Mike Podhorzer’s 2017 Bold Predictions – Mid-Season Review

I’ve never performed a mid-season review of my pre-season bold predictions because I typically forget what I predicted and like to be surprised when I recap them six months later. But the article I wanted to write cannot be done, so here I am stepping into uncharted waters. Can you feel the excitement?! My goal this year is to beat my personal record setting 2016 performance of four correct bold predictions. Let’s see if I have any chance whatsoever.

2017 Bold Predictions

1. Taijuan Walker posts a sub-3.50 ERA

Walker is right on the cusp, as he’s sitting on a 3.65 ERA over 14 starts, though his underlying skills have taken a nose dive. The strikeout rate surge we all expected given the move to the National League has not yet materialized, while his walk rate has spiked. It’s not getting exceptionally fortunate in any of the three luck metrics, but he really needs to improve that K-BB%. I still feel like with his stuff, the light could turn on at any moment.

2. Adam Duvall blasts 40 homers

So, so close. He’s at 20 homers right now, putting him on pace for about 37 long balls. His fly ball and HR/FB rates are nearly identical to last year, with the improvement coming in his strikeout rate, which is marginally better. He’s swinging and missing less often, which needs to continue for him to flirt with that 40 homer level.

3. Nate Karns posts a lower ERA and WHIP than Aaron Sanchez

As usual, one of the players I made a bold prediction for is injured and may very well be out for the season. So it’s likely that Karns’ numbers are in the books, which might be enough to make this prediction right. Sanchez has been injured himself and was terrible when on the mound, so it will be interesting to see how he performs upon his return. The WHIP win for Karns should be in the bag, so it will probably come down to the ERA.

4. Nelson Cruz hits less than .260 with fewer than 30 homers

I made this extremely difficult for myself for essentially going with two bold predictions in one. At age 37, I thought a sudden dramatic decline in performance could be in the cards and he was BABIPing way over his head to begin with. Welllll, his BABIP has barely dropped, and since his strikeout rate has dropped to the second lowest mark of his career, his batting average is nearly the same as last year. But hey, his HR/FB rate has fallen precipitously! He’s actually on pace for just about 31 homers, so I may just miss this part, but still be right in spirit.

5. Wil Myers combines for fewer than 35 homers + steals

Soooo ummm, his steals pace is down! But he’s on pace for one more homer than last year. He’s already at 26 homers + steals combined, so it’ll take a really terrible second half for me to hit this one.

6. Jaime Garcia outearns Danny Salazar

Wow, both pitchers have been pretty awful, so it might come down to who pitches fewer innings! Funny, Salazar has three more strikeouts than Garcia in 44 fewer innings. I’m not sure what would be better for Salazar’s fantasy value — returning as a starter or reliever. This one will come down to the final game.

7. Ryan Schimpf hits more homers than Bryce Harper

Stop laughing. Please. Schimpf redefined what it meant to be an outlier, sitting at the extreme ends of many offensive metrics. But, in 53 games, he did hit 14 homers. Let’s just extrapolate that out to 162 games…that’s about 43 homers! Meanwhile, Harper has hit 20 homers in 81 games, which would put him on a 40 homers pace if he played all 162 games. So this was an interesting one in spirit as I did hit on believing in Schimpf’s homer output, but failed to account for the risk he loses his job. And oh yeah, I forgot that Harper still had HARPER inside him, rather than just Harper of 2016.

8. Byung ho Park swats 30 homers

Perhaps my worst prediction yet. He has remained in Triple-A all year and hit an embarrassing four homers over 230 at-bats. That’s just a 9.8% HR/FB rate folks! At this rate, he’ll need four years to reach 30 homers. He’s already 31 and can’t even hit at Triple-A so he’s looking like a lost cause.

9. Shelby Miller strikes out 200 batters

The injury curse is alive! Another pitcher out for the year. What the heck goes on with me and picking guys that go on to miss huge chunks of games? Before going down, Miller intrigued with a significant bump in fastball velocity. Oddly, although it had led to a strikeout rate rebound, it merely jumped back to where it had been before his disastrous 2016 season. And his SwStk% still remained below the league average.

10. Mark Canha outhomers Christian Yelich

Yeah yeah, this one looks hilarious now too. Yelich’s HR/FB rate has dropped back to his pre-2016 days which was part of the spirit of this prediction. And hey, if you include his Triple-A stats, Canha has hit 12 homers this year…that’s more than the eight from Yelich! I didn’t mention only MLB stats count, right, RIGHT?!

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So let’s see — four with no chance, two that are unlikely, and four that are still possible. Looks like I won’t be breaking my own record and I’ll probably end up settling for just two to the three wins this year. Oh well, there’s always 2018!