NFBC ADP Movers & Shakers

by
March 1, 2018

The ADP movers over the past two weeks can generally be group into several specific categories. Others are off on an island. I’ll examine the outliers and place others into their obvious groups (full top 245 at the article’s end).

Billy Hamilton (60 to 62)

I’m not sure why Hamilton has fallen a bit as the draft season has moved on. One theory I can make up is that owners are drafting with a more balanced approach and they don’t need to reach for Hamilton. The problem with Hamilton is he is a complete sink on your team in every other category besides steals. I have him as the 61st ranked hitter so he’d be lower with pitchers added so I can understand the drop.

Justin Turner (85 to 83)

I don’t think he’s moved as much as everyone else around him started moving. The talent curve begins to flatten at this point and small value changes can lead to bigger jumps.

Masahiro Tanaka (104 to 101)

This move is a major market correction. Tanaka’s injury history limits his value but everyone else being taken around him has their own issues.  I will take his 12 Wins, 170 K’s and a decent WHIP at this point. in the draft

Alex Wood (105 to 111)

While Tanaka’s moving up, Wood is moving down. I’m at a loss on the decline besides a bunch of players moved up around him (Tanaka, Realmuto, Castillo, Odor).

David Price (121 to 116)

His ADP was just getting hammered too much for his injury. It’s still a concern but Price reports his elbow is 100% healthy. He’s been falling in early drafts and I already have a few shares of him.

Ronald Acuna (128 to 122)

There seems to be a massive push for owners to not miss out of this next great rookie. Previously, I’ve written my opinion on Acuna and I’ll stick with it.

Ozzie Albies (142 to 136)

He’s just moving up to where he belongs with a projected at .265 AVG, 12 HR, and 21 steals.

And now the categories …

Top players aren’t moving

  • Only four of the top 37 saw their ADP change by more than 0.5 over the past 2 weeks

Humidor going to Arizona. Finished drafts will be just taking this news into account so he may drop further.

Pitchers ADP dropping

Catchers moving up

Players signing or being traded

Injuries (and the law)

New Closers

Still Free agents

Tier-2 closers moving up

NFBC ADP Movers For Last Two Weeks
Rank Name Early Feb ADP Late Feb ADP Diff
1 Mike Trout 1 1 0
2 Jose Altuve 2 2 0
3 Paul Goldschmidt 4 5 1
4 Trea Turner 5 5 0
5 Nolan Arenado 5 5 0
6 Clayton Kershaw 7 8 1
7 Charlie Blackmon 8 8 0
8 Bryce Harper 8 8 0
9 Mookie Betts 9 8 0
10 Giancarlo Stanton 9 9 0
11 Max Scherzer 11 11 0
12 Chris Sale 13 13 0
13 Corey Kluber 14 14 1
14 Carlos Correa 14 14 0
15 Kris Bryant 15 15 0
16 Aaron Judge 18 18 0
17 Joey Votto 19 19 0
18 Manny Machado 19 18 0
19 Jose Ramirez 19 19 0
20 Gary Sanchez 21 20 -1
21 Francisco Lindor 21 21 0
22 Freddie Freeman 22 22 0
23 Cody Bellinger 24 24 0
24 Anthony Rizzo 25 25 0
25 J.D. Martinez 25 25 0
26 Stephen Strasburg 25 26 1
27 Madison Bumgarner 26 26 0
28 Dee Gordon 28 28 0
29 Josh Donaldson 29 29 0
30 George Springer 31 31 0
31 Alex Bregman 33 32 0
32 Luis Severino 33 33 0
33 Noah Syndergaard 34 34 0
34 Jacob deGrom 35 35 0
35 Carlos Carrasco 36 36 0
36 Kenley Jansen 37 37 0
37 Brian Dozier 38 38 0
38 Justin Verlander 39 41 2
39 Corey Seager 39 39 0
40 Jose Abreu 42 42 -1
41 Andrew Benintendi 42 42 -1
42 Craig Kimbrel 45 45 0
43 Zack Greinke 46 47 1
44 Robbie Ray 47 48 1
45 Justin Upton 47 48 1
46 Marcell Ozuna 48 48 0
47 Starling Marte 50 51 1
48 Rhys Hoskins 51 50 -1
49 Yu Darvish 51 52 0
50 Chris Archer 52 52 0
51 Byron Buxton 53 53 0
52 Willson Contreras 53 52 -1
53 Carlos Martinez 54 53 0
54 Nelson Cruz 55 56 1
55 Edwin Encarnacion 56 56 0
56 Elvis Andrus 58 58 1
57 Anthony Rendon 58 58 0
58 Buster Posey 59 58 -1
59 Tommy Pham 60 59 -1
60 Billy Hamilton 60 62 2
61 Corey Knebel 62 63 1
62 Jonathan Schoop 63 64 0
63 A.J. Pollock 63 64 0
64 Aroldis Chapman 64 65 1
65 Christian Yelich 66 59 -8
66 Aaron Nola 67 66 -1
67 Daniel Murphy 68 69 2
68 Eric Hosmer 70 73 4
69 Khris Davis 70 70 0
70 Wil Myers 70 69 -2
71 Whit Merrifield 72 73 1
72 Shohei Ohtani 73 73 0
73 Jose Quintana 75 73 -1
74 James Paxton 77 77 0
75 Dallas Keuchel 77 78 1
76 Domingo Santana 78 83 5
77 Jean Segura 78 77 0
78 Roberto Osuna 78 78 0
79 Robinson Cano 83 83 0
80 Justin Turner 85 83 -2
81 Andrew McCutchen 85 87 2
82 Xander Bogaerts 86 85 -1
83 Gerrit Cole 88 85 -4
84 Edwin Diaz 90 89 -1
85 Felipe Rivero 90 89 -1
86 Chris Taylor 92 91 -1
87 Miguel Cabrera 93 95 2
88 Jake Arrieta 95 97 3
89 Travis Shaw 95 94 -1
90 Yoenis Cespedes 96 94 -2
91 Lorenzo Cain 98 92 -5
92 Ken Giles 98 96 -1
93 Salvador Perez 98 98 0
94 Miguel Sano 100 106 6
95 Cody Allen 101 99 -2
96 Raisel Iglesias 102 101 -1
97 Javier Baez 103 101 -1
98 Nick Castellanos 103 101 -2
99 Masahiro Tanaka 104 101 -2
100 Wade Davis 104 106 3
101 J.T. Realmuto 104 102 -2
102 Luis Castillo 104 101 -3
103 Alex Wood 105 111 5
104 Rougned Odor 109 107 -3
105 Jose Berrios 109 108 -1
106 Luke Weaver 110 110 0
107 Ryan Braun 111 113 2
108 Yasiel Puig 112 111 -1
109 Didi Gregorius 112 113 1
110 Ian Desmond 114 113 -1
111 Mike Moustakas 114 120 6
112 Joey Gallo 114 115 0
113 Brad Hand 115 113 -3
114 Marwin Gonzalez 116 115 -1
115 Trevor Story 117 119 2
116 Kyle Hendricks 117 117 0
117 Jake Lamb 118 120 2
118 Jon Lester 119 119 1
119 Eddie Rosario 119 120 2
120 Alex Colome 119 121 2
121 Ender Inciarte 120 120 0
122 David Price 121 116 -5
123 Rich Hill 122 123 1
124 Matt Olson 122 126 4
125 Marcus Stroman 125 127 1
126 Rafael Devers 127 123 -3
127 Ryan Zimmerman 128 133 5
128 Ronald Acuna 128 122 -6
129 DJ LeMahieu 130 131 1
130 Eduardo Nunez 131 130 -1
131 Greg Holland 133 142 9
132 Sean Doolittle 133 133 0
133 Zack Godley 133 129 -4
134 Yoan Moncada 133 132 -1
135 Kyle Seager 136 138 1
136 Jeff Samardzija 138 138 0
137 Ian Happ 139 138 -2
138 Ozzie Albies 142 136 -7
139 Sonny Gray 144 143 -1
140 Hector Neris 144 144 0
141 Gio Gonzalez 145 149 4
142 Trevor Bauer 145 144 -1
143 Adam Jones 146 146 0
144 Manny Margot 149 145 -3
145 Yadier Molina 149 148 -1
146 Justin Smoak 149 151 2
147 Paul DeJong 150 149 -1
148 Arodys Vizcaino 151 152 0
149 Johnny Cueto 151 153 2
150 Greg Bird 152 152 -1
151 Lance McCullers 154 149 -4
152 Evan Gattis 154 146 -8
153 Adam Eaton 155 152 -2
154 Trey Mancini 156 153 -2
155 Kevin Kiermaier 157 158 1
156 Adrian Beltre 159 159 0
157 Nomar Mazara 159 156 -3
158 Gregory Polanco 162 158 -4
159 Mike Zunino 162 159 -3
160 Jay Bruce 163 162 -1
161 Wilson Ramos 164 161 -3
162 Jon Gray 167 165 -2
163 Danny Salazar 170 172 1
164 Chase Anderson 171 171 0
165 Carlos Santana 171 171 0
166 Adam Duvall 172 173 1
167 Welington Castillo 172 170 -3
168 Charlie Morton 174 174 0
169 Michael Conforto 175 189 14
170 Mark Melancon 176 176 0
171 Jeurys Familia 178 180 2
172 Danny Duffy 178 183 4
173 Brett Gardner 181 181 0
174 Josh Bell 181 184 3
175 Jonathan Lucroy 181 187 6
176 Kyle Schwarber 182 178 -4
177 Garrett Richards 182 179 -3
178 Matt Carpenter 183 180 -3
179 Drew Pomeranz 183 183 0
180 Steven Souza Jr. 183 185 2
181 Austin Barnes 186 184 -2
182 Jonathan Villar 187 182 -5
183 Eric Thames 187 191 4
184 Ervin Santana 189 205 16
185 Orlando Arcia 189 186 -3
186 Archie Bradley 190 189 -1
187 Ian Kinsler 190 189 -2
188 Michael Fulmer 191 191 0
189 Ryon Healy 192 201 9
190 Eugenio Suarez 192 193 1
191 Dylan Bundy 193 191 -2
192 Andrelton Simmons 193 201 8
193 Justin Bour 195 199 4
194 Avisail Garcia 196 200 5
195 Tim Anderson 197 198 1
196 Blake Treinen 197 192 -6
197 Jameson Taillon 198 194 -4
198 Evan Longoria 199 200 1
199 Kenta Maeda 201 202 1
200 Scooter Gennett 201 204 3
201 Jose Peraza 202 204 2
202 Bradley Zimmer 203 200 -3
203 Jorge Polanco 204 204 0
204 Kevin Gausman 206 203 -3
205 Kelvin Herrera 206 202 -3
206 Andrew Miller 208 208 0
207 Yulieski Gurriel 209 210 1
208 Mitch Haniger 213 213 0
209 Odubel Herrera 213 213 0
210 Blake Parker 215 216 0
211 Dinelson Lamet 215 211 -5
212 Brian McCann 216 214 -1
213 Brandon Morrow 216 197 -19
214 Corey Dickerson 216 220 4
215 Blake Snell 217 215 -2
216 Mike Clevinger 218 216 -2
217 Delino DeShields 219 213 -6
218 Aaron Sanchez 220 217 -3
219 Michael Taylor 220 223 2
220 Lance Lynn 220 225 4
221 Taijuan Walker 222 218 -4
222 Alex Cobb 222 225 3
223 Brad Peacock 223 238 15
224 Zack Cozart 225 223 -2
225 Brad Brach 227 216 -11
226 Yasmani Grandal 227 228 1
227 Lucas Giolito 228 233 5
228 Chris Owings 229 229 -1
229 Amed Rosario 230 235 4
230 Marcus Semien 232 231 -2
231 Cole Hamels 234 236 2
232 Maikel Franco 235 235 0
233 Aaron Hicks 235 232 -3
234 Michael Wacha 237 233 -4
235 Rick Porcello 238 240 2
236 Jacob Faria 238 235 -3
237 Julio Teheran 239 241 2
238 Patrick Corbin 240 237 -4
239 Fernando Rodney 241 236 -4
240 David Dahl 243 236 -7
241 Shane Greene 244 241 -3
242 Chris Davis 247 247 0
243 Michael Brantley 247 245 -2
244 Mark Trumbo 249 252 2
245 Jorge Alfaro 251 246 -5





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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jpgmember
6 years ago

“The problem with Hamilton is he is a complete sink on your team in every other category besides steals.”

I don’t why this drives me was crazy as it does but I hear some variation of this statement all the time from writers and it’s just not true. He had 85 R last year which was good for 21st among outfielders and 47th overall tied with Corey Seager, Chris Taylor, Justin Smoak and Joey Gallo . In 2016, he had 69 R in 119 games so he was at a pretty similar pace over full season.

1
Heathcliff Slocumb
6 years ago
Reply to  jpg

To illustrate how putrid he is in some formats, we use a 7×7 that includes OBP and SLG. So, yes, he does score runs but when he’s crushing you in 5 categories, it makes the 2 categories he’s accumulating stats in just not worth the headache. He was the 84th ranked OF in this league, good for 469 overall. Generally speaking, any additional categories on top of the usual 5 only serve to minimize his value.

2
noeckerrmember
6 years ago
Reply to  jpg

Does anyone think this is the year we have to start being concerned about Hamilton’s playing time? Obviously the defense is elite but I at least have a bad feeling about his position atop the batting order…

0