Alex Chamberlain’s 10 Bold Predictions for 2024: A Review

I have a spiel I recycle each time I make bold predictions. It goes something like this: bold predictions should be bold but actionable. They should be founded primarily in logic with a little bit of wish-casting. A bold prediction made blindly is worth nothing. It’s all about the process.

Often my success with bold predictions is indicative of my success during the season. I am mostly in keeper/dynasty leagues, and my indifference to fantasy baseball the previous two years proved costly. Still, I had my best season since 2021 and turned a positive return on investment. It’s hard to ask for much more than a positive ROI, except for an even bigger one.

So, let’s see how I did here. I use Razzball Player Rater (12-team) values as my primary source of dollar values because it’s widely known, but I actually prefer my Pitch Leaderboard values (also 12-team; subscriber only). To me the scaling is more realistic and reflective of actual roster construction. To be clear, though, the difference is primarily the scale. Ryan O’Hearn, for example, despite being worth $7 according to my model, is the 131st-best hitter; for Razzball, at $2, he’s 137th-best.

1) Jake Rogers is a top-12 catcher.

This was brutally, brutally bad. This was, in fact, not good process. So Rogers hit 21 home runs in 107 games in 2023? Who cares. Do the underlying numbers substantiate that power?

To an extent, they do. But 21 home runs on 26 barrels is high—and 26 barrels on 97 hard hits is, itself, also high. Rogers’ home run total this year was appropriate—maybe he was shorted a couple—but nevertheless I should have expected regression for a skill I blindly thought he could repeat.

On the other hand, I could have made this prediction about Shea Langeliers, who I noted at the bottom of the prediction that I also considered for my catcher-themed pick. He was a big part of my moderately successful Tout Wars squad. Langeliers showed similar skills—arguably identical skills, for better or worse—but fewer impediments to playing time.

Moreover, I actually did not roster Rogers in very many places. I think I only drafted him once in seven teams. He was not a high-priority target for me. That’s just not good bold prediction fodder. I need to have more conviction! Shame on me.

Razzball: -$10.0 overall, -$7.1 per game
Pitch Leaderboard: -$1.0 overall, -$1.9 per 650 PA
Verdict: L
Record: 0 for 1

2) Ryan O’Hearn is a top-20 first baseman.

You know, this looked really good to start. He made massive plate discipline gains (something I admit I could not foresee) en route to the highest wRC+ of his career (albeit by just one percentage point). However, he all but sacrificed his power to achieve those contact gains, his hard-hit rate plummeting dramatically.

The larger issue, though, is that O’Hearn just wasn’t a full-time player. He was a strong-side platoon, which was great in daily formats. On a per-game basis, he was a $5 player—21st-best among first basemen. But overall he was just a $2 player (1B 30 overall) because he did not play every day. That’s not viable outside of deep (15-team) or AL-only leagues, or, again, daily formats like Ottoneu where you could start him against righties exclusively.

I think there was better process here, but he would have been more valuable as his hard-swinging 2023 self. Moreover, it’s just hard to scratch top-20 value in part-time duty (only three players higher than him had fewer plate appearances).

Razzball: $1.9 overall, $4.9 per game
Pitch Leaderboard: $7.2 overall, $9.5 per 650 PA
Verdict: L
Record: 0 for 2

3) Luis Rengifo is a top-10 second baseman (or top-12 shortstop).

This one is devastating because Rengifo absolutely would have nailed this prediction if a hit-by-pitch hadn’t broken his hand. He was the 4th-best second baseman and 8th-best shortstop (min. 300 PA) per game played. It all unfolded exactly as I anticipated: Rengifo, a contact-oriented speedster who hadn’t really run much as a Major Leaguer, would suddenly thrive under Ron Washington’s newfound desire to emphasize baserunning. He then put up what is effectively a .300/.350/.400 slash line with a 50-SB pace. And he actually hits for some power! He is arguably one of the only good things to come out of Anaheim in recent years.

I’ll be curious to see how folks value him next year. They may view his sporadic playing time as “injury-prone.” He’s much closer to a .260 hitter than a .300 hitter, but a 15-30-.260 hitter absolutely gets the job done.

Razzball: -$2.7 overall, $22.5 per game
Pitch Leaderboard: $11.0 overall, $23.3 per 650 PA
Verdict: L (sadly)
Record: 0 for 3

4) Amed Rosario is a top-15 shortstop (or top-12 second baseman).

Rosario apparently went to Driveline in the offseason to work on his bat speed. I hoped this training and his nebulous super-utility role with the Rays would bear fruit. It did, to some extent: his 96 wRC+ was playable, with a .280 average and 13 stolen bases in 103 games. The issue, partly, was playing time (again), as he played very infrequently after the first couple of months of the season. Moreover, despite the bat speed training, he did not actually hit for more power—in fact, he hit for less.

These things happen. Driveline works with lots of hitters. Not all of them pop. It’s harder to predict Driveline-affiliated pitcher breakouts; the hitter breakouts, however, among those who work on bat speed with Driveline seem to be more reliable. Rosario was a false positive. And José Caballero, who I thought would hit himself out of a job, actually retained a job for much of the year thanks to his defense (+9.2) and baserunning (1.5 wSB) but not his bat (83 wRC+).

He was helpful in the beginning of the season, though. His April was worth his draft price if you didn’t cling too tightly.

Razzball: -$10.7 overall, -$1.7 per game
Pitch Leaderboard: $2.2 overall, $4.2 per 650 PA
Verdict: L
Record: 0 for 4

5) Eugenio Suárez is a top-12 third baseman.

This prediction looked worse than the Rogers prediction for half the season. Then I cut Suárez in an Ottoneu league on June 30. The rest, as they say, is history.

April through June: 6 HR, 2 SB, .196/.279/.312 (66 wRC+)
July through September: 24 HR, 0 SB, .312/.357/.617 (162 wRC+)

Just an astounding turnaround, so massively big that he ended up being Razzball’s 7th-best third baseman. Unreal.

Not much else to say. He was getting drafted outside the top-300 and put up a $20+ season. Whammy.

Razzball: $21.6 overall, $12.5 per game
Pitch Leaderboard: $16.5 overall, $16.7 per 650 PA
Verdict: W
Record: 1 for 5

6) Nelson Velázquez is a top-35 outfielder.

This was quite bad. Unlike Rogers, I did draft a lot of Velázquez, so I’ll own this one. I don’t think the process was horrible, though. I even acknowledge that he was more of a 20-to-25-homer guy with some steals and a bad batting average. That evaluation was pretty accurate: he was basically on pace for a 20-5-.200 season.

Except that is, in fact, quite bad (although Razzball says he was roughly break-even on a per-game basis). I thought Velázquez’s batting average on balls in play (BABIP) would rebound, but it didn’t. Moreover, the hard hits dried up; it wasn’t regression as much as it was crashing back to the earth and exploding spectacularly. It was catastrophically bad to the point where he was unplayable and the Royals eventually optioned him.

I still don’t think this was horrible, but it was certainly high-variance. We saw one extremely unlikely outcome in 2023; I think we saw a similarly unlikely outcome in 2024. I would expect Velázquez is a role player next year with better results. But ever since he left the Cubs’ farm in 2023 he has not been anywhere near as productive as he was.

Razzball: -$17.2 overall, -$0.9 per game
Pitch Leaderboard: $1.4 overall, $3.8 per 650 PA
Verdict: L
Record: 1 for 6

7) Brenton Doyle is a top-45 outfielder.

Oh, hell yeah, baby. Again, what is there really to say? This prediction was predicated on the idea that Doyle was, in fact, not a true-talent 45 wRC+ hitter. As the 13th-best outfielder and 44th-best player overall, he paid handsome dividends.

To be clear, he’s not a spectacular real-life hitter: wtih his propensity to strike out, he was merely league-average and might still be worse next year. He is, though, basically what fantasy-heads always wanted Garrett Hampson to be: a moderately power-hitting speedster in Colorado.

I’ll collect my winnings now.

Razzball: $20.6 overall, $17.8 per game
Pitch Leaderboard: $18.6 overall, $20.0 per 650 PA
Verdict: W
Record: 2 for 7

8) Trevor Rogers is a top-40 starting pitcher.

Bruuuuutal. But, you know what: I don’t hate this one. Rogers was possibly one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year who saw as many innings as he did. From a process standpoint I simply expected his velo would rebound after having an offseason to recoup from his first MLB innings back from injury. Instead, his velo took another step back, and everything bad that followed can be blamed on it.

Looking forward, the Orioles acquired Rogers. Given his production to date, and his similarly bad production thereafter, folks were rightly upset. This, to me, was never a short-term play, although the O’s tried to parlay it into one. I think the O’s see a guy who, with better health and mechanics, can possibly recapture the velo that made him a mid-rotation arm a few years ago. I think the team had a vision for him, and he got optioned specifically for them to work on it with him. He’ll have the offseason, too. So I’m cautiously optimistic again that a Rogers rebound might come.

As for this year: an unmitigated disaster.

Razzball: -$25.2 overall, -$40.2 per game
Pitch Leaderboard: -$9.9 overall, -$16.1 per 200 IP
Verdict: L
Record: 2 for 8

9) Nick Martinez is a top-60 starting pitcher.

So, the Doyle pick was dope, and the Suárez pick hit, and the Rengifo prediction was lit, too, despite circumstances. But I think this was my favorite prediction. He ended up 46th among all pitchers, 37th among starters.

Martinez has had great peripherals, albeit in a mostly-relief role. He basically went from swingman to rotation staple fueled largely by an elite change-up. It boasted a swinging strike rate (SwStr%) north of 20% and was 3rd-best in suppressing opposing hitters’ exit velocities (EVs), to the tune of roughly 9(!) mph lower than average. Generally I agree with xFIP and SIERA with the implication that Martinez over-performed. I do think he’s more of a high-3.00s ERA guy. But xFIP and SIERA broadly fail to account for EV suppression as a skill that some pitchers do, indeed, own.

I’m extremely curious how folks view Martinez next year. He’ll be 34 and the K’s weren’t gaudy. But his 3.31 ERA his 17th-best of 77 pitchers who have thrown at least 350 innings the last three years.

Razzball: $9.8 overall, -$3.1 per game
Pitch Leaderboard: $15.1 overall, $15.9 per ~148 IP (blend of SP and RP innings)
Verdict: W
Record: 3 for 9

10) Three of these non-closer relief pitchers will be top-15 closers.

This was a sprawling prediction. Let’s review the component parts.

Yennier Cano, because Craig Kimbrel is on his last leg

Correct, but bad timing. Kimbrel is cooked, dude got DFA’d in the middle of a playoff push. But, unfortunately, Kimbrel persisted for much of the season, leaving crumbs for Cano—and by the time Kimbrel got the boot, (low-quality) reinforcements in the form of Seranthony Domínguez had arrived.

Yuki Matsui, because Robert Suarez does not strike me as particularly capable or talented

Not correct; Suarez is decent, although I remain skeptical of the overall package. It’s a good fastball, and Stuff+ likes sinker, although I am skeptical of his command. The change-up is average. The bigger issue is Matsui was not demonstrably better. They are such different pitchers: Suarez is all power-fastball; Matsui relies heavily on two plus-or-better secondaries (slider and splitter). I think they could be reliable, if uninspiring, closers for any MLB team. It’s a good problem for the Padres to have.

Robert Stephenson, because Carlos Estévez is outright bad

Dead on arrival: Stephenson missed the entire season. He tore his UCL, like, minutes after I published my predictions. Meanwhile, Estévez was fine. He throws a power slider and power change, both of which probably do not have enough velo differential from his 97-mph fastball. Which is to say, a wider velo differential might improve them more. But, also, 90-mph change-ups are simply good in and of themselves. I think pitching models see it as a bad sinker and not a good, hard change-up—although I could be projecting my own incorrect evaluation of his pitch traits.

Estévez’s fastball, though, is bad, and while he escaped 2024 mostly unscathed, the underlying metrics suggested he got lucky. Cleaning up his walk rate helped keep him afloat.

But, again, ultimately this comes down to Stephenson literally not throwing a single pitch. And he probably won’t for most of 2025, too.

James McArthur, because he may actually be elite

Spoiler: he’s not. It was a fun small-sample exercise, though. McArthur actually added some velo and fared worse than in 2023. He found more whiffs between his slider-curve pair, but everything got squared up more. The increased velo made it such that both pitches came in much flatter, and while it created more whiffs it made them more vulnerable—an odd but legitimate catch-22. The change-up, which was superb at managing contact, got barreled badly.

I think there’s still something here, but the Royals need to tinker with it. Lucas Erceg should be the 2025 incumbent.

Andrew Nardi, because Tanner Scott has had an abysmal spring while Nardi worked on a splitter (don’t look at Nardi’s spring training FIP, please)

So, so wrong. But, also, this is pudding-proof that reliever seasons are extraordinarily fickle. Nardi? 24.8% K-BB, 2.75 xERA, 2.77 SIERA. Scott? 16.3% K-BB, 2.92 xERA, 3.55 SIERA. At worst, they were break-even; at best, Nardi was better.

This is using data to manipulate a narrative, because my own pFIP paints Scott as significantly better.

Case in point why making judgments about three or four spring training innings is usually a bad idea. Tanner Scott doesn’t know where the ball is going, but aside from that he has great capital-‘s’ Stuff.

Verdict: L
Record: 3 for 10

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Hope you all enjoyed. Hope it was at least a little bit informative from a process standpoint.