The ADP movers over the past two weeks can generally be group into several specific categories. Others are off on an island. I’ll examine the outliers and place others into their obvious groups (full top 245 at the article’s end).

Billy Hamilton (60 to 62)

I’m not sure why Hamilton has fallen a bit as the draft season has moved on. One theory I can make up is that owners are drafting with a more balanced approach and they don’t need to reach for Hamilton. The problem with Hamilton is he is a complete sink on your team in every other category besides steals. I have him as the 61st ranked hitter so he’d be lower with pitchers added so I can understand the drop.

Justin Turner (85 to 83)

I don’t think he’s moved as much as everyone else around him started moving. The talent curve begins to flatten at this point and small value changes can lead to bigger jumps.

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Yes, I know that “sleepers” don’t exist in fantasy baseball as they used to with the Information Age uncovering every potential gem so that no one is truly hidden, but it’s still a term we use to connote an undervalued asset. For this exercise, I’m putting together a lineup with someone at every infield position and three outfielders going after pick 200 in the NFBC average draft position. ADP is coming from our projections page, by the way.

LINEUP

C: Yasmani Grandal | Dodgers, Pick 228 – Grandal is penciled in as the primary starter and yet he’s going a good bit later than his backup, Austin Barnes. I’m a big Barnes fan, but he’s now dealing with an elbow issue and sits on the short end of the platoon. Grandal is a batting average liability, but he’s clubbed 49 homers over the last two seasons and at this cost, there’s a chance he’s your second catcher.

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In a few days, the Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational will begin drafting. The invitational is the combination of 13 different 15-team leagues full of the industry’s best and brightest (and Howard Bender). We’ve been given our draft positions and I got the third pick. After Arizona installed the humidor and dinged Goldschmidt’s value, the pick has no easy options. Instead of focusing on the first-round pick, I’m going to dive into my second and third round options to hopefully make a better choice with the first one.

With any draft or auction in which my draft pick is known, I plan my first two to three picks. Beyond that point, the variables increase, plan is out the window, and owners need to target values and needs.

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This offseason, I decided to roll out this series as an extension of my own fantasy draft prep. By sifting through National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) draft data, I’ve gone position by position through average draft position (ADP) info to identify players who I believe my fellow fantasy owners are overrating or underrating. By doing so, I’m able to better identify potential sleepers, and get an idea for what price I’ll pay for them. So far, I’ve written posts on third basemen, shortstops and second basemen, and today I’ll take a stab at first base.

As you might have guessed from reading the headline above this article, today’s comparison involves Rockies rookie Ryan McMahon and Brewers veteran Eric Thames. I’ll lead off by saying that this one boggles my mind more than any of the other underrated/overrated pieces I’ve written this offseason.

Let’s take a quick look at where these two are being drafted:

Essentially, Thames is a 16th-round pick in 12-team standard leagues, and McMahon is a 30th rounder — or in other words, he’s basically being drafted as an NL-only guy. I wondered if these numbers might be changing as we get closer to the season, so I took a look at Yahoo, which has only even had their fantasy baseball site up for a little over week. However, it’s the same story there, where Thames is 86% owned, compared to just 9% for McMahon. My goal for today is to help close that gap.

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I’ve been prepping for two AL-only leagues, so the today’s thoughts only involve mainly AL hitters but can be extended to either league. While working on my evaluations here are some observations.

Create a plan for the injured X-factors

The two hitters who could carry a fantasy team, if healthy, are Michael Brantley and Miguel Cabrera. If (BIG IF) they get a full season of healthy plate appearances, I’d not be surprised if they were top-20 hitters. Owners aren’t showing a ton of faith since Cabrera’s ADP is at 95 and Brantley’s at 245.

No one knows for sure how they’ll perform so owners need to know before the draft where they feel they can gamble on rostering them. Owners need to make this decision ahead of time, not on the fly in a draft or auction. Come up with a plan you can live with and stick to it. Their evaluations can be adjusted as detailed reports become available from spring training on their health.

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We sometimes assume things based on a very small piece of information. Over the stagnant winter months, that assumption can crystallize into a certainty. This guy will break out. That guy will play every day. Then, Spring Training rolls around. The whims of managers – and injuries, mostly injuries – quickly lay waste to months of fantasy baseball dogma. No religion experiences as much upheaval as baseball.

Already, a few potential sleepers are seeing their value change.

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The introductory section below is going to be similar to previous LABR recaps since little has changed and there’s no sense in rewording things.

The clearest sign of a new baseball season is the annual super early LABR Mixed draft. Last Tuesday, 15 of us fantasy nerds virtually gathered to speculate where the swath of still-free agents will sign and hope our early picks don’t suffer spring training injuries. Though I’m certainly not a fan of February drafts, at least it provides me the needed motivation to finish my first run of Pod Projections that drive my player values. Without the forecasts and valuation spreadsheet, I’d be drafting blind, and that’s no blueprint for a Yoo-hoo shower.

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Since NFBC ADP (average draft position) data has been available here at FanGraphs, I’ve kept the weekly values. Here are some biggest ADP movers over the past three weeks who started or ended up in the top-250 picks.

A note to remember is that a move at the top is more important in the steep section of the talent curve instead of later with the talent levels off.

Justin Verlander +2 (37th to 40th)
Zack Greinke +2 (44th to 46th)
Robbie Ray +3 (44th to 47th)
Yu Darvish +2 (50th to 52nd)

The second-tier starting pitchers are dropping in ADP. This drop is not surprising as my podcast mate, Rob Silver has noticed this spending trend away from starters in previous seasons.

I usually find it closer to 68/32 or 69/31 by March.

— Rob Silver (@RobSilver) January 25, 2018

I don’t see either of these pitchers as dropping in value, just the overall hitter-pitcher mix.

Alex Bregman -2 (34th to 32nd)

Owners are liking Bregman more and more. I think he’ll eventually be going in the second round regularly as owner have a “fear of missing out” with him

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The lights-out middle reliever is making a huge inroad as being a valuable fantasy asset. Some are throwing nearly 100 innings and with 10 K/9 or better. Along with their great rate stats, they are a cheap option instead of many back-of-the-rotation arms. Al Melchior did a great job highlighting some of these arms this past week. I’m going to take his list and find out when they are going in NFBC drafts and compare them to the starters going around them to find any possible values.

One note to remember is that NFBC drafts are 15-team leagues with 9 pitchers per team with a decent number of pitchers on the bench for streaming. My plan is to acquire one of these non-closing studs and use him as a “streamer” when one of my pitchers has a tough matchup (e.g. road game at Colorado).

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2/12/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Producer/Co-Host
• @pitcherlist – Guest (& RG Contributor!) Nick Pollack

During the show, we discussed how their Twitter handle was ThePitcherList while the website was just Pitcherlist.com and literally after we recorded Nick found out that they finally got PitcherList for their Twitter handle so that’s pretty cool! But I wanted to say something in case folks were confused while listening.

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