Mike Podhorzer’s 2017 Bold Predictions – A Review

The regular season is officially in the books! And what a season it was. I hope all of you, every single one of you, won a league. Hopefully, it was thanks to some of my bold predictions, of which I have completely forgotten the specifics since my midseason review. I have no idea how I did, so let’s be surprised together. For a referesher on my thought process behind each prediction, check out the original bold prediction article.

1. Taijuan Walker posts a sub-3.50 ERA

Holy guacamole! Walker ended up winning this prediction for me by literally the slimmest of margins, as he finished with a 3.49 ERA. But luckily for me, it wasn’t because of any sort of skills surge as a result of moving to the National League. His strikeout rate barely increased, while his walk rate shot upwards. All in all, his SIERA actually jumped to a career worst level. I was even more intrigued by a focus on using his slider during Spring Training, but that did nothing for his results. I’m curious what his price will be next season, but given how much good fortune he enjoyed, I’m unlikely to be an owner again.

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2. Adam Duvall blasts 40 homers

In 31 more at-bats, Duvall ended up hitting two fewer home runs than in 2016, finishing with 31. It was another strong year, proving that 2016 was no fluke, but he didn’t up his HR/FB rate like I thought he was capable of. Surprising, considering seemingly everyone else enjoyed a power spike.

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3. Nate Karns posts a lower ERA and WHIP than Aaron Sanchez

This one ended up pretty close on the ERA side, but Karns ended up with the win, 4.17 to 4.25. On the WHIP side, it was no contest, with Sanchez ending at a hilarious 1.72, while Karns was at a strong 1.19. The funny thing is my history of apparently cursing my bold prediction subjects to injuries, and sure enough, both these pitchers were injured most of the season. Karns finished with just 45.1 innings pitched, while Sanchez sat even lower with 36.

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4. Nelson Cruz hits less than .260 with fewer than 30 homers

This was based on the assumption of age-related decline, which Cruz had yet to experience, and my expectation of a BABIP collapse. Instead, he performed exactly the same as he has over the previous three seasons. While his HR/FB rate did drop back into the low-20% range, his BABIP was nearly the same. There are no signs of decline yet, but I’m still not willing to pay market price for a 37-year-old, especially when that price is going to be high once again.

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5. Wil Myers combines for fewer than 35 homers + steals

Ehhh, well hey, his steals did drop and his homers + steals did decline from 2016! BUT, Myers combined for 50 homers + steals, which was way above my maximum of 34 to get this bold prediction right. Myers actually partook in the so-called “fly ball revolution” by upping his fly ball rate to a new career high above 40%. That allowed him to knock 30 long balls, despite striking out more and experiencing a slight HR/FB rate decline.

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6. Jaime Garcia outearns Danny Salazar

Who knew that this would turn out to be a battle of two busts. According to CBS rankings, Garcia finished in the 500s, while Salazar finished 404th. Garcia’s control deserted him and then he was shipped off to the American League, where his strikeout rate actually increased, but control got even worse. He also won just five games all season, which killed any potential fantasy value. Salazar was one of the bigger pitching busts, as he battled injuries again and suffered through an inflated .343 BABIP and 16.1% HR/FB rate. His health will once again make him a high risk, high reward guy next season.

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7. Ryan Schimpf hits more homers than Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper’s injury made this closer than it should have been, but Schimpf’s HR/FB rate was nearly as high as Harper’s. Unfortunately, Schimpf’s extreme approach to hitting earned him a ticket to the minors and he never returned after just 165 at-bats. He probably won’t get a chance at a starting job again.

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8. Byung-ho Park swats 30 homers

Easily my worst prediction of the year. Park never even made to the Majors this year, instead wallowing at Triple-A, where he failed to hit even minor league pitching. And what happened to his power?! He posted just a 16.7% HR/FB rate there and a .162 ISO. His plate patience also disappeared and he struck out as often as in 2016. I wonder if he’ll get one more shot again at a job.

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9. Shelby Miller strikes out 200 batters

The bold prediction curse strikes again! That increased fastball velocity that got me excited did follow him into the regular season and push his strikeout rate back up to a level he hadn’t seen since 2013. But that may have also led to the elbow injury that forced him to undergo TJ surgery and knock him out for the season after just four starts and 22 innings pitched.

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10. Mark Canha outhomers Christian Yelich

This was both an intrigue with Canha as it was sharing my pessimism on Yelich’s power — neither of which actually worked out for me. Canha was terrible and received just 183 plate appearances, while Yelich did see his HR/FB rate dip back into the teens like I expected, but nudged his fly ball rate up again to offset some of the home run loss. The career high fly ball rate is nice for Yelich’s power, but hurting his BABIP, and resulting batting average. He’s not going to post another 20%+ HR/FB rate, so I wonder which version of Yelich is the most productive for the Marlins. If his fly ball rate drops back to around 20%, he’s going to slip back to the low-to-mid teens in homers, but back to flirting with the .300 plateau.

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