Jeff Zimmerman’s 2017 Bold Predictions – A Review

It’s that time when I go back through and see how my preseason BOLD predictions held up. Usually, this process is humbling but after I reviewed them mid-season, I knew I may be in for a career year.

Note: For all the rankings, I used ESPN.com’s Player Rater.

BOLD prediction #1: Trea Turner will perform 20 spots worse than his ADP suggests.

I probably should count this one as a miss but with the normally low BOLD prediction success rate, I’ll take the win. He was going 10th overall and he came in on the player rater at #33.

If Turner had not sustained a broken wrist, he would have just kept stealing bases and raising his value. If he’s a threat to steal at least 40 bases and hit for some power, he’s going to continue to go early in drafts.

1 for 1 (batting 1.000)

BOLD prediction #2: Giancarlo Stanton will hit 50 home runs.

I guess I was off by almost 10 home runs. The lack of playing time has kept his previous season home runs down. With there being no evidence for injury-prone hitters, he just needed a healthy season (159 games) to reach his potential.

2 for 2 (batting 1.000)

BOLD prediction #3: Kyle Seager will outperform his brother Corey.

Truthfully, both stunk it up this season but Corey did pull ahead. Corey was ranked 61st while Kyle came in as the 116th. Kyle put up a fight by hitting five more home runs and only have two fewer Run+RBI. Neither stole much (four vs two). It came down to batting average where Kyle hit .249 and Corey hit .295.

Kyle’s batting average was dragged down by a career-low .262 BABIP. One possible cause for the drop is him selling out for home runs (10% point increase in his flyball rate). He may have adjusted his swing too much for flyballs and killed his batting average. I’m going to revisit this topic soon.

2 for 3 (batting .666)

BOLD prediction #4: Justin Turner (128th) and Odubel Herrera (120th) will outperform their ADP be 30 spots.

I was hoping these non-prospects would be top 100 players because owners didn’t believe in their talent. Turner did his job by coming in at 83rd overall.

Herrera didn’t even come close to my estimate (113th). He value was destroyed with his stolen bases getting cut in third (25 to 8). I’m still targeting non-prospects as owners seem slow to warm up to them.

2.5 for 4 (batting .625)

BOLD prediction #5: Clayton Kershaw will produce his best season ever.

In the mid-season report I stated:

It’s going to be close. He’s at 15 Wins and a nice 2.07 ERA. He may not get to the 301 strikeouts of 2015 but he will easily surpass the 15 Wins total from that year. But Kershaw could slump or get hurt.

He took the hurt route. Throwing 175 innings and getting only 202 strikeouts isn’t going to be the best for Kershaw.

Injury concerns will now be a part of Kershaw’s profile. I polled my Twitter followers and found most people expect his starts to be in the high 20’s.

How many starts should fantasy owners expect from Clayton Kershaw in 2018?

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) September 23, 2017

I’m not sure he deserves to be the first pitcher off the board with so few of starts.

2.5 for 5 (batting .500)

BOLD prediction #6: Chris Davis will be a top-25 fantasy producer.

I was completely off on this prediction. I believed an early season injury sapped his power in 2016 and he could bounce back in 2017. Nope. He got injured again and could never catch up.

I’m worried about the 31-year-old’s value going forward. While he posted a decent BABIP (.301), his 37% K% is nearing the unplayable levels. He’s swung and made contact at normal rates, it’s just pitchers aren’t afraid of him. They threw the ball in the strike zone at a 6-year high (44%). Besides Davis’s strikeout jump, his walk dropped with his BB/K at a 5-year-low (0.31). The only bounce back happening here is of the dead cat variety.

2.5 for 6 (batting .417)

BOLD prediction #7: Robbie Ray will be a top-12 fantasy pitcher.

Ray’s defense improved as his BABIP dropped from .352 to .267. Additionally, Ray developed a devastating curveball (18% SwStr%). All the points came together and he was 9th overall.

Many analysts pointed to Ray as the problem for the high BABIP but the Diamondbacks defense was historically bad. They could only improve. Two teams with high 2017 BABIPs are the Tigers and Mets who may see some of their pitchers improve if the defense improves.

3.5 for 7 (batting .500)

BOLD prediction #8: No Cubs starting pitcher will be in the top-20 starting pitchers at season’s end.

I looked the other end of the BABIP spectrum and bet against the Cubs posting an overall team BABIP of .255 (up to .285 in 2017). While their pitchers are good, I didn’t expect them to be great. Here is how they finished.

#25 Jake Arrieta
#34 Jose Quintana (sort of doesn’t count)
#50 Kyle Hendricks
#52 Jon Lester
#56 Mike Montgomery
#68 John Lackey

Again, good, not great pitchers.

4.5 for 8 (batting .563)

BOLD prediction #9: Rick Porcello will outproduce his 2016 season except for his Win total.

This prediction wasn’t close. While his strikeouts were similar (21% vs 20%), everything else was worse. He made some 2016 second-half changes I thought could stick. They couldn’t and he was unplayable.

4.5 for 9 (batting .500)

BOLD prediction #10: Jose Berrios pulls it together and is a top-50 starting pitcher.

While on the mound, Berrios was a pleasant surprise and came in at #41 which quite a bit higher than his 397 overall ADP. Some 2016 late season improvements helped him regain his control and helped him reach his potential.

5.5 for 10 (batting .550)

 

Over 50% correct. Insane. I’ll just sit and enjoy being generally right. It rarely happens.