walk rate is possibly immaterial. Just ask peak Chapman or Kimbrel. Lange is a longer shot than both of them, but as a closer with a seemingly secure role being drafted outside the top 300 (NFBC ADP 310.50), the upside resoundingly dwarfs the downside. And the ceiling is spectacular.

3) Kerry Carpenter is a top-30 outfielder.

For whatever reason, in my smooth-brained head, I find it funny to call him “Kirby Cupertino.” Don’t ask. The brain, it has no grooves anymore.

Before being alerted of the existence of Corey Julks–who, in 130 Triple-A games last year, put together a .270/.351/.503 line with 31 home runs and 22 stolen bases as a 26-year-old–I was alerted of the existence of Kerry Carpenter. And Carpenter, well, he did something more magnificent: he hit .313/.380/.645 with 30 home runs in just 98 games as a 24-year-old. (Somewhat hilariously, he stole just three of 13 bases, but hey! I appreciate the enthusiasm. And with the new rules in place, maybe those failures will convert to successes. I digress.)

Carpenter sort of kept up his momentum in a brief cup of tea last year, hitting six dongs in just 113 plate appearances. For those of you who love extrapolation (all of us), that’s a 30-homer pace. And even with a strikeout rate approaching 30%, his league-average BABIP and .252/.310/.485 line were 26 percent better than average, per wRC+.

Cupertino beat out Akil Baddoo for the Tigers’ fourth outfielder spot. The talking heads seem to think he’s only worth a reserve role behind Austin Meadows and Matt Vierling. I think there’s an argument to be made that he’s already better than both of them–at the very least, deserving of a platoon role, something that Roster Resource already anticipates. But if you think Carpenter crushed only righties’ skulls in the minors, think again. I think the cream rises to the top here, and he hits, I don’t know, 25 home runs? With a .250 average? Isn’t that what you’re hoping Christian Walker, Ryan Mountcastle, and Brandon Lowe will do?

Sorry, those guys catching strays—they’re not bad. I drafted two of them a couple of times! But I drafted Kirby Cupertino at his NFBCP ADP of 525.66 even more.

4) Michael Massey is a top-12 second baseman.

It’s hard to have two top-10 breakouts up the middle, let alone one, but let’s see if we can thread this needle. In 2021 at High-A Quad Cities, Massey slugged 21 homers with a .289/.351/.531 slash line and an impressive 15.5% strikeout rate. He followed up this gaudy performance with an arguably better one, developmentally, across 87 games at Double-A and Triple-A last year, compiling 16 home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a robust .312/.371/.532 line.

Our Jeff Zimmerman originally brought Massey to my attention with this tweet about Massey’s expected home run (xHR) totals last year. Normally, I wouldn’t read deeply (or hardly at all) into xHR counts, as they can be misleading. But when literally every park has a hitter hitting two, three, or even four times as many home runs than he did, it’s something actually worth paying attention to. If he actually hit eight (or more) home runs last year, he’d be a widely known breakout candidate; at NFBC ADP 460.44, he is an afterthought.

The second base job is his to lose–Roster Resource thinks he’ll platoon with Matt Duffy, but that seems ludicrous given the gulf in talent. Nicky Lopez won’t hold him back, either. Massey not only takes the job and runs but also becomes an indispensable part of the burgeoning young Royals core, hitting, like García, 20-plus home runs with a .260 average and a couple of steals.

5) Garrett Whitlock is the most valuable Red Sox starting pitcher.

There’s always a volume element with predictions like these, but also that’s kind of the point. The Red Sox’s rotation is in shambles, with the ghost of Corey Kluber making an Opening Day start ahead of Chris Sale, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Nick Pivetta. Brayan Bello and James Paxton will return from the Injured List (IL) shortly, likely to displace Houck and Crawford (because apparently no MLB team can quit Pivetta).

Ironically, Whitlock will start the season on the IL, too, but he, too, should return shortly as well. Unfortunately, there are eight names here, and Whitlock could be crowded out of a rotation spot upon his return. But this rotation, with Sale and Paxton and Kluber, is so brittle that Whitlock will not be short of opportunities to acquit himself of a permanent rotation spot.

I came away from Whitlock’s profile quite impressed. A pitcher throwing 60% sinkers would normally cause me to vomit in my mouth a little, but, thrown hard and flat, it operates almost like a four-seamer and probably would be better as one. In any sense, with a 12.6% swinging strike rate, it gets whiffs, something sinkers typically don’t do. His change-up and slider pile up whiffs, too, giving him no real weak link. I’ll be honest, though: I’m not certain location is a strong suit, and it could hold him back. His walk rates are very tidy–5.3% career to date–but given the contact he allows, it feels tidy the way Josh Tomlin’s walk rate was tidy. And Tomlin’s walk rate was tidy in a decidedly not good way.

But I don’t think Whitlock is anything like Tomlin, and I think Whitlock will pitch more innings than the only pitcher more capable than him on this staff: Sale. (Actually, I take that back: Bello could be the second coming of Luis Castillo. Bello deserves his own bold prediction, to be honest. But, in my estimation, it is trendier to be in on Bello than it is to be in on Whitlock. Mark my words, though: Bello will be very, very good. Really, this bold prediction should be: Garrett Whitlock and Brayan Bello are the most valuable Red Sox starting pitchers. But this feels bolder. I digress again.)

If Whitlock, with his preponderance of strikeouts thanks to a loaded arsenal and his aversion to issuing free passes, can make more starts than Sale, I think he’s in the clear. He’s a true-talent mid-3.00s ERA pitcher, something that Sale, despite his previous ace stature, might also be given his age (34) and recent injury history. I think folks fancy Sale as a sneaky bounce-back candidate, but all I see is immense risk. With Whitlock at NFBC ADP 297.51 and Sale at 146.29, this is either very bold or not bold at all. Honestly, Bello’s ADP (413.10) is way lower. Maybe this should’ve been about Bello, then? I don’t know. If it ends up Bello > Whitlock > Sale, I’m still taking credit for this.

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Thanks for joining me. I’m sorry I couldn’t publish this sooner so it could actually be helpful for you. (Unless you’re drafting tonight–then hurry!) As always, I appreciate and enjoy hearing your thoughts about the boldness of my predictions. Cross your fingers and enjoy your next six months of baseball bliss.