The All-Sleeper Lineup

Yes, I know that “sleepers” don’t exist in fantasy baseball as they used to with the Information Age uncovering every potential gem so that no one is truly hidden, but it’s still a term we use to connote an undervalued asset. For this exercise, I’m putting together a lineup with someone at every infield position and three outfielders going after pick 200 in the NFBC average draft position. ADP is coming from our projections page, by the way.

LINEUP

C: Yasmani Grandal | Dodgers, Pick 228 – Grandal is penciled in as the primary starter and yet he’s going a good bit later than his backup, Austin Barnes. I’m a big Barnes fan, but he’s now dealing with an elbow issue and sits on the short end of the platoon. Grandal is a batting average liability, but he’s clubbed 49 homers over the last two seasons and at this cost, there’s a chance he’s your second catcher.

1B: Yonder Alonso | Indians, Pick 296 – Alonso hit a career-high 28 homers last year and while just eight came in the second half, that would still be the second-highest total of his career. He heads to Cleveland, which will be the best park he’s played in by far with the 5th-highest HR park factor (including ties) and in the best lineup he’s had around him. Even if he’s more of an 18-20 HR guy than the 28 we saw last year, that will still play in your corner infield or utility slot, but if he maintains a 40%+ flyball rate all year then we could see 30+ HRs.

2B: Cesar Hernandez | Phillies, Pick 259 – For a guy with a .294 AVG and .372 OBP over 1199 PA the last two years, he sure is overlooked. He has also swiped 15+ bases each of the last three years and should bat leadoff in a burgeoning lineup that added Carlos Santana and gets a full year of Rhys Hoskins. Hell, I’m part of the “underrating Hernandez” problem by slotting him just 21st among 2B in my rankings, but he’ll move up in my March update.

3B: Matt Chapman | Athletics, Pick 285 – Chapman popped 14 HR in his 84-game debut, but he was overshadowed by the Matt on the other corner, Olson, who hit 24 in just 59 games. Chapman’s 28% strikeout rate is in line with his minor league work (27%) and makes him a batting average liability, but there’s usually at least one flaw with players down here past pick 250. What I really like about him is that his fantastic defense will keep him on the field even through the inevitable slumps. He hit 35 HR with 89 RBI per 600 PA in the minors.

SS: Brandon Crawford | Giants, Pick 334 – Those of you who read this piece before 10 PM central and are now re-visiting it are seeing that Crawford has been added because I forgot to put the SS initially. B Craw’s 2015 still stands out as an obvious career year and I’m not sure that he’ll get back to that level, but I still like him as an SS punt or super-cheap MI. His brilliance at short ensures that he’s in the lineup every single day and that volume is a boon in the 300s. If he can put together another double-digit HR/FB rate, then we could see a high-teens/low-20s HR output again, but even if he just does his mid-teens homers, 80 RBIs, 65 runs, and .255 AVG, that works for the cost.

OF1: Delino DeShields | Rangers, Pick 212 – I wrote The Dentist up in my Post Hype Prospects piece back in the fall and in that I pointed out how he was in my Bold Predictions piece in the spring, so needless to say I’ve been trying to will a DeShields breakout into existence for a while now. He still had a $20 season so it’s not like he’s coming from nothing, but I still see more, even if it’s just added volume to the skills we saw in 2017. Since I’ve repeated DeShields here, I’ll spare you some of my other favorites like Aaron Hicks, Willie Calhoun, and Teoscar Hernandez (all written up here) and use the next two spots for some new names.

OF2: Carlos Gomez | Rays, Pick 349 – Gomez hasn’t played more than 115 games in any of the last three seasons, but that’s more than built into the price. He’s averaged 14 HR and 16 SB in that time as a perfectly solid OF4. At 32 years old, it’s not out of bounds to suggest he could stay healthy for the season or at least a healthier than his last three (~135 games) and then we’re talking 20/20 again.

Health is still the most unpredictable aspect of fantasy baseball so as long as you’re getting the adequate discount for an injured player, it’s worth betting on them in hopes of spiking the 600 PA dream season (Gomez has only done it twice). He’ll be given as much playing time as his body can handle and perhaps shifting to rightfield will be easier on him than center, though he’s also going to turf for 81 games so maybe that’s a cancel out. At any rate, status quo is more than worth it at this cost and there’s real upside with health.

OF3: Derek Fisher | Astros, Pick 424 – The Astros speedy OF prospect is essentially free as there appears to be no room at the inn for him, but there’s plenty of age on the roster that could create an opportunity sooner than later. First off, he’s being given a real chance to outright win the leftfield job, but even if that doesn’t happen, then there’s a chance that 29-year old Marwin Gonzalez relinquishes it if his 2017 breakout gains don’t maintain.

Perhaps 34-year old first baseman Yulieski Gurriel doesn’t hold up and brings Gonzalez back into the infield, opening left up for Fisher. Maybe 32-year old Evan Gattis struggles and moving some DH at-bats to the plates of Gonzalez and/or Gurriel. Josh Reddick (31 y/o) isn’t exactly the paragon of health himself with seven DL stints since 2013 so that’s yet another potential path for Fisher.

Remember, Cody Bellinger was ignored in many drafts because he was blocked off and we saw how that went. Fisher isn’t the same level of prospect, but he’s also not as firmly blocked as Belly appeared to be at the time, either. Fisher is remarkably fast and was a 20 HR/30 SB bat per 600 PA in the minors. He could be a huge asset if he finds regular time. He makes for a great reserve pick and perhaps more if he shows out in spring.