Middle Reliever ADP Tiers

The lights-out middle reliever is making a huge inroad as being a valuable fantasy asset. Some are throwing nearly 100 innings and with 10 K/9 or better. Along with their great rate stats, they are a cheap option instead of many back-of-the-rotation arms. Al Melchior did a great job highlighting some of these arms this past week. I’m going to take his list and find out when they are going in NFBC drafts and compare them to the starters going around them to find any possible values.

One note to remember is that NFBC drafts are 15-team leagues with 9 pitchers per team with a decent number of pitchers on the bench for streaming. My plan is to acquire one of these non-closing studs and use him as a “streamer” when one of my pitchers has a tough matchup (e.g. road game at Colorado).

ADP Tier 1

Andrew Miller (208 ADP)

Similar ADP starters: Kenta Maeda, Kevin Gausmann, Dinelson Lamet, Blake Snell

I like Miller and he has the best chance to vulture a few Saves but I’d like to pick starters from this group. The upside of Lamet and Snell could make then a top-20 starter next season. I’ll pass on Miller at this price.

ADP Tier 2

Dellin Betances (277 ADP)
Chris Devenski (290 ADP)
David Robertson (290 ADP)
Chad Green (292 ADP)
Josh Hader (306 ADP)

Similar ADP starters: Jake Odorizzi, Tyler Chatwood, Luiz Gohara, Felix Hernandez

I’m higher on Luiz Gohara, but this range of starts is where I’d look at getting one, possibly two of these five depending on league depth.

The five are all around the same talent level so I don’t see a reason to be the first person to pick one up. I wouldn’t want to miss out either. Most owners used to be completely against middle relievers but more are willing to roster them. I don’t expect a single round run but an owner needs to be ready to pounce if they want to own one. In last night’s LABR auction, they went in the 19th, 19th, 21st, 22nd, and 23rd rounds. Possibly owners should be looking to buy once the 2nd or 3rd one gets picked.

ADP Tier 3

Mychal Givens (390 ADP)
Tyler Lyons (423 ADP)

Similar ADP starters: Jharel Cotton, Chad Kuhl, Anthony DeSclafani, Jose Urena

I don’t expect this pair to produce as well as the previous group but they are in-line for possible Saves. I see them as an endgame (reserve round) speculative plays.

ADP Tier 4

Yusmeiro Petit (465 ADP)

Similar ADP starters: Erasmo Ramirez, Kyle Gibson, Trevor Williams, Kendall Graveman

I’m not 100% sure of his role with the Athletics but he’s been an effective 2-inning reliever two of the past four seasons. Last year, he had a 10 K/9 with a 2.76 ERA in 91 IP. He’s a huge sleeper and if I miss out on the Hader-to-Betances group who didn’t go in the LABR draft.

Comparably, he could be better than Graveman. In Graveman’s 186 innings in 2016, he struck out 108 batters with 1.31 WHIP and 4.11 ERA. Last season, Petit had 101 strikeouts with a 0.95 WHIP and the 2.76 ERA. While Petit struggled in 2015 and 2016, an owner didn’t pay anything for him so he can be quickly released.

ADP Tier 5

Emilio Pagan (579 ADP)
Chris Rusin (627 ADP)
Adam Morgan (673 ADP)

Similar ADP starters: Nick Tropeano, Jeremy Hellickson, Wei-Yin Chen, Amir Garrett

These three belong to the Petit-isn’t-pitching-like-he-did-last-season-and-I-need-a-replacement group. There are likely several pitchers who will pop-up into this group but they are a nice starting point.