Last year, I did a Roster Review series throughout the fall/winter looking back at the 2021 season for all 30 teams while also including a Best Buy and Hot Take for 2022 (as well as an On the Rise and Off the Radar players, but I’ll probably review those in a separate piece down the line).

Let’s see how it all turned out!

NEW YORK YANKEES

BEST BUY: Giancarlo Stanton

It’s Judge… obviously. Stanton gave you 31 HRs in just 452 PA, but with a .211 AVG.

HOT TAKE: Gleyber Torres has a 30 HR season.

By letter of the law, it’s a miss as he hit just 24, buuutttt he more than doubled his 2021 output of 9 and didn’t give back all the SBs, either, netting his first double-double (24 HR/10 SB) so if the Hot Take moved Torres up on your board, you are happy with the results. I know there have been a billion jokes about his age, particularly when he smashed 38 HRs at age-22, but it’s worth remembering that he’s entering his age-26 season next year. While he might never hit that many again, he has upside at a fair price.

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Yesterday, I reviewed my bold hitter league leaders and actually got one right! Now let’s flip over to the pitching bold league leaders. Do I get another right or will my horrible injury luck get the best of me this time?

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Each year, in addition to my bold predictions, I also predict the league leaders in each of the five traditional fantasy categories, in each league, and for both hitters and pitchers. Let’s begin by reviewing my bold hitter league leaders.

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With the 2022 regular season officially in the books, it’s time to review alllllll the predictions, calls, and dreams I shared heading into the season. Let’s start with the bold predictions. I have not even looked at them since publishing, so I honestly cannot remember the players involved, let alone any of the specific predictions. I’m eager to find out not only how I did, but what my predictions were in the first place!

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Writing my ten bold predictions is one of my favorite things to do each season. Be bold! Be wild! Stake a claim and go out on a limb!

But then, October rolls around, and you have to reap what you sow. Today, I reap.

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The Predictions Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Scott Pianowski

Strategy Section

• 2022 Draft Season Wrap-Up
  • Younger players over boring vets
  • Reliable pitching
  • It’s less about the player information advantages, and more about the game play.
• What do you look for / watch closely for early in the season?
  • Roles
  • Manegerial tendencies
    • Lineup
    • Bullpen
    • Stolen base attempts
    • Platoon splits
  • Pitchers
    • Velocity
    • Walk and strikeout rates
    • Don’t look at pitch count
  • Which baseball is the MLB using?
• How quickly can you trust the hot/cold player starts?
  • Regression – Underperforming players vs overperforming players in terms of correction time
    • Kyle Hendricks
    • Noah Syndergaard
    • Yu Darvish
    • Nick Martinez

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It’s Bold Prediction time. Here are mine!

Akil Baddoo goes for 30 HR and 30 SB

My love for the 23-year-old Rule 5 pick is well known, and I really think he could be this year’s Cedric Mullins in terms of a breakout 30-30 player, though he certainly didn’t come as cheaply as Mullins did a year ago. Baddoo started out hot last year (1.070 OPS after 2 weeks) but with a 44% K and 3% BB rate in April, it felt like a mirage. His improvements were evident over the remainder of the season with a 24% K and 11% BB rate from May 1st on. Upping his competence against lefties will be required (.523 OPS last year) for this to come through, though the AL Central features just three projected lefty starters so he might see a smaller starter/reliever split for his lefty plate appearances (78% v. SPs last year). Lefty SP count in the ALC matters because so many games come against the other four teams in your division.

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Ahh, an April tradition like no other. With real baseball just scant hours away, it’s time to fulfill the obligation that every good tout must provide for our loyal constituency.

Let’s get weird.

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I am grateful to say that Opening day is finally here! Starting this afternoon, Major League Baseball games will officially count in the standings. Though the season will start a week later than expected, and despite a shorter spring training with an intense “hot stove” period – baseball normalcy is on the horizon.

The 2022 draft season was unique; it was bifurcated with a clear demarcation point in time. There was the period during the lockout, and the period post-lockout. Unfortunately, many of our fantasy baseball drafts and auctions this year were still shifted to virtual events. But all may be forgotten quickly after a full slate of fifteen games appear on the docket this coming weekend.

As our tradition over here at RotoGraphs, it is now time to share our bold predictions with you. This year will be my 5^th straight year of sharing with you a few unlikely events – that I believe have the chance to come true.

As usual, the ATC Projections have helped shape much of what is to come in this article. A few predictions come from my own personal analysis on the player, or of a team situation. Other nuggets arise from blind optimism or the crossing of my fingers. These are all possibilities that could happen, that I feel will happen if things break just right.

These are bold predictions, not crazy predictions. I am not going to predict the impossible. Myles Straw will not lead the majors in homers. Miguel Sano will not contend for a batting title. Greg Holland will not win 20 games. Those would not be bold predictions – those would be impossible ones.

My definition of a bold prediction is one that is some 10-30% likely. That is to say, they should roughly lie in the 70^th to 90^th range of percentile possible outcomes. If done right, one should expect to hit on at least one tenth but not more than one third of all bold predictions in the long-term. Any more outlandish a prediction would be miraculous, while any more probable would be too easy a guess.

Some bold predictions may be more likely than others, but all should go against the majority opinion. The point here is to call attention to a few undervalued (or overvalued) bets by the market. The aim is to focus on (or away from) a particular player or situation. Of course, the goal is also to have some fun!

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It’s almost baseball season, which means we are in the heat of bold predictions season, and I can’t pass on a chance to throw out some hot takes. Here are my ten bold (slightly Ottoneu-focused) predictions for the 2022 season.

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