Archive for Bold Predictions

Opening day is now just one short day away. The days this week seem to creep by ever so slowly for a baseball lover. We have already had our fantasy drafts and auctions, and now we want to watch/see how our teams will perform, both fantasy and in real life. Baseball is back … and this year, we get to watch real baseball games that start to count in March!

Below are my 2018 bold predictions. Some of them stem directly from a small stretch of the ATC Projections, which can be found here on FanGraphs. Others come from my own personal analysis on the player, or team situation. The rest arise from some sheer wild optimism, but I have convinced myself that it could happen.

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Yesterday, I unveiled my bold hitter league leaders, with the acknowledgement that far more difficult to hit than the generic Bold Predictions. The pitching side of the ledger is a bit easier, though. Given that there is both more luck and factors outside the specific pitcher’s control that shape his surface results, it’s more conceivable that a non-favorite leads the league in a category.

In an effort to avoid double dipping and naming the same pitcher in two categories, there may have been a slightly better bold choice for a particular category. I opted to come up with different names in each. Also keep in mind that it is challenging to balance boldness with realistic, considering this requires me to bet against a group of names in which it’s like a 95% lock that one of them wins the category. I eliminated many names that I didn’t think were bold, but maybe you do. I also eliminated names that have no real chance at leading in the category. I decided against a bold wins league leader, because wins are silly and unpredictable. All I usually do is pick a good pitcher on a top offense.

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Every season, in addition to posting my standard bold predictions, I up the ante with my bold league leaders. If you thought nailing a bold prediction was tough, the bold league leaders are even more difficult! Just getting one right is worthy of celebration. Because these are bold, I automatically disqualify players I don’t personally believe is considered bold or is projected to finish top five in the category. So I challenge myself and it typically causes me to bat .000. This is more for fun and dreaming of what could be than any serious attempt at being right.

We’ll start with the hitting league leaders in each of the five categories, split up by league.

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Time again to join us as we shop for bargains where others see only discards and dreck. Our specialty—or shtick, if you prefer—is finding $1 and reserve round bargains who figure to do better than the market says they will. You wouldn’t want to assemble a team full of these guys, except as an entertaining academic exercise. But there’s no denying that the 2017-model Scott Schebler, Delino DeShields, Jimmy Nelson, or Aaron Altherr, all of whom we touted in last year’s installment, would have toned up your roster right nice. So let’s pretend it’s an early-Spring Saturday morning in the ‘burbs, hop in the SUV, drop the kids off at lacrosse practice, tour the local yard sales, and see if we can unearth some rare 78s buried among the old Jethro Tull albums. As before, we offer you ten players that everyone’s ignoring, plus one pricier guy who still looks undervalued to us. In no particular order: Read the rest of this entry »

If you’re looking for my hitter predictions, you can find those here. Below, I wrap up my 10 bold predictions for 2018 with five pitcher predictions. Read the rest of this entry »

Only four days until Opening Day! Now that all my drafts and auctions have been completed, it’s finally time to reveal my 2018 bold predictions.

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After batting .100 in my first attempt at bold predictions here on RotoGraphs, and .200 in my second go around, I’m back for a third season with .300 as my goal. Anyone can hit .300 hitting softballs, so let’s make sure these predictions are bringing the heat, shall we?

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I always enjoy when the Bold Predictions series rolls out here. It’s fun seeing my colleagues go out on a limb, and it’s even more fun tossing my hat in the ring with bold predictions of my own. Below, you’ll find five bold hitting predictions. Initially, this piece was set to include all of my bold predictions. However, it began getting lengthy quickly, so I’ve opted to split up my hitter predictions and pitcher predictions. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s Bold Prediction time!! After a 2-for-10 performance last year (and even that took some favorable grading), I’m ready to go off this year and bat at least .500! The funny thing is I’d love to repeat some of mine last year despite missing on them in 2017. Delino DeShields made mine last year and now he’s a draft darling surging up the board. I like Blake Treinen to be a strong closer and could still see that Carlos Martinez sub-2.50 ERA season! But don’t worry, I have 10 fresh Bold Predictions ready for you – five hitters and five pitchers.

Let’s do this! You’ll never guess who’s leading off?

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After an crushing last season’s BOLD predictions, it’s time to regress with some outlandish claims focusing on their average draft position (ADP).

#1 Dinelson Lamet will end the season as a top-30 pitcher.

Lamet has two factors pointing him having a great 2018 season. First, he posted a 10.9 K/9 in 114 major league innings. Additionally, he made 29 starts between Triple-A and the majors. If he has just a little bit of batted ball luck (and hopefully develop a third pitch), his production will soar.

#2 Gregory Bird will outproduce Aaron Judge.

I’m both high on Bird and low on Judge. With Bird, he’s finally healthy and will join Judge in the middle of the Yankees lineup. I don’t believe in Judge’s high BABIP and batting average. I think both will sink quite a bit dragging down both is RBI and Runs totals.

#3 Adrian Beltre will outperform his ADP (158) and be a top-75 player.

I have no idea how Beltre is going in the so late in drafts. While dealing with injuries last season, he hit 17 HR with a .312 AVG in 389 PA. I’d rather have Beltre over Shaw who is going around pick 90. I’ll wait four to five rounds and own Beltre.

#4 Luis Severino will outproduce all but one of the top-4 starters. Read the rest of this entry »