It’s time to check in on my preseason bold predictions.

Note: For all the rankings, I used ESPN.com’s Player Rater.

BOLD prediction #1: Trea Turner will perform 20 spots worse than his ADP suggests.

I’m going to luck into getting this one eventually. Turner was going way too early compared to my projections. I saw him more as a 2nd to 3rd round talent.

He was proved me wrong by stealing 35 bases until he fractured his wrist in late June and will likely miss all the 2017 season. He currently ranks 7th overall but his value will continue to drop as others continue to rack up the counting stats.

Batting 1.000

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‘Tis the season for reviewing bold predictions, let’s check in and see if my second year of predictions is going any better than my first did (1 for 10):

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I posted my Bold Predictions back on April 3rd and with many of my colleagues checking in on theirs, I decided to give it a go as well and see where I stand with my 10 predictions.

JAMES PAXTON IS A TOP-15 ARM.

The injury hurt, but this one is still very much in play. He ranks 26th on ESPN’s Player Rater with a 3.19 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 28% K, and 8% BB in 87.3 IP. Obviously to be a full on win, he needs to get up into the top 15, but if he finishes anywhere in the top 25 or so, I’ll feel good about this one.

He was being taken as the 39th starter on average in NFBC leagues so he wasn’t completely off the radar by any means, but I definitely feel like I was one of the highest on a Paxton breakout. I was concerned in his first few starts off the DL, but he’s looked really sharp since I posted that piece with a 3.13 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 38 Ks in 31.7 IP.

KEVIN GAUSMAN STRIKES OUT 200 BATTERS.

LOL.

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Before I get into just how completely wrong my first prediction is/was, I want to briefly explain my outlook for the Bold Predictions in the first place.  I think these should be fun and spark conversation. As a result, they should probably be controversial, at least in part. There should be a reason for each pick, and the reason shouldn’t necessarily be built on a strong hypothesis. If you have a solid reason to believe something then you aren’t talking about a bold prediction, it is just a normal prediction. Bold predictions should be built on a questionable foundation, that’s the fun part.

I view this as a testing ground for ideas. Most of these are arguments I would have otherwise quietly kept to myself. Any by quietly I mean tweeted out once and then retweeted at the end of the season if they came true. Just kidding.

Having said all that, let’s get to my first and worst prediction. Oh jeez, here we go. Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve never performed a mid-season review of my pre-season bold predictions because I typically forget what I predicted and like to be surprised when I recap them six months later. But the article I wanted to write cannot be done, so here I am stepping into uncharted waters. Can you feel the excitement?! My goal this year is to beat my personal record setting 2016 performance of four correct bold predictions. Let’s see if I have any chance whatsoever.

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Bold predictions are inherently jovial, whimsical, outlandish, possibly even blasphemous. You know you probably weren’t bold enough if you got too many correct, and you probably were too bold if you got too many incorrect. Mine typically follow suit. I don’t expect to get every prediction correct by the numbers, but I do hope each prediction is correct in spirit. My “spiritual” success in this regard, I’ve noticed, typically reflects upon how well my teams performed in a given season. Accordingly, I take my predictions seriously, and I sincerely use them as a collective barometer for how I had gauged value plays in the preseason.

I don’t remember any of my predictions, really, and I’m revisiting them in real time with you. My teams are doing well this year — 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in my three home leagues (humblebrag) (no expert or high-stakes leagues this year) — but I have a feeling my predictions have not stood the test of time. Again, this is to be expected. But, again-again, I’m not sure they’ve held up spiritually, either.

Here goes:

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I joined the Army when I was seventeen years old. 9-11 had just happened and I was determined to serve my country in the same way as my father, during Vietnam, and my grandfather, during World War II. After scoring in the 99th percentile on the ASVAB, the military’s entrance exam, I had my pick of virtually any job I wanted. Being young and cocky, I decided I wanted to be an interrogator. To do so, I had to take and pass another test called the Defense Language Aptitude Battery (DLAB). Read the rest of this entry »

At the time of this writing, there are 37 major league hitters with a wRC+ of 150 or higher. There are the usual suspects: Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, and Nolan Arenado are on the leaderboard to no one’s surprise. There are exciting young prospects, including Mitch Haniger, Aaron Judge, and Joey Gallo. Then there are unexpected names like Eric Thames, Cesar Hernandez, and Robbie Grossman.

Lengthy articles could be, and have been, written about any of the players above. One player who hasn’t received much publicity despite some relatively prolonged success is Grossman.

He checks in with a 158 wRC+ in 67 plate appearances so far this year. Steamer projects a .322 wOBA and 99 wRC+ for the rest of the season (ROS), and that projection puts him just a few ticks behind his highly-touted teammate Max Kepler. Although Kepler is three years younger and may have a higher ceiling, the point is that name recognition can play a pretty big role in how we analyze players.

Also, Grossman used to be bad. From 2013 to 2015, he had just a .281 wOBA and 77 wRC+ in 202 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, despite being a switch hitter. Since 2016, however, Grossman has a .417 wOBA and 166 wRC+ in 170 plate appearances against lefties. Even with his early-career struggles against lefties, Grossman now has a lifetime .344 wOBA and 118 wRC+ against them. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I unveiled my bold hitter league leaders, with the acknowledgement that these are a lot tougher to hit than the generic Bold Predictions. The pitching side of the ledger is a bit easier, but still difficult, of course. Given that there is more luck and factors outside the specific pitcher’s control involved that shape his surface results, it’s more conceivable that a non-favorite leads the league in a category.

In an effort to avoid double dipping and naming the same pitcher in two categories, there may have been a slightly better bold choice for a particular category. I opted to come up with different names in each. Also keep in mind that it is difficult to balance boldness with realistic. I eliminated many names that I didn’t think were bold, but maybe you do. I also eliminated names that have no real chance at leading in the category.

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They are here and they’re spectacular:

JAMES PAXTON IS A TOP-15 ARM.

I ended up with Paxton slotted at #33 in the March rankings update and by the time I was in the throes of my drafts, I was taking him as high as the late-20s. A 10-15 rank jump at this level would still be significant. Last year, some late-20s arms included Michael Fulmer, Cole Hamels, and Julio Teheran, all of whom had great seasons, but the likes of Noah Syndergaard, Tanner Roark, and Masahiro Tanaka were at the backend of the top-15. Paxton needs to stay healthy for the first time in his career, but the skills are there.

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