Archive for ADP

Second Base ADP Market Report: 2/21/21

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Auction Strategy Episode w/ Derek VanRiper

The Auction Strategy Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Derek VanRiper

Strategy Section

  • Auction Strategy
    • How Snake Drafts & Auctions differ in preparation.
    • Constructing Auction Values
      • Should you strictly hold to values?
      • What to use as a Hitter/Pitcher % split?
    • Generating Market Values
    • Nomination Strategies
      • General – It has to have a purpose.
      • Should you nominate players you want to buy, or players that you believe are overvalued?
      • The Economic Box
    • Bidding
      • Starting Bids
      • Jump Bids
      • Price Enforcing
      • The ‘9’s
    • Draft Inflation

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First Base ADP Market Report: 2/18/2021

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.

Read the rest of this entry »


Catcher ADP Market Report: 2/15/2021

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here. Read the rest of this entry »


Late-Round Evaluations: Gray, Weaver, Happ, and Tommy John Returnees

I’m continuing my attention on fringe starters. They are the starters who once the season starts, managers are going to have to make a quick decision on adding or dropping. These pitchers will be in play all season. I’m using NFBC’s ADP and starting at the bottom and selecting any starter drafted by half the teams.

Here is an evaluation of eight more starters. You can find the other editions here:

  • Part 1: Houck, Akin, Dunn, Schmidt
  • Part 2: Webb, Kremer, Stripling, Richards
  • Part 3: Quintana, Minor, Hill, Peralta, Morejon
  • Part 4: Margevicius, Chatwood, Plutko, Marquez, Lucchesi, Balazovic, Abbot
  • Part 5: Lodolo, Castellani, Bailey, Chirinos, Rodon, Cody, Cobb, Hamels
  • Part 6: Perez, Matz, Fiers, Porcello, Gray, Lynch
  • Part 7: McClanahan, Jefferies, Sandoval, Lester, Voth, Velasquez
  • Part 8: Barria, Loaisiga, Wood, DeSclafani, Freeland, Martin,
  • Part 9: Wood (again), Dobnak, Suter, Archer, Senzatela, Brault, Whitley, Kelly
  • Part 10: Wilson, Arihara, Wacha, Wright, Duffy, Mills
  • Part 11: Manning, Pivetta, Bubic, Shoemaker, Brubaker, Gomber
  • Part 12: Houser, Patiño, Gilbert, Ponce de Leon, Wainwright, Martinez
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Good Hitters with a Lower ADP

Jeff wrote a great piece earlier today on bad hitters who go early in drafts. These are often speedsters who can be huge pieces to a fantasy lineup or find themselves out of a job six weeks into the season. I figured I would do a quick follow up on the other ends of the spectrum and identify 10 players going later (150+ ADP) with OPS totals at .800 or better.

Good Hitters, Low ADP
PLAYER TM OPS ADP
Kyle Schwarber WAS 0.862 196
Rhys Hoskins PHI 0.853 170
Josh Donaldson MIN 0.837 196
Miguel Sanó MIN 0.835 195
Josh Bell WAS 0.832 161
Jesse Winker CIN 0.832 210
Justin Turner FA 0.831 227
Franmil Reyes CLE 0.822 160
Shohei Ohtani LAA 0.819 236
Rowdy Tellez TOR 0.814 249

Only one of these guys will do anything for your SB count, but that doesn’t mean they can’t be drafted with Jeff’s speedsters to offset their OPS struggles.

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Bad Hitters With an Early ADP

In 2019, I participated in AL LABR and struggled to stay out of the cellar. Coming out of the auction, I thought I would accumulate too many stolen bases but could trade one of Mallex Smith or Dee Strange-Gordon. I ran into the simple problem, they played themselves out of their jobs. From that point forward, I told myself “I will no longer rely on sh##ty baseball players”. Talent declines during a draft, but I don’t want a core piece of any team demoted to the bench or the minors. I’m going to examine a few hitters drafted in the first 10 rounds and fall into this playing time trap.

Looking back at Smith and Gordon, I should have had an inkling that they’d disappoint. Going into the season, Steamer projected Smith for a .695 OPS and Gordon for a .664. For the 2020 edition of The Process (after the fact research), I researched the production level needed to keep a hitter in a lineup. Depending on the player’s defensive ability and position, the average production level that gets a hitter demoted is between .600 OPS and .650 OPS with the average being around .635 OPS. The following chart shows the chances a player’s in-season OPS may drop to knowing their projected OPS.
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Relief Pitchers ADP Market Report: 1/27/2021

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. Read the rest of this entry »


Starting Pitcher ADP Market Report: 1/27/2021

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.

Read the rest of this entry »


Outfield ADP Market Report: 1/25/2021

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. Read the rest of this entry »