Largest Changes in NFBC ADP
Since NFBC ADP (average draft position) data has been available here at FanGraphs, I’ve kept the weekly values. Here are some biggest ADP movers over the past three weeks who started or ended up in the top-250 picks.
A note to remember is that a move at the top is more important in the steep section of the talent curve instead of later with the talent levels off.
Justin Verlander +2 (37th to 40th)
Zack Greinke +2 (44th to 46th)
Robbie Ray +3 (44th to 47th)
Yu Darvish +2 (50th to 52nd)
The second-tier starting pitchers are dropping in ADP. This drop is not surprising as my podcast mate, Rob Silver has noticed this spending trend away from starters in previous seasons.
I usually find it closer to 68/32 or 69/31 by March.
— Rob Silver (@RobSilver) January 25, 2018
I don’t see either of these pitchers as dropping in value, just the overall hitter-pitcher mix.
Alex Bregman -2 (34th to 32nd)
Owners are liking Bregman more and more. I think he’ll eventually be going in the second round regularly as owner have a “fear of missing out” with him
Jose Abreu -2 (44th to 42nd)
Owners were too down on him to start the draft season. He’s now getting valued closer to his actual value.
Billy Hamilton +4 (57th to 61st)
This one-trick pony seems to be falling out of favor a bit. He’s such a tough player to own since he provides nothing in four categories.
Christian Yelich -6 (71st to 65th)
Lorenzo Cain -4 (100th to 96th)
Domingo Santana +6 (73rd to 79th)
The new Brewers outfield has several guys on the move.
Gerrit Cole -7 (94th to 87th)
Brad Peacock +30 (199th to 229th)
Going to the Astros raises Cole’s value and kills Peacock’s.
Miguel Sano +7 (94th to 101st)
Run-ins with the law are bad.
Luis Castillo -5 (108th to 103rd)
The Castillo hype trade is going full steam. He’s a talented pitcher but he performed for only a partial season. I’d gladly take several pitchers going after him like Masahiro Tanaka or Alex Wood.
Alex Wood +7 (100th to 107th)
While the Castillo training is going full steam ahead, Alex Wood’s is slowing down. I’m not sure why its happening now. I wonder if owners are not taking 2017 into account as much.
Mike Moustakas +10 (106th to 116th)
Greg Holland +11 (126h to 137th)
Not signing has seen their stock fall by almost a round.
Ronald Acuna -11 (137th to 126th)
I can’t buy in at this price but some owners are. It just takes one person to push up his debut time to the season’s start to place him this high.
Ozzie Albies 10 (151st to 140th)
I think the current price for Albies is fine. He’ll be a full-time starter with huge stolen base potential
Evan Gattis -11 (163rd to 152nd)
Gattis’s possible plate appearances are starting to sink in and he’s almost being taken a round earlier.
Michael Conforto +16 (162rd to 178th)
Ervin Santana +10 (181st to 191st)
Their injuries are understandably scaring owners off.
Andrelton Simmons +11 (185th to 196th)
Another player changing without a noticeable cause. The higher ADP might be from owners not taking as much stock in his 2017 performance.
Brandon Morrow -26 (237th to 210th)
Brad Brach -16 (239th to 223rd)
Fernando Rodney -10 (249th to 239th)
Being named a team’s closer will always increase a reliever’s value.
David Dahl -10 (253rd to 243rd)
Owners are starting to remember Dahl exists. Last season his average ADP was 126th. I don’t expect him to get back to that level but he could keep moving up.
Aaron Alherr +15 (242nd to 257th)
The Carlos Santana sign really dropped his value … as it should.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Are Greg Holland’s ADPs transposed: +11 (137th to 126th)?
I just wonder if Billy Hamilton was being drafted higher early based on presumptive trade-hype, and now that he looks like he’s staying put he’s settling back down.
I have never yet had a draft since Hamilton debuted where he last part the 50th pick.
Does anyone have a good snake draft round to auction value data set? Our league is considering moving to auction, and one of the biggest questions is how convert out keeper values from rounds to dollars
try using the fangraphs auction value calculator and setting it for your league stats.
https://www.fangraphs.com/auctiontool.aspx
might take some manipulation, but it’s a place to start!
Is there a secret to viewing the current NFBC ADPs? When I visit http://hosted.stats.com/mlb/front.asp, I still see Miguel Cabrera listed with a rank of 16.
https://playnfbc.sportshubtech.com/adp
We have them here on the Auction Calculator or projection pages
Thanks, Jeff. Has Thames’ value moving due to recent team acquisitions?
Both at 187
How much does it cost to join one of these NFBC leagues? And judging from the draft selections, it appears they’re cats leagues. Any points leagues in the NFBC? I prefer them.
NFBC is classic 5×5 roto. It’s $1,600 for the Main Event, but there are lower priced ($50 or $150) 50 round draft and hold leagues doing drafts right now (which is where the ADP data comes from).
I may be biased, as I’ve been playing in the NFBC since 2006, but there is likely no better challenge in fantasy baseball than competing in the NFBC.
Thanks for the info! I don’t have the money for the Main Event (semi-retired) but I might pony up $50 for the opportunity to play in a good redraft league.
I’m in three keeper leagues. I got tired of ESPN and Yahoo redraft leagues where half of the owners disappeared after mid-July.
Each NFBC draft and hold league has 15 teams. If you go into a $150 entry fee league, your team will also automatically compete for the Overall Draft Champions prize against over 1,300+ other teams. Takes it to another level.
If you’d prefer to have FAAB throughout the season, as opposed to draft 50 and that’s your team for the whole year, the NFBC also has satellite leagues that start at $150. Putting some cash up means owners tend to be more engaged for longer than the more random public leagues. Good luck!
Double that statement. NFBC is the best, and most organized by a mile. Free to join and there are tons of draft leagues at different price points, and numerous auction leagues (both in person if you want to go to New York or Vegas), and they are at various price points as well.
If we assume Acuna does come up in April, wouldn’t that draft position be way too low? Guys who can put up .340/25/50/100/100 don’t grow on trees.
Acuna will never put up those numbers, not as a rookie. He’ll never hit .340 in his entire career. I get that he excites you, but he is not Mickey Mantle in his prime.
Any idea what will happen next week for Cron and Odorizzi’s ADP?
Jeff, I have participated with NFBC since they began and they are a great operation. One question.. I know that I used to try and determine what the ADPs had been for the most recent week by taking the prior week’s ADP and the current week’s (which was shown on a cumulative basis and included all of the prior auctions) and then using a mathematical formula to compute what the ADPs had been for the most recent week. I also know that NFBC indicated they would be publishing ADPs for given time intervals for their league members (i.e. you could see what the ADPs had been ONLY for the period from Mar. 1 to Mar. 15 etc.) Is the Fangraphs data the “cumulative” ADP for ALL auctions as of a given date or only for the most recent period (which is what you really want in order to see actual movements, which tend to be larger in a recent period only, than from the “cumulative” to a prior date compared to a “cumulative” current date?
This is great, love the article. That’s all, just wanted to say thanks for putting it together.
Actually, will you be doing this again? If so, how often do you think? Thanks again!