It’s Bold Predictions time!! Check out the rest of the staff’s predictions here. I’m trying to have some spice here while also having a real path to coming to fruition. I know whenever we do these later in draft season there are inevitably some folks who bummed that it comes out when draft season is mostly done, but I promise you these are incorporating players I’ve already discussed at length this offseason so if you’ve been reading my work or listening to the pod, you’re aware of my affinity for these guys. Without further ado…

Seiya Suzuki is a Top 10 OF

Honestly, this is a playing time prediction as the skills are already there for Suzuki. He has been a .284 AVG/21 HR/11 SB guy the last two seasons with 583 and 585 plate appearances, respectively. This year, he pushes 650+ with his first fully healthy season and delivers a .290/30/15 season with 95+ R and RBI.

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This article highlights my bold predictions for the 2025 fantasy baseball season. I’ll set the over/under at three of these being right, as my goal is more to make you think than anything.  I have tried my best to embody these predictions in my various redraft and dynasty league decisions this offseason (that’s right, I still have Keston Hiura rostered in a few, admittedly deeper, formats!). I have listed them in approximate order of least to most bold.

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For the first time in many, many years, I failed to publish a bold predictions post last year. It was sad. We shall not let that happen again, so it’s time to think bold once again. I usually try to develop my bold predictions based on knowledge I don’t think is being captured by the projections. Or perhaps, it’s not being fully captured. So you won’t catch me boldly predicting that Young Player X, who hit 20 homers last year, will “break out” this season with 30 homers, because, ya know, he’s young and young hitters improve. That’s not boldly predicting, that’s just guessing based on general career trajectories. Alright, enough of the yadda yaddas, let’s get to ’em.

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Chad unleashed his Ottoneu-focused bold predictions on us yesterday, now I’ll take a crack at it. I’ve got five pitcher predictions and five hitter predictions; hopefully they’ll be of some use to you as the season starts up. Alongside the predictions, I’ve also included some draft data from the current offseason to get a better sense of how these players are being valued by the Ottoneu community right now.

1. Cristopher Sánchez is a top-10 SP (by P/IP among pitchers w/ 100+ IP)
Ottoneu Average Salary: $8.2
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $12.9

We’ve all seen the hype surrounding Sánchez this spring: he’s throwing harder and has added a cutter to his pitch mix to help him combat right-handed batters. Last year, he compiled 910 points across 181.2 innings, a 5.01 P/IP rate, but his current Depth Charts projection has him pinned at around 4.71 P/IP in 2025. His per inning performance in 2024 ranked 28th among pitchers with at least 100 IP last year, and his total points ranked 13th. His current draft price has him valued somewhere around the 40th starting pitcher and his overall average salary well below that mark (thanks to those lucky enough to roster him as a keeper with plenty of surplus value).

To break into the top-10, he’d have to add about a half point per inning and seriously outperform his projections. He’s already got a solid foundation with an elite groundball rate and corresponding low home run totals, he just needs to add strikeouts to his profile. He shouldn’t have trouble finding those punchouts with his increased velocity and new cutter.

2. Reese Olson is a top-25 SP (by P/IP among pitchers w/ 100+ IP)
Ottoneu Average Salary: $6.6
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $6.8

Would you believe that Olson slightly outperformed Sánchez on a rate basis last year with 5.1 P/IP? A shoulder injury cut his season short but he was fantastic while he was on the mound. His current draft price has him valued around the 65th starting pitcher and I’m sure the shoulder issues are a warning sign many can’t ignore.

What I like about Olson is that he has two absolutely killer secondary weapons in his slider and changeup that both return whiff rates north of 40% and also sports a curveball that isn’t far behind at 30%. Sure, his fastballs aren’t that great, but he’s throwing both his four-seamer and sinker about a tick harder this spring — surely a good sign for the health of his shoulder. If he stays healthy, leans on his secondary offerings, and maybe improves his fastballs, good things should be in store for him.

3. Eduardo Rodriguez is a top-50 SP (by P/IP among pitchers w/ 100+ IP)
Ottoneu Average Salary: $3.0
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $1.8

With an average draft price of just over a dollar and a roster% of just 54.8%, Eduardo Rodriguez is essentially an afterthought right now. He’s never really been an outstanding contributor in Ottoneu, but he’s only a year removed from posting a 4.9 P/IP season across 152.2 innings in 2023. Injuries absolutely wrecked his season last year but it seems like he’s fully healthy this spring. He’s struck out nearly 40% of the batter’s he’s faced and hasn’t allowed a run in Cactus League play and his velocity is even up slightly. He might not win you any leagues, but the potential for solid contributions at his current price is too good to pass up.

4. Max Meyer scores the most total points among Marlins starting pitchers
Ottoneu Average Salary: $3.6
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $3.3

Originally, this bold prediction included Ryan Weathers, but he just injured his elbow and will likely be out for a few months of the season. Womp womp.

I’m sure you’ve heard but Meyer has completely revamped his pitch arsenal this spring; he’s added a sinker and sweeper to his repertoire and his fastball is now sitting at 96 mph. He’s always had a high prospect pedigree but that mostly was thanks to his outstanding slider. This is the first time as a professional he’s had a fully realized repertoire to work with.

The other unspoken aspect to this bold prediction is the status of Sandy Alcantara. For this prediction to work out in my favor, I’m assuming Alcantara is traded this summer and that Meyers continues to pitch well for Miami throughout the entire season.

5. David Festa scores the second most total points among Twins starting pitchers
Ottoneu Average Salary: $3.6
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $2.7

I already wrote about Festa as an undervalued draft target a few weeks ago and my position hasn’t changed even though he’s been optioned to Triple-A to start the season. I wrote, “An ugly 4.90 ERA hid the fact that he posted a very good 3.76 FIP across his first 13 starts in the big leagues last year and all the projection systems think he should come close to replicating those peripherals again this year. He’s added a sinker to his pitch mix this spring and has continued to flash the swing-and-miss stuff that earned him the callup last season.”

I hedged my bold prediction a little by allowing one of Pablo López, Joe Ryan, or Bailey Ober to outscore Festa. His talent will outshine whatever the Twins are going to get from Chris Paddack or Simeon Woods Richardson and that’ll get him back to the majors pretty quickly. Taking Ryan’s injury questions into account and the slide backwards we saw from López in 2024, I’m betting Festa will emerge as the next great starter in Minnesota.

6. Brent Rooker is a top-3 OF (by P/G among batters w/ 300+ PA)
Ottoneu Average Salary: $12.1
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $24.3

The first thing that has to happen for this prediction to come true is that Rooker needs to establish OF eligibility. After signing his big five-year extension this offseason and now more than a year removed from his forearm injury, I think the A’s will give him enough time in the outfield to remove his util-only status.

From there, it’s just a matter of him continuing to crush the ball in a minor league ballpark without the oppressive marine layer hampering his batted ball quality. There are 18 outfielders being valued ahead of him — his positional limitations surely have something to do with that — but just five outfielders outscored him on a rate basis last year. He’ll need to leapfrog some absolute superstars in Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker for this prediction to come true. I think his continued improvement at the plate combined with his now favorable home ballpark will give him the boost he needs to sit right behind Aaron Judge and Juan Soto at the position.

7. Anthony Volpe is a top-12 SS (by P/G among batters w/ 300+ PA)
Ottoneu Average Salary: $9.6
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $8.9

I’m confident in saying that Volpe is a better real life player than he is a fantasy baseball player, and I’m not actually sold that he’s a good real life player to begin with. The first two seasons of his big league career have been rocky to say the least. A much ballyhooed swing change last year amounted to four added points of wRC+ and a much lower barrel rate than what he accomplished in his rookie campaign. His current draft price has him valued around the 18th shortstop.

When looking at players with significant increases in bat speed this spring, Volpe’s name stands out above the rest. He’s added three ticks to his average exit velocity, more than half the balls he’s put in play have been hard hit, and while that contact hasn’t translated to hits or production, there’s very clearly something cooking underneath the hood. More importantly, 50% of the contact he’s made this spring has gone to his pull side. Swinging hard and pulling the ball in the air is generally a recipe for damage; let’s hope this new approach carries over to the regular season.

8. Maikel Garcia is a top-15 2B (by P/G among batters w/ 300+ PA)
Ottoneu Average Salary: $3.9
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $2.9

In 2023, Garcia posted a .344 BABIP to fuel a .299 wOBA which translated to 4.1 P/G. Last year, his BABIP cratered to .268 despite no meaningful change in his underlying batted ball metrics, and his wOBA fell to .270 and just 3.4 P/G. He hits the ball too hard and runs too well to run a BABIP that low, plus he improved his strikeout rate by six points and hit for a little more power and still couldn’t shake that bad batted ball luck. I’m betting on those improvements carrying over while also enjoying a BABIP rebound leading to a true breakout season.

9. Miguel Vargas scores the most total points among White Sox hitters
Ottoneu Average Salary: $1.6
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $1.5

This bold prediction might come true simply by process of elimination. The White Sox are going to give Vargas every chance to succeed because he could be a core piece of their rebuild and who’s going to out hit him in their lineup? Luis Robert Jr., the oft injured star who might be traded away this summer? Andrew Benintendi, the light-hitting former star whose reputation far exceeds his actual production? Certainly not Andrew Vaughn, the former college star who hasn’t really put it all together in the big leagues yet. Vargas has really struggled himself — his career batting average across nearly 600 plate appearances is just .175 — but he’s tearing up spring training and has a wide open opportunity to prove he can stick in the big leagues.

10. Neither Roman Anthony or Kristian Campbell will be starting-caliber options at their respective positions in 2025

For the sake of the prediction, let’s say starting-caliber in Ottoneu is 4.5 P/G; that’s the 15th best 2B and the 45th best OF based on last year’s stats. But really, this prediction all comes down to opportunity. Both Anthony and Campbell are expected to be key contributors for the Red Sox sooner rather than later, but I think neither will be able to break onto the major league roster in a meaningful way this year. Campbell had an opportunity to make the Opening Day roster but fumbled it this spring and Marcelo Mayer might just be ahead of him in the pecking order now, and both those prospects are behind David Hamilton and possibly even Alex Bregman on the 2B depth chart.

Anthony has a little clearer path to playing time, especially if Ceddanne Rafaela struggles, but the Red Sox will need to fit Masataka Yoshida into the outfield picture if Rafael Devers is taking most of the at-bats at designated hitter. The addition of Bregman really mucked up the playing time opportunity for both of these top prospects. If they get a long run of playing time in 2025, things will have gone very poorly for the rest of Boston’s major league roster.

With the season nearly upon us (I refuse to count the Japan Series), it’s time for Bold Predictions. My goal here is for my predictions to be legimately bold – which means my end of season recap will be a bit depressing – but directionally useful – which means you can hopefully use these bold predictions to buy (or sell) on players and strengthen your teams.

As always, my bold predictions will be Ottoneu-focused.

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It’s time to go out on limb and make a few BOLD predictions. All of the ranks will be determined by using our auction calculator. All ADP mentioned is from 11 NFBC Main Event drafts. Read the rest of this entry »

I have a spiel I recycle each time I make bold predictions. It goes something like this: bold predictions should be bold but actionable. They should be founded primarily in logic with a little bit of wish-casting. A bold prediction made blindly is worth nothing. It’s all about the process.

Often my success with bold predictions is indicative of my success during the season. I am mostly in keeper/dynasty leagues, and my indifference to fantasy baseball the previous two years proved costly. Still, I had my best season since 2021 and turned a positive return on investment. It’s hard to ask for much more than a positive ROI, except for an even bigger one.

So, let’s see how I did here. I use Razzball Player Rater (12-team) values as my primary source of dollar values because it’s widely known, but I actually prefer my Pitch Leaderboard values (also 12-team; subscriber only). To me the scaling is more realistic and reflective of actual roster construction. To be clear, though, the difference is primarily the scale. Ryan O’Hearn, for example, despite being worth $7 according to my model, is the 131st-best hitter; for Razzball, at $2, he’s 137th-best.

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The 2024 Predictions episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Scott Pianowski

Strategy Section

• Draft Recap
  • Drafting early vs. drafting late
  • The influence of projections
  • Helium players
    • What causes them?
  • Closer trends
• Discussion about Average Draft Position (ADP)
• Our most drafted players
• FAAB in the first few weeks of the season
  • Importance
  • Opportunity Cost
  • How much to spend?
  • Tying in draft / roster construction

Bold Predictions

• Hitter predictions
• Pitcher predictions
• Team predictions

Awards Predictions

• MVP
• Cy Young
• Rookie of the Year

World Series Predictions

Injury Update

Softball

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One bold prediction for each position, in order (except there’s two each for outfield and starting pitcher). No preamble. Just go.

1) Jake Rogers is a top-12 catcher.

Rogers does not boast an especially unique skillset among catchers: he hits for power and not much else. To Rogers’ credit, however, he hits for a lot of power, definitely for catchers and even relative to non-catchers, too. With his strong pulled fly ball tendencies his path to 20-plus home runs is relatively frictionless.

Carson Kelly, a former 2nd-rounder and top-100 prospect, watched his blue-chip prospectdom expire long ago. Aside from breaking out during 2019’s juiced-ball season and a decent showing in 2021 he has unquestionably disappointed. He figures to fulfill the shallow side of a possible platoon with Rogers, one that would net him the usual one-fourth of the available plate appearances. That leaves perhaps 450 PAs, rather than the 360 PAs he’s projected for and that he accumulated last year, to push Rogers over the top as a catching option.

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Happy opening week of the major league baseball season!

Finally, after three straight highly irregular baseball years, we have some consistency heading into the baseball season!

Well, that is aside from the World Baseball Classic, of course. Oh, and then we also have the impact of the new rule changes, re-balanced schedule and the pitch clock. Plus, throw in a few ballpark alterations over the offseason …

However, in comparison to the past three seasons, in my mind, these are all welcomed differences. No more COVID pandemic, no more lockout – just watching the nation’s pastime.

As our tradition over here at RotoGraphs, it is now time to share our bold predictions with you. This year will be my 6^th straight year of sharing with you a few unlikely events – that I believe have the chance to come true.

As usual, the ATC Projections have helped shape much of what is to come in this article. A few predictions come from my own personal analysis on the player, or of a team situation. Other nuggets arise from blind optimism or the crossing of my fingers. These are all possibilities that could happen, that I feel will happen if things break just right.

As I state each and every year – please keep in mind the following. These are bold predictions, not crazy predictions. I am not going to predict the impossible. Jorge Mateo will not lead the majors in homers. Joey Gallo will not contend for a batting title. Mark Melancon will not win 20 games. Those would not be bold predictions – those would be impossible ones.

My definition of a bold prediction is one that is some 10-30% likely. That is to say, they should roughly lie in the 70^th to 90^th range of percentile possible outcomes. If done right, one should expect to hit on at least one of one tenth but not more than one third of all bold predictions in the long-term. Any more outlandish a prediction would need a miracle to occur, while any more probable would be too easy a guess.

Admittedly, some bold predictions may be more likely than others, but all should go against the majority opinion. The point here is to call attention to a few undervalued (or overvalued) bets by the market. The aim is to focus on (or away from) a particular player or situation. Of course, the goal is also to have some fun!

Without further ado, here are five bold predictions for 2023:

#1: Alec Bohm and Ryan McMahon will combine for 45 HRs, 155 RBIs and a .265+ batting average

For those who have followed my work in the offseason, you know that I have declared both Alec Bohm and Ryan McMahon to be highly undervalued by the drafting market. I found myself drafting one or the other in just about every fantasy league that I am participating in this year.

Let’s start with the 2023 ATC Projections for the pair:

ATC$ is the computed 15 team 5×5 rotisserie value, and the Market$ is the market equivalent pricing gathered from the past two weeks of drafts. According to ATC, both third basemen was a huge drafting bargain – marking a distinct “hotspot” for the position.

A hotspot is a group of players who are similarly valued by the market, where each player is a potential bargain (an undervalued player) AND either

• All play the same position
• All have a similar base of projected statistics

Bohm is capable of an 80+ RBI season in the heart of the Phillies lineup. He has averaged 74 RBIs per 162 games for the start of his career. With a career batting average of .277 and a career BABIP of .334, he is capable of hitting .285+.

The big question for him is power; can Alec Bohm hit 20+ HRs?

I believe that he can. He hit 13 in 2021 – with just an 8.8% HR/FB ratio. He started out slow last year, but from July 1 on he hit 9 HRs; he has slowly been lifting his launch angle. Bohm homered four times this Spring [and once on opening day].

For Ryan McMahon, he has never hit the 25 HR mark – but came close twice with 24 in 2019 & 23 in 2021. He also had 9 HR in the 2020 short season – a 24 homer pace. With a small upwards FB% yearly trend – I believe that he can surpass that in 2023, and possibly hit 30 bombs.

As an aside, Colorado Rockies players should see an offensive boost this year due to better average park factors. We all know that they already play half of their games in the high altitude of Coors Fields, but for this year, their away games get a boost! They won’t have to play as many games against the Dodgers, Giants or Padres – instead, they will face more of the weaker central teams. They will also get the opportunity to play more games in some of the more offensive ballparks of the east.

That change alone could add a few homeruns for McMahon. He has also hit the ball harder than ever this spring training. Additionally, Ryan has told reporters that he will be making a deliberate effort for more power this year. That should well translate to a 25+ HR total, and as stated earlier, perhaps even 30+.

Look for big seasons from these undervalued third basemen.

#2: George Kirby will be a top 10 starting pitcher

Earlier this year, I put together a presentation for the PitchCon online conference presented by Nick Pollack and PitcherList. You can watch that full presentation here.

The talk that I gave centered around ATC Volatility Metrics. I spoke about how to use ATC Volatility Metrics (InterSD, InterSK, IntraSD) to generate risk adjusted auction prices for each player.

Can you guess which major league player garnered the largest parameter risk value upwards adjustment?

It is George Kirby.

The underlying projections surrounding Kirby’s ATC value are very tight [low InterSD]. Furthermore, projections are heavily negatively skewed; outlier projections sit on the low side [negative InterSK]. Finally, Kirby’s value is well-spread categorically [low IntraSD]. There is a smaller chance of full value collapse. All in all, Kirby deserves a price tag ~$2 greater than his projected value states.

Speaking of … Kirby’s 2023 ATC Projections compute to 156 IP, 154 K (24.1% K%), 11 W, 3.44 ERA, 1.16 WHIP. He is the 27^th highest ranked starting pitcher, but I believe that he can make the jump into ace status. To do this, he needs to last in games a tad longer. He averaged just over 5 IP/GS in 2022.

Kirby is one of the best control pitchers in baseball with an average fastball of over 95 MPH. On the K-BB% leaderboard, he finished 23^rd highest in 2022 at 20.5%. None of the top 22 players had a lower walk rate than Kirby’s stellar 4.1%. Now for 2023, George is adding a splitter to his already excellent repertoire.

I expect big things to come here … and quickly.

#3: Christian Walker will hit at least 40 HRs

Not bold enough you say? Sure it is! Most projection systems show just a 24-28 HR projection for the D-Backs first baseman.

Systems are obviously baking in heavy regression, as Walker hit for a career high 36 HR in the majors last season. But whereas projection systems seem to be banking on smaller homerun totals, perhaps there instead will be more growth.

Let’s take a look at some relevant power metrics for Walker from the past few seasons:

There are many underlying components to observe here. First, Walker’s FB% and HR/FB% in 2022 were up from the prior two seasons’ levels. That’s very encouraging. He’s also hitting nearly twice as many barrels. Add to that the launch angle rise … and we have the elements of a big power bat coming together.

His plate discipline has also nicely improved. He walked 69 times last year – good for a 10.3% BB% rate. His strikeout rate manged to dip to an excellent 19.6%. These are very strong contact skills.

I believe in Christian Walker. That and a former major leaguer tipped me off to his quest for 40 bombs.

#4: Jake McCarthy, Jorge Mateo and Esteury Ruiz will combine for at least 115 stolen bases

Wow! An average of almost 40 SBs per player for three players? There was only ONE player in all of the major leagues with more than 40 last season (Jon Berti). This one is bold indeed!

Let’s take a look at the ATC Projected stolen base totals for these speedsters:

The bold prediction of 115 SB is rather far off from the ATC projected stolen base total of 85 … a whole 35% higher!

Stolen bases are often more situation/manager driven than anything else. Players make a pre-determination to steal bases when the opportunity persists. I feel that for this trio – they will attempt to run as much as they can.

Jake McCarthy has a career 84% stolen base success rate. ATC projects him for 545 plate appearances – so he should get ample playing time. In fact, he will likely hit in the top third of the Diamondbacks lineup every day against right-handed pitchers. Should his career 7% walk rate and 23% K% rate persist, he will get many running opportunities in 2023. ATC projects him to hit for a lofty .263 BA.

Esteury Ruiz stole 86 bases between the majors and minors in 2022. No, that is not a misprint. Ruiz also stole 6 bases in Spring training – the 4^th highest total in either the Grapefruit or Cactus leagues. We that know he will run at every chance he gets. The question is – will he get to first base, or will he morph into a poor man’s Billy Hamilton? He did have a ~.450 OBP in the minors last season, and the Athletics should be keen to give him plenty of playing time on an offensively strapped roster. I’m taking the over for this bold prediction.

Jorge Mateo finished as the American League stolen base leader in 2022 (2^nd in the majors). I need not convince you of his ability to run. He’s a terrific fielding shortstop, and should play most days [despite his fielding error on opening day]. ATC projects him to play 106 games, but I would suspect that he will get closer to 125-140. He played 150 games last year despite a mere .267 OBP. The Orioles might be willing to sacrifice some on-base percentage for defense and dynamic speed just as they did last year.

In addition – there are the new major league baseball rules regarding the larger base sizes and limited pickoffs. These should directly provide extra attempts all around baseball, and in particular to my trio in this bold prediction.

#5: Kevin Gausman will finish in the top 2 in the AL Cy Young voting

Well, after I poorly declared that Eduardo Rodriguez will out earn Kevin Gausman in 2022, this year, I figured I should turn a full 180 degrees and make the opposite prediction.

After a career year in 2021 where Gausman earned $27 in roto value (15 team 5×5 format), the Blue Jays starter slipped to just a $9 accumulated value in 2022. The low rotisserie earnings was not the reflection of missed time (175 IP) or poor strikeout totals (205 K / 28% K%). His ERA in ’22 was fairly decent at 3.35. The problem wasn’t his control either; Gausman’s walk rate was a pristine 3.9%.

So what was the matter?

The issue was the number of hits allowed (188) which drowned his WHIP to a 1.24 mark – his worst since 2019.

What was the source?

Clearly, it was Kevin’s enormous .363 BABIP. Gausman had the highest BABIP of all qualified pitchers in 2022, and by a wide margin. The second highest mark was teammate Jose Berrios’s .328. Gausman’s problems might have been team systemic or ballpark related.

It certainly was prominent at his new home ballpark. Take a look at last year’s home/road splits:

The argument against declaring Gausman’s quick return to 2021 levels is simple – he’s still playing in Toronto. However, the Blue Jays have made a push this offseason to improve their team defense. They imported Kevin Kiermaier and traded for Daulton Varsho, thereby vastly upgrading their outfield coverage. They also changed some physical park dimensions. Perhaps, batted ball luck will also turn in his favor.

ATC already predicts Gausman to be the 14^th best starting pitcher in baseball, and 6^th in the American league. With some BABIP correction, defensive containment, and a potentially lofty win total propped up by a very good offensive – Gausman can make it to the level of super elite American League pitchers in 2023.

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Wishing you a fantastic baseball season!