Outfield ADP Market Report: 1/25/2021

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.

Top 100 Players Rising

Kyle Tucker (+5.39)- It is not surprising to see Tucker moving up the ADP. He is a former top prospect that finally got playing time in Houston. With George Springer and Josh Reddick gone., there isn’t anyone for the Astros to block him. He has huge power and speed upside, so the gamble at the high ADP is worth it. 

 

Top 100 Players Falling

Aaron Judge (-9.94)- The drop in ADP for Judge isn’t surprising or unwarranted. The upside is massive, but he has not been able to stay on the field. That being said, he finished the season healthy. So, in theory, he should start the year healthy. This is a risk/reward type pick, so if he continues to drop, I will be buying. 

 

Top 200 Players Rising

Byron Buxton (+11.88)- Talent has never been in question on Buxton and in 2020, he delivered fantasy goodness when he was on the field. He popped 13 homers and swiped two bags, but only managed to play in 39 games for the Twins. Projections have him playing around 130 games and being a 25/20 kind of player and if he played that many games he could be a stud. However, he has only one season in which he played 100+ games and that was in 2017. His great StatCast data is tantalizing, but it comes with a 17.4% swinging strike rate and a 51.2% O-Swing. Buxton is the definition of a boom or bust player, but that is a big risk as a top 125 pick. 

Tommy Edman (+18.69)- See the article on shortstops in this series. 

Daulton Varsho (+33.16)- See the article on catchers in this series. 

Nick Solak (+15.84)- See the article on second basemen in this series. 

Victor Reyes (+20.75)- Reyes is emerging as a trendy sleeper due to his speed upside and the fact he seems likely to lead off for the Tigers. He also isn’t completely devoid of power. He could be a 10/15 or 10/20 plater that racks up a bunch of runs and posts an above average batting average. If the price rises too far, it will limit the value. 

Leody Taveras (+48.45)- Another trendy sleeper that is rising is Taveras. Like Reyes, he is expected to lead off and has a ton of speed upside. He has more pop in the bat than Reyes, but the average likely won’t be nearly as good. Hopefully he won’t continue to rise too far. He isn’t as safe as Reyes, but the upside is greater. 

 

Top 200 Players Falling

Dominic Smith (-21.36)- See the article in this series on first basemen. 

Eddie Rosario (-12.13)- Rosario is continuing to slip in large part to him not having signed a deal yet. He should get a starting spot somewhere, so I would expect him to rise after that. As long as he does have an everyday role, he is a pretty safe bet for 25+ homers and some chip-in stolen bases. 

Mike Yastrzemski (-12.37)- Yaz had a huge start to the season, posting the third best WAR in the league behind Fernando Tatis Jr. and Mookie Betts. He didn’t really disappoint in the final month, but it didn’t translate into much more than an empty average profile. He walks a lot and does have a nice hard hit percentage, but it is hard to see a major step forward in the power department or for him to keep the batting average high with an inflated .370 BABIP. I would expect the price to fall some more and it would need to in order for him to be worth drafting. 

Clint Frazier (-16.8)- I am a bit surprised that Frazier is dropping in the ADP. It is likely due to concerns about his playing time, but with Giancarlo Stanton no longer playing the outfield and Brett Gardner gone, there is no reason to think that he won’t play everyday and if he gets traded, then he would be guaranteed the plate appearances. He has 30/10 upside and I will take that in most drafts, especially if he continues to drop. 

Max Kepler (-14.74)- Kepler’s drop is a bit of a correction in the ADP after his disappointing 2020. He hit nine homers and stole three bases and hit .228/.321/.439 in 48 games. His StatCast data is a bit concerning. His barrel percentage, exit velocity, and hard hit percentage all dropped. However, he did increase his walk rate, kept his strikeout rate at a respectable level and had a fantastic 93.7% Z-contact percentage and his expected BA was .258 which is more in line with what we saw in 2019. I like Kepler to bounce back and if his price keeps dropping, he has a lot of profit potential. 

 

Top 300 Players Rising

Austin Hays (+15.92)- Hays is becoming an extremely trendy sleeper. He definitely has some pop and speed and doesn’t strike out. However, there are concerns. First concern is his StatCast numbers are not good at all. He was in the 20th percentile for exit velocity and his barrel and hard hit percentages are even worse. He also doesn’t have guaranteed playing time right now. There appears to be a battle between DJ Stewart, Ryan Mountcastle, Cedric Mullins, and Hays for two spots, so he could find himself in a short sided platoon. On the plus side, I don’t necessarily believe that the Orioles are planning on playing Chris Davis and moving Mountcastle to the outfield. Hays also makes a ton of contact inside in the zone, I just wish he didn’t put the ball on the ground so much. I am not a Hays believer, so I will be fading this rise up the ADP. 

Raimel Tapia (+46.01)- Tapia is rising up the ADP in large part because he offers three categories that are the hardest to come by in runs, stolen bases and average. He is expected to lead off for the Rockies and with guys like Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, and Charlie Blackmon hitting behind him, he should rack up the runs. He is a former top prospect and now that he is a bit older, maybe the Rockies won’t play games with his playing time. His price is still pretty good and he is worth it. 

Bryan Reynolds (+29.75)- Reynolds was an absolute disaster in 2020 for the Pirates after breaking out in 2019. He got unlucky in the BABIP department, but that wasn’t the only reason for his poor average as his xBA was .228. The problem is he doesn’t have a ton of power and he doesn’t run much. I understand the rise in ADP as he is projected to play every day, but I am not that interested in a guy that probably doesn’t hit 20 home runs and isn’t going to steal much. 

Alex Kirilloff (+44.40)- Kirolloff is rising up the ADP in large part because many people believe he will be up to start the season. I don’t know if I buy that. The Twins are an organization that cares a ton about money and service time. I think he will be a good player once he is up, but I don’t know if his power is game ready yet either. I think the prospect pedigree is pushing him up too much. I am out on him if the price continues to rise. 

Scott Kingery (+55.45)- See the article on second basemen in this series. 

Mauricio Dubon (+28.47)- See the article on second basemen in this series. 

 

Top 300 Players Falling

Jarred Kelenic (-20.57)- Kelenic is my #1 prospect for dynasty leagues and so I was surprised to see him drop. I think the question is, when will he be up? The Mariners aren’t competing this year and that could mean that Kelenic isn’t up until mid season. However, I think he could be a monster once he is up. In leagues where stashing is a viable strategy, I think he should be going higher, but I understand people not wanting to wait on his arrival. 

Outfield ADP Market Report: 12/1/2020-1/25/2021
12/1/2020-1/25/2021 Player Team Position(s) 10/1/2020-10/31/2020 11/1/2020-11/30/2020 Change
1.48 Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL OF 1.75 1.52 0.04
3.33 Mookie Betts LAD OF 4 2.89 -0.44
4.42 Juan Soto WAS OF 4.25 4.63 0.21
6.96 Mike Trout LAA OF 5.5 5.41 -1.55
12.21 Christian Yelich MLW OF 11 11.33 -0.88
15.54 Cody Bellinger LAD 1B, OF 16 14.52 -1.02
21.06 Bryce Harper PHI OF 19.75 20.52 -0.54
27.35 Kyle Tucker HOU OF 29 32.74 5.39
32.58 Luis Robert CWS OF 36.25 34.26 1.68
38.73 Whit Merrifield KC 2B, OF 47.5 42.26 3.53
38.88 Eloy Jimenez CWS OF 44.5 40.04 1.16
47.17 Starling Marte MIA OF 54.5 50.74 3.57
49.63 Marcell Ozuna ATL OF 42.25 45 -4.63
54.27 Trent Grisham SD OF 56.25 58.85 4.58
56.56 George Springer HOU OF 61 60.15 3.59
57.04 Cavan Biggio TOR 2B, 3B, OF 57 55.41 -1.63
58.5 Randy Arozarena TB OF 61 56.19 -2.31
63.83 Aaron Judge NYY OF 51.25 53.89 -9.94
72.5 Brandon Lowe TB 2B, OF 81 70.78 -1.72
74.58 Teoscar Hernandez TOR OF 71.75 66.63 -7.95
79.98 Michael Conforto NYM OF 82 79.52 -0.46
81.46 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. TOR OF 100.5 92.26 10.8
89.02 Nick Castellanos CIN OF 79.75 83.44 -5.58
94.44 Jeff McNeil NYM 2B, 3B, OF 109.25 97.7 3.26
94.79 Austin Meadows TB OF 89.25 88.93 -5.86
101.29 Charlie Blackmon COL OF 91.75 93.67 -7.62
108.79 Byron Buxton MIN OF 132.25 120.67 11.88
109.17 Dominic Smith NYM 1B, OF 99 87.81 -21.36
110.1 Dylan Moore SEA 2B, OF 136 113.11 3.01
117.29 Tommy Pham SD OF 109.75 117.04 -0.25
124.35 Alex Verdugo BOS OF 129.25 125.96 1.61
124.94 Eddie Rosario MIN OF 122.25 112.81 -12.13
126.35 Tommy Edman STL 2B, 3B, SS, OF 133.75 145.04 18.69
132.17 Dylan Carlson STL OF 143.75 141.56 9.39
133.67 Kyle Lewis SEA OF 108.75 106.26 -27.41
135 Wil Myers SD OF 123.75 124.41 -10.59
137.38 Ramon Laureano OAK OF 132.25 144.22 6.84
142.96 Mike Yastrzemski SF OF 120.5 130.59 -12.37
147.54 Victor Robles WAS OF 149.25 162.85 15.31
150.58 Daulton Varsho ARZ C, OF 211 183.74 33.16
154.94 Jorge Soler KC OF 149.25 150.07 -4.87
155.96 Michael Brantley HOU OF 160 163.52 7.56
158.6 Ryan Mountcastle BAL 1B, OF 149 138.3 -20.3
158.69 Anthony Santander BAL OF 168 164.26 5.57
159.23 Nick Solak TEX 2B, OF 178.25 175.07 15.84
163.04 Ian Happ CHC OF 160.75 165.56 2.52
171.67 Joey Gallo TEX OF 179.5 165.7 -5.97
177.1 Victor Reyes DET OF 204.25 197.85 20.75
179.81 Leody Taveras TEX OF 229 228.26 48.45
187.13 Randal Grichuk TOR OF 190.25 191.59 4.46
190.58 Clint Frazier NYY OF 168.25 173.78 -16.8
194.13 Trey Mancini BAL 1B, OF 224.25 200.63 6.5
194.63 Max Kepler MIN OF 191.75 179.89 -14.74
199.79 Kyle Schwarber CHC OF 199.25 193.89 -5.9
200.33 Andrew McCutchen PHI OF 211.25 208.07 7.74
205.4 Jurickson Profar SD 2B, OF 194.75 207.48 2.08
218.96 AJ Pollock LAD OF 232.75 209.59 -9.37
219.08 Austin Hays BAL OF 228.5 235 15.92
220.25 J.D. Davis NYM 3B, OF 207.25 210.48 -9.77
220.35 Jesse Winker CIN OF 205.75 204.52 -15.83
224.46 Jarred Kelenic SEA OF 199.25 203.89 -20.57
230.02 Chris Taylor LAD 2B, SS, OF 250 232 1.98
234.29 Hunter Dozier KC 1B, OF 232.75 241.56 7.27
235.21 Lorenzo Cain MLW OF 262.75 239.07 3.86
236.38 Andrew Benintendi BOS OF 211.5 225.33 -11.05
239.48 Yasiel Puig ATL OF 287 254.48 15
241.44 Jon Berti MIA 2B, OF 249 248.15 6.71
250.31 Manuel Margot TB OF 287 251.15 0.84
252.92 Raimel Tapia COL OF 283 298.93 46.01
265.73 Brandon Nimmo NYM OF 269.75 249.59 -16.14
267.92 Kole Calhoun ARZ OF 262.75 264.93 -2.99
268.44 Nick Senzel CIN OF 261.75 255 -13.44
269.77 Bryan Reynolds PIT OF 307.5 299.52 29.75
272.94 Garrett Hampson COL 2B, OF 260.25 264.3 -8.64
273.02 David Peralta ARZ OF 320.75 277.22 4.2
274.48 Aaron Hicks NYY OF 286.75 280.93 6.45
275.02 Mark Canha OAK OF 275.75 278.74 3.72
275.08 Alex Kirilloff MIN OF 294.25 319.48 44.4
279.25 Scott Kingery PHI 2B, OF 271 334.7 55.45
282.9 Mauricio Dubon SF 2B, SS, OF 347.5 311.37 28.47
294.44 Mitch Haniger SEA OF 325.25 297.56 3.12
303.44 David Dahl COL OF 271.25 307.67 4.23
317.71 Avisail Garcia MLW OF 378.5 355.22 37.51
325.04 Kevin Pillar COL OF 287.5 344.44 19.4
326.81 Justin Upton LAA OF 425.75 413.41 86.6
328.38 Alex Dickerson SF OF 395.25 352.74 24.36
330.35 Willie Calhoun TEX OF 314.5 309.22 -21.13
330.79 Adam Eaton WAS OF 365.75 436.37 105.58
333.04 Corey Dickerson MIA OF 364 356.56 23.52
341.31 Jackie Bradley Jr. BOS OF 386.75 365.74 24.43
346.71 Jo Adell LAA OF 245.25 269.3 -77.41
351.15 Austin Slater SF OF 361.75 338.59 -12.56
352.54 Sam Hilliard COL OF 414.75 408.11 55.57
364.69 Joc Pederson LAD OF 408 408.59 43.9
365.33 Franchy Cordero KC OF 396.25 415.63 50.3
367.1 Oscar Mercado CLE OF 360.25 370.11 3.01
368.19 Josh Naylor CLE OF 421.25 426.3 58.11
382.96 Michael Chavis BOS 1B, 2B, OF 372 389.37 6.41
383.4 Cristian Pache ATL OF 383 373.85 -9.55
385.35 JaCoby Jones DET OF 362.75 399.74 14.39
387.19 Hunter Renfroe TB OF 505.25 521.74 134.55
390.48 Shogo Akiyama CIN OF 368.5 389.19 -1.29
390.56 Gregory Polanco PIT OF 428 431.59 41.03
392.83 Adam Duvall ATL OF 316 319.52 -73.31
410.35 Cedric Mullins BAL OF 315.25 389.11 -21.24
412.83 Robbie Grossman OAK OF 378.5 437.15 24.32
413.85 Jason Heyward CHC OF 442 435.59 21.74
427.85 Harrison Bader STL OF 467.5 512.37 84.52
429.92 Andrew Stevenson WAS OF 438.75 435.11 5.19
435.08 Stephen Piscotty OAK OF 474 478.7 43.62
436.73 Roman Quinn PHI OF 422 486.48 49.75
439.85 Edward Olivares KC OF 420 468.78 28.93
441.9 Kevin Kiermaier TB OF 421.25 482.11 40.21
447.44 Adam Frazier PIT 2B, OF 498.75 498.81 51.37
449.54 Tyler O’Neill STL OF 494.75 482.04 32.5
463.75 Myles Straw HOU OF 487.25 497.67 33.92
464.38 Miguel Andujar NYY OF 422.75 470.56 6.18
466.31 Yoshi Tsutsugo TB 3B, OF 471 503.33 37.02
470.71 Jared Oliva PIT OF 433.5 476.26 5.55
472.15 Marwin Gonzalez MIN 1B, 2B, 3B, OF 471.75 478.33 6.18
472.25 Kike Hernandez LAD 2B, OF 560.5 547.26 75.01
478.31 DJ Stewart BAL OF 528.25 525.22 46.91
488.33 Shin-Soo Choo TEX OF 452.5 459.56 -28.77
500.13 Nomar Mazara CWS OF 458.25 495.11 -5.02
520.85 Mike Tauchman NYY OF 502.25 572.11 51.26
527.88 Michael A. Taylor WAS OF 659.5 731.67 203.79
530.15 Tim Locastro ARZ OF 610.25 602.74 72.59
532.75 Lewis Brinson MIA OF 512 588.3 55.55
538 Brandon Marsh LAA OF 526.75 598.89 60.89
564.08 Aristides Aquino CIN OF 554.25 577.15 13.07
575 Ian Desmond COL OF 598.5 613.59 38.59
585.23 Ryan Braun MLW OF 514.75 607.07 21.84
595.31 Jake Bauers CLE 1B, OF 739.75 728.74 133.43
595.63 Monte Harrison MIA OF 491.5 593.59 -2.04
598.54 Drew Waters ATL OF 642 649.44 50.9
607.56 Julio Rodriguez SEA OF 463.25 550.96 -56.6
614.31 Brent Rooker MIN OF 632.25 685.3 70.99
616.06 Brett Gardner NYY OF 585.25 634.59 18.53
624.71 Dexter Fowler STL OF 670.25 702.78 78.07
624.75 Lane Thomas STL OF 661 677.59 52.84
628.13 Daniel Johnson CLE OF NA 735.37 107.24
631.02 Anthony Alford PIT OF 686.25 715.15 84.13
631.69 Cole Tucker PIT OF 606.25 683.85 52.16
640.94 Bradley Zimmer CLE OF 745 747.93 106.99
643.08 Jake Fraley SEA OF 584.75 653.78 10.7
643.1 Ender Inciarte ATL OF 695.5 714.7 71.6
643.79 Na Sung-bum FA OF NA 695.63 51.84
648.46 Adam Haseley PHI OF 715.5 688.56 40.1
651.13 Josh Lowe TB OF 620 629.33 -21.8
651.58 Taylor Ward LAA OF 703.75 705.11 53.53
655.27 Jarren Duran BOS OF 573 631.48 -23.79
659.56 Adam Engel CWS OF 740.25 722.04 62.48
662.31 Mallex Smith SEA OF 657 652.44 -9.87
668 Magneuris Sierra MIA OF 642.75 669.74 1.74
670.17 Trevor Larnach MIN OF NA 706.63 36.46
674.1 Sam Haggerty SEA OF 533.25 640.15 -33.95
674.35 Daz Cameron DET OF 659.5 688.85 14.5
675.42 Josh Reddick HOU OF 573 636.63 -38.79
685.19 Taylor Trammell SEA OF 668.25 661.22 -23.97
685.52 Jake Cave MIN OF NA 738.93 53.41
693.19 Brian Goodwin CIN OF 710.75 687.33 -5.86
695.56 JJ Bleday MIA OF 736.75 710.15 14.59
696.58 Khalil Lee KC OF 742.75 728.63 32.05
708.21 Tyler Naquin CLE OF 681.25 662.89 -45.32
709.94 Darin Ruf SF OF 683.75 715.37 5.43
710.58 Yairo Munoz BOS OF 597 670.48 -40.1
715.02 Christin Stewart DET OF NA 731.04 16.02
715.42 Jose Marmolejos SEA OF 664.25 711.33 -4.09
720.1 Tim Lopes SEA OF 665.75 714.85 -5.25
722.56 Haruki Nishikawa FA OF NA NA NA
723.44 Dee Strange-Gordon SEA 2B, OF 743.25 717.52 -5.92
724.52 Harold Castro DET OF 713.75 682.89 -41.63
724.98 Oscar Colas FA OF NA NA NA
725.77 Delino DeShields CLE OF 650 658.7 -67.07
728.48 Jesus Sanchez MIA OF 750 732.11 3.63
735.1 Jorge Mateo SD OF 727.25 728.78 -6.32
738.35 Derek Fisher TOR OF 745.25 750.89 12.54
740.44 Pedro Leon FA OF NA NA NA
741.27 Brian O’Grady SD OF NA NA NA
741.5 Nick Markakis ATL OF 722 721.89 -19.61
743.21 Domingo Santana CLE OF 597.75 676.93 -66.28
743.29 Jaylin Davis SF OF NA 743.7 0.41
743.42 Tyrone Taylor MLW OF 667.5 738.7 -4.72
743.67 Rusney Castillo BOS OF 726.75 704.74 -38.93
744.4 Greg Allen SD OF 747.25 749.78 5.38
745.33 Jay Bruce PHI OF 732 741.44 -3.89
745.5 Heliot Ramos SF OF 687 736.52 -8.98
745.9 Yoelkis Cespedes CWS OF 745.9 NA NA
746.04 Brett Phillips TB OF 727.5 748.85 2.81
747.33 Eli White TEX OF NA 741.93 -5.4
747.44 Jonathan Davis TOR OF 733.25 747.89 0.45
747.56 Estevan Florial NYY OF NA 744.07 -3.49
747.83 Phillip Ervin SEA OF NA 748.74 0.91
748.63 Cameron Maybin CHC OF 749.25 745.63 -3
748.63 Jordan Luplow CLE OF NA NA NA
748.71 Riley Greene DET OF 746 744.74 -3.97
748.73 Mickey Moniak PHI OF 744.75 747.74 -0.99
749.44 Jorge Bonifacio DET OF 724.75 750 0.56
749.52 Jose Osuna PIT 1B, OF 733.25 741.93 -7.59
750.25 Billy Hamilton CHC OF 723.5 749.59 -0.66
750.48 Mark Mathias MLW OF NA NA NA
750.52 Albert Almora Jr. CHC OF 743.75 NA NA
750.67 Jake Marisnick NYM OF 747.75 750 -0.67
750.96 Braden Bishop SEA OF NA NA NA
NA Brock Holt WAS 3B, OF NA 748.96 NA
NA Hunter Bishop SF OF 720.75 NA NA
NA Jarrod Dyson CWS OF 742 749.41 NA
NA Kristian Robinson ARZ OF 714 741.33 NA
NA Matt Joyce MIA OF NA 749.96 NA
NA Phil Gosselin PHI 1B, OF NA 749.44 NA
NA Seth Beer ARZ OF 603.5 613.15 NA
NA Victor Victor Mesa MIA OF 747.5 747.74 NA
SOURCE: https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
Draft Champions Data from 12/1/2020-1/25/2021





Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as random topics that float into his juvenile brain. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, and a fantasy football and baseball writer for Fantasy Alarm. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

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Buhners Rocket Arm
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Buhners Rocket Arm

Wow OF is awful this year. So much risk by the time most teams still need to draft an OF2. With so many IF positions showing huge depth right now I’m looking to fill at least 2, maybe 3, OF positions early.