Catcher ADP Market Report: 2/15/2021

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.

Top 100 Players Rising

None

 

Top 100 Players Falling

None

 

Top 200 Players Rising

Gary Sachez (+10.03)- Sanchez is starting to rise up the ADP after being a player falling last month. Sanchez is coming off a brutal season in which he hit only .147/.235/.365 with 10 home runs in 178 plate appearances. We know the power is legit, but the batting average has been brutal now for three seasons. He also started to lose some time behind the plate as well due to his poor defense. Sanchez has been a legit top 3 catcher before and if he can get some BABIP, luck he would return a ton of value, but you have to account for the fact he will likely have a really bad average. 

 

Top 200 Players Falling

None

 

Top 300 Players Rising

Buster Posey (+11.25)- It is interesting to see Posey rising up the ADP after opting out of the 2020 season. Supposedly he is in great shape and has a vote of confidence from Kapler. I have wondered in recent seasons if the power dip we have seen from him is due to being banged up so much. He should catch a fair amount and with Brandon Belt possibly missing opening day, he could get more time at first base as well. If the DH were to return to the NL, he would have another path to playing time. I think there is a pretty safe batting average floor that many other later catchers don’t have along with some potential upside if the year away does help the power return. 

Carson Kelly (+25.96)- It is a bit weird to see Kelly rising which may have more to do with the reports that Dalton Varsho may start the year in the minors. After a breakout season in 2019, Kelly really struggled in 2020. His StatCast data was truly atrocious in 2020 as well. However, if you look at his last month, he hit .254 with four home runs which is much more in line with what he should be over the course of a full year if he got full time playing time. There is a bunch of risk here though. Varsho will return at some point and the Diamondbacks do have other options if Kelly struggles. 

 

Top 300 Players Falling

Jorge Alfaro- It isn’t too surprising to see Alfaro to continue to drop in the ADP. On top of Alfaro missing the first part of the season due to COVID-19 and then never really get it going. There were also rumors that the Marlins were interested in acquiring Willson Contreras which would mean Alfaro would be out of a job. He still hits the ball hard, but hits it a lot on the ground and swings and misses a lot. There is also the chance he isn’t the main catcher which would obviously hurt his value, but I think he is considering he caught 19 of the Marlins games in September unless the Marlins acquire Contreras or another player . Alfaro is a risky C2 that is a bit of a boom or bust.