2021

January 26, 2021

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.

Top 100 Players Rising

Kyle Tucker (+5.39)- It is not surprising to see Tucker moving up the ADP. He is a former top prospect that finally got playing time in Houston. With George Springer and Josh Reddick gone., there isn’t anyone for the Astros to block him. He has huge power and speed upside, so the gamble at the high ADP is worth it.

Top 100 Players Falling

Aaron Judge (-9.94)- The drop in ADP for Judge isn’t surprising or unwarranted. The upside is massive, but he has not been able to stay on the field. That being said, he finished the season healthy. So, in theory, he should start the year healthy. This is a risk/reward type pick, so if he continues to drop, I will be buying.

Top 200 Players Rising

Byron Buxton (+11.88)- Talent has never been in question on Buxton and in 2020, he delivered fantasy goodness when he was on the field. He popped 13 homers and swiped two bags, but only managed to play in 39 games for the Twins. Projections have him playing around 130 games and being a 25/20 kind of player and if he played that many games he could be a stud. However, he has only one season in which he played 100+ games and that was in 2017. His great StatCast data is tantalizing, but it comes with a 17.4% swinging strike rate and a 51.2% O-Swing. Buxton is the definition of a boom or bust player, but that is a big risk as a top 125 pick.

Tommy Edman (+18.69)- See the article on shortstops in this series.

Daulton Varsho (+33.16)- See the article on catchers in this series.

Nick Solak (+15.84)- See the article on second basemen in this series.

Victor Reyes (+20.75)- Reyes is emerging as a trendy sleeper due to his speed upside and the fact he seems likely to lead off for the Tigers. He also isn’t completely devoid of power. He could be a 10/15 or 10/20 plater that racks up a bunch of runs and posts an above average batting average. If the price rises too far, it will limit the value.

Leody Taveras (+48.45)- Another trendy sleeper that is rising is Taveras. Like Reyes, he is expected to lead off and has a ton of speed upside. He has more pop in the bat than Reyes, but the average likely won’t be nearly as good. Hopefully he won’t continue to rise too far. He isn’t as safe as Reyes, but the upside is greater.

Top 200 Players Falling

Dominic Smith (-21.36)- See the article in this series on first basemen.

Eddie Rosario (-12.13)- Rosario is continuing to slip in large part to him not having signed a deal yet. He should get a starting spot somewhere, so I would expect him to rise after that. As long as he does have an everyday role, he is a pretty safe bet for 25+ homers and some chip-in stolen bases.

Mike Yastrzemski (-12.37)- Yaz had a huge start to the season, posting the third best WAR in the league behind Fernando Tatis Jr. and Mookie Betts. He didn’t really disappoint in the final month, but it didn’t translate into much more than an empty average profile. He walks a lot and does have a nice hard hit percentage, but it is hard to see a major step forward in the power department or for him to keep the batting average high with an inflated .370 BABIP. I would expect the price to fall some more and it would need to in order for him to be worth drafting.

Clint Frazier (-16.8)- I am a bit surprised that Frazier is dropping in the ADP. It is likely due to concerns about his playing time, but with Giancarlo Stanton no longer playing the outfield and Brett Gardner gone, there is no reason to think that he won’t play everyday and if he gets traded, then he would be guaranteed the plate appearances. He has 30/10 upside and I will take that in most drafts, especially if he continues to drop.

Max Kepler (-14.74)- Kepler’s drop is a bit of a correction in the ADP after his disappointing 2020. He hit nine homers and stole three bases and hit .228/.321/.439 in 48 games. His StatCast data is a bit concerning. His barrel percentage, exit velocity, and hard hit percentage all dropped. However, he did increase his walk rate, kept his strikeout rate at a respectable level and had a fantastic 93.7% Z-contact percentage and his expected BA was .258 which is more in line with what we saw in 2019. I like Kepler to bounce back and if his price keeps dropping, he has a lot of profit potential.

Top 300 Players Rising

Austin Hays (+15.92)- Hays is becoming an extremely trendy sleeper. He definitely has some pop and speed and doesn’t strike out. However, there are concerns. First concern is his StatCast numbers are not good at all. He was in the 20th percentile for exit velocity and his barrel and hard hit percentages are even worse. He also doesn’t have guaranteed playing time right now. There appears to be a battle between DJ Stewart, Ryan Mount castle, Cedric Mullins, and Hays for two spots, so he could find himself in a short sided platoon. On the plus side, I don’t necessarily believe that the Orioles are planning on playing Chris Davis and moving Mountcastle to the outfield. Hays also makes a ton of contact inside in the zone, I just wish he didn’t put the ball on the ground so much. I am not a Hays believer, so I will be fading this rise up the ADP.

Raimel Tapia (+46.01)- Tapia is rising up the ADP in large part because he offers three categories that are the hardest to come by in runs, stolen bases and average. He is expected to lead off for the Rockies and with guys like Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, and Charlie Blackmon hitting behind him, he should rack up the runs. He is a former top prospect and now that he is a bit older, maybe the Rockies won’t play games with his playing time. His price is still pretty good and he is worth it.

Bryan Reynolds (+29.75)- Reynolds was an absolute disaster in 2020 for the Pirates after breaking out in 2019. He got unlucky in the BABIP department, but that wasn’t the only reason for his poor average as his xBA was .228. The problem is he doesn’t have a ton of power and he doesn’t run much. I understand the rise in ADP as he is projected to play every day, but I am not that interested in a guy that probably doesn’t hit 20 home runs and isn’t going to steal much.

Alex Kirilloff (+44.40)- Kirolloff is rising up the ADP in large part because many people believe he will be up to start the season. I don’t know if I buy that. The Twins are an organization that cares a ton about money and service time. I think he will be a good player once he is up, but I don’t know if his power is game ready yet either. I think the prospect pedigree is pushing him up too much. I am out on him if the price continues to rise.

Scott Kingery (+55.45)- See the article on second basemen in this series.

Mauricio Dubon (+28.47)- See the article on second basemen in this series.

Top 300 Players Falling

Jarred Kelenic (-20.57)- Kelenic is my #1 prospect for dynasty leagues and so I was surprised to see him drop. I think the question is, when will he be up? The Mariners aren’t competing this year and that could mean that Kelenic isn’t up until mid season. However, I think he could be a monster once he is up. In leagues where stashing is a viable strategy, I think he should be going higher, but I understand people not wanting to wait on his arrival.

Outfield ADP Market Report: 12/1/2020-1/25/2021

12/1/2020-1/25/2021	Player	Team	Position(s)	10/1/2020-10/31/2020	11/1/2020-11/30/2020	Change
1.48	Ronald Acuna Jr.	ATL	OF	1.75	1.52	0.04
3.33	Mookie Betts	LAD	OF	4	2.89	-0.44
4.42	Juan Soto	WAS	OF	4.25	4.63	0.21
6.96	Mike Trout	LAA	OF	5.5	5.41	-1.55
12.21	Christian Yelich	MLW	OF	11	11.33	-0.88
15.54	Cody Bellinger	LAD	1B, OF	16	14.52	-1.02
21.06	Bryce Harper	PHI	OF	19.75	20.52	-0.54
27.35	Kyle Tucker	HOU	OF	29	32.74	5.39
32.58	Luis Robert	CWS	OF	36.25	34.26	1.68
38.73	Whit Merrifield	KC	2B, OF	47.5	42.26	3.53
38.88	Eloy Jimenez	CWS	OF	44.5	40.04	1.16
47.17	Starling Marte	MIA	OF	54.5	50.74	3.57
49.63	Marcell Ozuna	ATL	OF	42.25	45	-4.63
54.27	Trent Grisham	SD	OF	56.25	58.85	4.58
56.56	George Springer	HOU	OF	61	60.15	3.59
57.04	Cavan Biggio	TOR	2B, 3B, OF	57	55.41	-1.63
58.5	Randy Arozarena	TB	OF	61	56.19	-2.31
63.83	Aaron Judge	NYY	OF	51.25	53.89	-9.94
72.5	Brandon Lowe	TB	2B, OF	81	70.78	-1.72
74.58	Teoscar Hernandez	TOR	OF	71.75	66.63	-7.95
79.98	Michael Conforto	NYM	OF	82	79.52	-0.46
81.46	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	TOR	OF	100.5	92.26	10.8
89.02	Nick Castellanos	CIN	OF	79.75	83.44	-5.58
94.44	Jeff McNeil	NYM	2B, 3B, OF	109.25	97.7	3.26
94.79	Austin Meadows	TB	OF	89.25	88.93	-5.86
101.29	Charlie Blackmon	COL	OF	91.75	93.67	-7.62
108.79	Byron Buxton	MIN	OF	132.25	120.67	11.88
109.17	Dominic Smith	NYM	1B, OF	99	87.81	-21.36
110.1	Dylan Moore	SEA	2B, OF	136	113.11	3.01
117.29	Tommy Pham	SD	OF	109.75	117.04	-0.25
124.35	Alex Verdugo	BOS	OF	129.25	125.96	1.61
124.94	Eddie Rosario	MIN	OF	122.25	112.81	-12.13
126.35	Tommy Edman	STL	2B, 3B, SS, OF	133.75	145.04	18.69
132.17	Dylan Carlson	STL	OF	143.75	141.56	9.39
133.67	Kyle Lewis	SEA	OF	108.75	106.26	-27.41
135	Wil Myers	SD	OF	123.75	124.41	-10.59
137.38	Ramon Laureano	OAK	OF	132.25	144.22	6.84
142.96	Mike Yastrzemski	SF	OF	120.5	130.59	-12.37
147.54	Victor Robles	WAS	OF	149.25	162.85	15.31
150.58	Daulton Varsho	ARZ	C, OF	211	183.74	33.16
154.94	Jorge Soler	KC	OF	149.25	150.07	-4.87
155.96	Michael Brantley	HOU	OF	160	163.52	7.56
158.6	Ryan Mountcastle	BAL	1B, OF	149	138.3	-20.3
158.69	Anthony Santander	BAL	OF	168	164.26	5.57
159.23	Nick Solak	TEX	2B, OF	178.25	175.07	15.84
163.04	Ian Happ	CHC	OF	160.75	165.56	2.52
171.67	Joey Gallo	TEX	OF	179.5	165.7	-5.97
177.1	Victor Reyes	DET	OF	204.25	197.85	20.75
179.81	Leody Taveras	TEX	OF	229	228.26	48.45
187.13	Randal Grichuk	TOR	OF	190.25	191.59	4.46
190.58	Clint Frazier	NYY	OF	168.25	173.78	-16.8
194.13	Trey Mancini	BAL	1B, OF	224.25	200.63	6.5
194.63	Max Kepler	MIN	OF	191.75	179.89	-14.74
199.79	Kyle Schwarber	CHC	OF	199.25	193.89	-5.9
200.33	Andrew McCutchen	PHI	OF	211.25	208.07	7.74
205.4	Jurickson Profar	SD	2B, OF	194.75	207.48	2.08
218.96	AJ Pollock	LAD	OF	232.75	209.59	-9.37
219.08	Austin Hays	BAL	OF	228.5	235	15.92
220.25	J.D. Davis	NYM	3B, OF	207.25	210.48	-9.77
220.35	Jesse Winker	CIN	OF	205.75	204.52	-15.83
224.46	Jarred Kelenic	SEA	OF	199.25	203.89	-20.57
230.02	Chris Taylor	LAD	2B, SS, OF	250	232	1.98
234.29	Hunter Dozier	KC	1B, OF	232.75	241.56	7.27
235.21	Lorenzo Cain	MLW	OF	262.75	239.07	3.86
236.38	Andrew Benintendi	BOS	OF	211.5	225.33	-11.05
239.48	Yasiel Puig	ATL	OF	287	254.48	15
241.44	Jon Berti	MIA	2B, OF	249	248.15	6.71
250.31	Manuel Margot	TB	OF	287	251.15	0.84
252.92	Raimel Tapia	COL	OF	283	298.93	46.01
265.73	Brandon Nimmo	NYM	OF	269.75	249.59	-16.14
267.92	Kole Calhoun	ARZ	OF	262.75	264.93	-2.99
268.44	Nick Senzel	CIN	OF	261.75	255	-13.44
269.77	Bryan Reynolds	PIT	OF	307.5	299.52	29.75
272.94	Garrett Hampson	COL	2B, OF	260.25	264.3	-8.64
273.02	David Peralta	ARZ	OF	320.75	277.22	4.2
274.48	Aaron Hicks	NYY	OF	286.75	280.93	6.45
275.02	Mark Canha	OAK	OF	275.75	278.74	3.72
275.08	Alex Kirilloff	MIN	OF	294.25	319.48	44.4
279.25	Scott Kingery	PHI	2B, OF	271	334.7	55.45
282.9	Mauricio Dubon	SF	2B, SS, OF	347.5	311.37	28.47
294.44	Mitch Haniger	SEA	OF	325.25	297.56	3.12
303.44	David Dahl	COL	OF	271.25	307.67	4.23
317.71	Avisail Garcia	MLW	OF	378.5	355.22	37.51
325.04	Kevin Pillar	COL	OF	287.5	344.44	19.4
326.81	Justin Upton	LAA	OF	425.75	413.41	86.6
328.38	Alex Dickerson	SF	OF	395.25	352.74	24.36
330.35	Willie Calhoun	TEX	OF	314.5	309.22	-21.13
330.79	Adam Eaton	WAS	OF	365.75	436.37	105.58
333.04	Corey Dickerson	MIA	OF	364	356.56	23.52
341.31	Jackie Bradley Jr.	BOS	OF	386.75	365.74	24.43
346.71	Jo Adell	LAA	OF	245.25	269.3	-77.41
351.15	Austin Slater	SF	OF	361.75	338.59	-12.56
352.54	Sam Hilliard	COL	OF	414.75	408.11	55.57
364.69	Joc Pederson	LAD	OF	408	408.59	43.9
365.33	Franchy Cordero	KC	OF	396.25	415.63	50.3
367.1	Oscar Mercado	CLE	OF	360.25	370.11	3.01
368.19	Josh Naylor	CLE	OF	421.25	426.3	58.11
382.96	Michael Chavis	BOS	1B, 2B, OF	372	389.37	6.41
383.4	Cristian Pache	ATL	OF	383	373.85	-9.55
385.35	JaCoby Jones	DET	OF	362.75	399.74	14.39
387.19	Hunter Renfroe	TB	OF	505.25	521.74	134.55
390.48	Shogo Akiyama	CIN	OF	368.5	389.19	-1.29
390.56	Gregory Polanco	PIT	OF	428	431.59	41.03
392.83	Adam Duvall	ATL	OF	316	319.52	-73.31
410.35	Cedric Mullins	BAL	OF	315.25	389.11	-21.24
412.83	Robbie Grossman	OAK	OF	378.5	437.15	24.32
413.85	Jason Heyward	CHC	OF	442	435.59	21.74
427.85	Harrison Bader	STL	OF	467.5	512.37	84.52
429.92	Andrew Stevenson	WAS	OF	438.75	435.11	5.19
435.08	Stephen Piscotty	OAK	OF	474	478.7	43.62
436.73	Roman Quinn	PHI	OF	422	486.48	49.75
439.85	Edward Olivares	KC	OF	420	468.78	28.93
441.9	Kevin Kiermaier	TB	OF	421.25	482.11	40.21
447.44	Adam Frazier	PIT	2B, OF	498.75	498.81	51.37
449.54	Tyler O’Neill	STL	OF	494.75	482.04	32.5
463.75	Myles Straw	HOU	OF	487.25	497.67	33.92
464.38	Miguel Andujar	NYY	OF	422.75	470.56	6.18
466.31	Yoshi Tsutsugo	TB	3B, OF	471	503.33	37.02
470.71	Jared Oliva	PIT	OF	433.5	476.26	5.55
472.15	Marwin Gonzalez	MIN	1B, 2B, 3B, OF	471.75	478.33	6.18
472.25	Kike Hernandez	LAD	2B, OF	560.5	547.26	75.01
478.31	DJ Stewart	BAL	OF	528.25	525.22	46.91
488.33	Shin-Soo Choo	TEX	OF	452.5	459.56	-28.77
500.13	Nomar Mazara	CWS	OF	458.25	495.11	-5.02
520.85	Mike Tauchman	NYY	OF	502.25	572.11	51.26
527.88	Michael A. Taylor	WAS	OF	659.5	731.67	203.79
530.15	Tim Locastro	ARZ	OF	610.25	602.74	72.59
532.75	Lewis Brinson	MIA	OF	512	588.3	55.55
538	Brandon Marsh	LAA	OF	526.75	598.89	60.89
564.08	Aristides Aquino	CIN	OF	554.25	577.15	13.07
575	Ian Desmond	COL	OF	598.5	613.59	38.59
585.23	Ryan Braun	MLW	OF	514.75	607.07	21.84
595.31	Jake Bauers	CLE	1B, OF	739.75	728.74	133.43
595.63	Monte Harrison	MIA	OF	491.5	593.59	-2.04
598.54	Drew Waters	ATL	OF	642	649.44	50.9
607.56	Julio Rodriguez	SEA	OF	463.25	550.96	-56.6
614.31	Brent Rooker	MIN	OF	632.25	685.3	70.99
616.06	Brett Gardner	NYY	OF	585.25	634.59	18.53
624.71	Dexter Fowler	STL	OF	670.25	702.78	78.07
624.75	Lane Thomas	STL	OF	661	677.59	52.84
628.13	Daniel Johnson	CLE	OF	NA	735.37	107.24
631.02	Anthony Alford	PIT	OF	686.25	715.15	84.13
631.69	Cole Tucker	PIT	OF	606.25	683.85	52.16
640.94	Bradley Zimmer	CLE	OF	745	747.93	106.99
643.08	Jake Fraley	SEA	OF	584.75	653.78	10.7
643.1	Ender Inciarte	ATL	OF	695.5	714.7	71.6
643.79	Na Sung-bum	FA	OF	NA	695.63	51.84
648.46	Adam Haseley	PHI	OF	715.5	688.56	40.1
651.13	Josh Lowe	TB	OF	620	629.33	-21.8
651.58	Taylor Ward	LAA	OF	703.75	705.11	53.53
655.27	Jarren Duran	BOS	OF	573	631.48	-23.79
659.56	Adam Engel	CWS	OF	740.25	722.04	62.48
662.31	Mallex Smith	SEA	OF	657	652.44	-9.87
668	Magneuris Sierra	MIA	OF	642.75	669.74	1.74
670.17	Trevor Larnach	MIN	OF	NA	706.63	36.46
674.1	Sam Haggerty	SEA	OF	533.25	640.15	-33.95
674.35	Daz Cameron	DET	OF	659.5	688.85	14.5
675.42	Josh Reddick	HOU	OF	573	636.63	-38.79
685.19	Taylor Trammell	SEA	OF	668.25	661.22	-23.97
685.52	Jake Cave	MIN	OF	NA	738.93	53.41
693.19	Brian Goodwin	CIN	OF	710.75	687.33	-5.86
695.56	JJ Bleday	MIA	OF	736.75	710.15	14.59
696.58	Khalil Lee	KC	OF	742.75	728.63	32.05
708.21	Tyler Naquin	CLE	OF	681.25	662.89	-45.32
709.94	Darin Ruf	SF	OF	683.75	715.37	5.43
710.58	Yairo Munoz	BOS	OF	597	670.48	-40.1
715.02	Christin Stewart	DET	OF	NA	731.04	16.02
715.42	Jose Marmolejo s	SEA	OF	664.25	711.33	-4.09
720.1	Tim Lopes	SEA	OF	665.75	714.85	-5.25
722.56	Haruki Nishikawa	FA	OF	NA	NA	NA
723.44	Dee Strange-Gordon	SEA	2B, OF	743.25	717.52	-5.92
724.52	Harold Castro	DET	OF	713.75	682.89	-41.63
724.98	Oscar Colas	FA	OF	NA	NA	NA
725.77	Delino DeShields	CLE	OF	650	658.7	-67.07
728.48	Jesus Sanchez	MIA	OF	750	732.11	3.63
735.1	Jorge Mateo	SD	OF	727.25	728.78	-6.32
738.35	Derek Fisher	TOR	OF	745.25	750.89	12.54
740.44	Pedro Leon	FA	OF	NA	NA	NA
741.27	Brian O’Grady	SD	OF	NA	NA	NA
741.5	Nick Markakis	ATL	OF	722	721.89	-19.61
743.21	Domingo Santana	CLE	OF	597.75	676.93	-66.28
743.29	Jaylin Davis	SF	OF	NA	743.7	0.41
743.42	Tyrone Taylor	MLW	OF	667.5	738.7	-4.72
743.67	Rusney Castillo	BOS	OF	726.75	704.74	-38.93
744.4	Greg Allen	SD	OF	747.25	749.78	5.38
745.33	Jay Bruce	PHI	OF	732	741.44	-3.89
745.5	Heliot Ramos	SF	OF	687	736.52	-8.98
745.9	Yoelkis Cespedes	CWS	OF	745.9	NA	NA
746.04	Brett Phillips	TB	OF	727.5	748.85	2.81
747.33	Eli White	TEX	OF	NA	741.93	-5.4
747.44	Jonathan Davis	TOR	OF	733.25	747.89	0.45
747.56	Estevan Florial	NYY	OF	NA	744.07	-3.49
747.83	Phillip Ervin	SEA	OF	NA	748.74	0.91
748.63	Cameron Maybin	CHC	OF	749.25	745.63	-3
748.63	Jordan Luplow	CLE	OF	NA	NA	NA
748.71	Riley Greene	DET	OF	746	744.74	-3.97
748.73	Mickey Moniak	PHI	OF	744.75	747.74	-0.99
749.44	Jorge Bonifacio	DET	OF	724.75	750	0.56
749.52	Jose Osuna	PIT	1B, OF	733.25	741.93	-7.59
750.25	Billy Hamilton	CHC	OF	723.5	749.59	-0.66
750.48	Mark Mathias	MLW	OF	NA	NA	NA
750.52	Albert Almora Jr.	CHC	OF	743.75	NA	NA
750.67	Jake Marisnick	NYM	OF	747.75	750	-0.67
750.96	Braden Bishop	SEA	OF	NA	NA	NA
NA	Brock Holt	WAS	3B, OF	NA	748.96	NA
NA	Hunter Bishop	SF	OF	720.75	NA	NA
NA	Jarrod Dyson	CWS	OF	742	749.41	NA
NA	Kristian Robinson	ARZ	OF	714	741.33	NA
NA	Matt Joyce	MIA	OF	NA	749.96	NA
NA	Phil Gosselin	PHI	1B, OF	NA	749.44	NA
NA	Seth Beer	ARZ	OF	603.5	613.15	NA
NA	Victor Victor Mesa	MIA	OF	747.5	747.74	NA

SOURCE: https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball

Draft Champions Data from 12/1/2020-1/25/2021

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Buhners Rocket Armmember

3 years ago

Wow OF is awful this year. So much risk by the time most teams still need to draft an OF2. With so many IF positions showing huge depth right now I’m looking to fill at least 2, maybe 3, OF positions early.