Luis Castillo is one of the most exciting pitchers in this year’s pool. His 89-inning debut has vaulted him firmly into the top 100 picks and top 30 starters. Our good friends over at PitcherList.com have him slotted 20th on their board. I love Castillo, but are we being a little overzealous with the 25-year old righty?

There haven’t been a lot of guys putting up a 3.12 ERA/1.07 WHIP combo with an 18% K-BB rate in 90ish innings during their rookie season so finding comps wasn’t easy, but I came up with some thresholds and we’re going to look at what they did in their second season. It doesn’t necessarily mean we will figure out what Castillo is going to do by looking at these guys, but we will have some reference points and we’ll highlight one of most commonly used comps to zero on some potential results.

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Hey Justin Mason, this industry slow draft thing was a good idea! I’m of course referring to The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational aka TGFBI aka NFBC for industry nerds. The most beautiful thing about it? I can report on my internal thought process in real time. In a typical draft, everything happens too quickly. Any after-the-fact explanation feels like a self-congratulatory narrative.

With four hours per pick and 15 owners taking their sweet time*, I can very thoughtfully tinker and tailor my approach. Spying is an option too (you’ll see), but I haven’t found a role for soldiering. As I mentioned last Friday, the original plan was to take a contrarian approach. I’m not just trying to beat 14 other industry rivals, I want to win the whole shabam. Achieving ultimate victory requires out-drafting, out-managing, and out-waiver wiring 194 opponents. It’s a tall order. To this point, my roster isn’t feeling very contrary. Let’s explore.

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I recently had a trade discussion in an ottoneu league (this isn’t an ottoneu specific article, bear with me). Anyway, I was trying to sell a veteran outfielder and a top pitching prospect for Cody Bellinger. Their salaries were about equal. My sales pitch: the veteran projects for a comparable FGpts total to Bellinger. The prospect pays for the nine year age gap. The offer was firmly declined. My sales pitch was roundly poo-pooed.

Let’s see what you think.

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3/1/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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Logo designed discussed in the show can be found here: 78_AllStar

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The ADP movers over the past two weeks can generally be group into several specific categories. Others are off on an island. I’ll examine the outliers and place others into their obvious groups (full top 245 at the article’s end).

Billy Hamilton (60 to 62)

I’m not sure why Hamilton has fallen a bit as the draft season has moved on. One theory I can make up is that owners are drafting with a more balanced approach and they don’t need to reach for Hamilton. The problem with Hamilton is he is a complete sink on your team in every other category besides steals. I have him as the 61st ranked hitter so he’d be lower with pitchers added so I can understand the drop.

Justin Turner (85 to 83)

I don’t think he’s moved as much as everyone else around him started moving. The talent curve begins to flatten at this point and small value changes can lead to bigger jumps.

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Yes, I know that “sleepers” don’t exist in fantasy baseball as they used to with the Information Age uncovering every potential gem so that no one is truly hidden, but it’s still a term we use to connote an undervalued asset. For this exercise, I’m putting together a lineup with someone at every infield position and three outfielders going after pick 200 in the NFBC average draft position. ADP is coming from our projections page, by the way.

LINEUP

C: Yasmani Grandal | Dodgers, Pick 228 – Grandal is penciled in as the primary starter and yet he’s going a good bit later than his backup, Austin Barnes. I’m a big Barnes fan, but he’s now dealing with an elbow issue and sits on the short end of the platoon. Grandal is a batting average liability, but he’s clubbed 49 homers over the last two seasons and at this cost, there’s a chance he’s your second catcher.

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In a few days, the Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational will begin drafting. The invitational is the combination of 13 different 15-team leagues full of the industry’s best and brightest (and Howard Bender). We’ve been given our draft positions and I got the third pick. After Arizona installed the humidor and dinged Goldschmidt’s value, the pick has no easy options. Instead of focusing on the first-round pick, I’m going to dive into my second and third round options to hopefully make a better choice with the first one.

With any draft or auction in which my draft pick is known, I plan my first two to three picks. Beyond that point, the variables increase, plan is out the window, and owners need to target values and needs.

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This offseason, I decided to roll out this series as an extension of my own fantasy draft prep. By sifting through National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) draft data, I’ve gone position by position through average draft position (ADP) info to identify players who I believe my fellow fantasy owners are overrating or underrating. By doing so, I’m able to better identify potential sleepers, and get an idea for what price I’ll pay for them. So far, I’ve written posts on third basemen, shortstops and second basemen, and today I’ll take a stab at first base.

As you might have guessed from reading the headline above this article, today’s comparison involves Rockies rookie Ryan McMahon and Brewers veteran Eric Thames. I’ll lead off by saying that this one boggles my mind more than any of the other underrated/overrated pieces I’ve written this offseason.

Let’s take a quick look at where these two are being drafted:

Essentially, Thames is a 16th-round pick in 12-team standard leagues, and McMahon is a 30th rounder — or in other words, he’s basically being drafted as an NL-only guy. I wondered if these numbers might be changing as we get closer to the season, so I took a look at Yahoo, which has only even had their fantasy baseball site up for a little over week. However, it’s the same story there, where Thames is 86% owned, compared to just 9% for McMahon. My goal for today is to help close that gap.

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I’ve been prepping for two AL-only leagues, so the today’s thoughts only involve mainly AL hitters but can be extended to either league. While working on my evaluations here are some observations.

Create a plan for the injured X-factors

The two hitters who could carry a fantasy team, if healthy, are Michael Brantley and Miguel Cabrera. If (BIG IF) they get a full season of healthy plate appearances, I’d not be surprised if they were top-20 hitters. Owners aren’t showing a ton of faith since Cabrera’s ADP is at 95 and Brantley’s at 245.

No one knows for sure how they’ll perform so owners need to know before the draft where they feel they can gamble on rostering them. Owners need to make this decision ahead of time, not on the fly in a draft or auction. Come up with a plan you can live with and stick to it. Their evaluations can be adjusted as detailed reports become available from spring training on their health.

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We sometimes assume things based on a very small piece of information. Over the stagnant winter months, that assumption can crystallize into a certainty. This guy will break out. That guy will play every day. Then, Spring Training rolls around. The whims of managers – and injuries, mostly injuries – quickly lay waste to months of fantasy baseball dogma. No religion experiences as much upheaval as baseball.

Already, a few potential sleepers are seeing their value change.

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