First Base ADP Market Report: 2/18/2021

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.

Top 100 Players Rising

None

 

Top 100 Players Falling

Jose Abreu (-7.14)- It is a bit weird to see the reigning MVP to drop in the ADP, but I think there is some fear that he will regress back to his usual production after a monster 2020. I don’t know if that is a bad thing though. The White Sox lineup is stacked which means he could easily be a 30+ homer, 110+ RBI bat with a good average for a slugger. If he continues to drop as we start seeing pitching rise, then I will be buying. 

 

Top 200 Players Rising

Rhys Hoskins (+12.28)- Hoskins raised up the ADP over the last month in what seems to be a correction from some pretty big drops in the ADP from earlier in draft season. While he posted a video of taking batting practice and it sounds like there is a chance he could be ready for spring training which makes it sound like the start of the season is definitely in the cards for him, until we see him playing in spring training games, it is hard to push him up too far. That being said, once he is on the field, his ADP could rise 25+ spots or more.  

 

Top 200 Players Falling

Dominic Smith (-21.28)- The fall of Dom Smith in the ADP with the concerns he will lose playing time without a DH in the National league. However, I believe (as do recent rumors) that the DH will return in the NL this year. His StatCast data was great with an xBA of .304, a barrel percentage of 13.3% and a hard hit percentage of 46.7%. He’s a good bet for 25+ homers and a decent average with the multi-positional eligibility. 

Ryan Mountcastle (-14.27)- Mountcastle continues to drop in the ADP due to some red flags in his profile. His O-Swing and swinging strike rate and while his BABIPs in the minors have usually been somewhat high, there is no way he can maintain what he did in his small sample in 2020. That being said, for a power hitter, he makes good contact and he has hit at every level through the minors and in his short sample in the Majors. His eligibility is nice and he has an everyday role in Baltimore, so I am beginning to really like the price. 

Miguel Sanó (-10.16)- Sano’s drop in ADP likely has to do with his streaky profile. He hit .284 with seven home runs in August and then six home runs with a .178 batting average in September. He has the ability to hit 40+ home runs in a full season, but you have to be able to cushion that batting average downside. 

 

Top 300 Players Rising

Ryan McMahon (+16.54)- With Arenado leaving town, McMahon seems like the likely beneficiary in terms of playing time. He could platoon there, but it would be the strong side of the platoon at worst. Best case scenario is that he gets full playing time as the cleanup hitter for the Rockies. He reportedly has retooled his swing which could allow him to get to pitches he was unable to last season. His positional eligibility is fantastic. There are a lot of reasons to start buying back in on the former top prospect that the Rockies were all in on coming into his disappointing 2020. 

 

Top 300 Players Falling

Jake Cronenworth (-48.41)- Cronenworth’s drop in ADP has everything to do with all the talent they have brought in this offseason. The signing of Ha-seong Kim and Jurickson Profar are definitely troubling, but I think he will find enough playing time as a super utility guy to return on the investment on a player going outside the top 200. 

Rowdy Tellez (-30.91)- Tellez is dropping for the same type of reason as Cronenworth, the addition of Marcus Semien. That being said, the Blue Jays are awfully right handed with the only other regular being Cavan Biggio, so he should get time on the strong side of a platoon. We know that there is a ton of power in the bat and he would be an injury away from being a full time player in this lineup, so he is worth the gamble if he continues to drop. 

 

First Base ADP Market Report: 2/18/2021
1/13/21-2/18/21 Player Team Position(s) 10/1/20-10/31/20 11/1/20-11/30/20 12/1/20-1/12/21 Change
14.74 Freddie Freeman ATL 1B 15 13.42 13.03 -1.71
17.52 Cody Bellinger LAD 1B, OF 16 14.46 15.83 -1.69
31.7 DJ LeMahieu FA 1B, 2B, 3B 28.75 27.04 32.73 1.03
42.74 Jose Abreu CWS 1B 34.5 33.77 35.6 -7.14
55.24 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR 1B 61.5 60.23 59.27 4.03
62.22 Pete Alonso NYM 1B 63.25 61.5 59.2 -3.02
67.93 Luke Voit NYY 1B 52.25 58.42 68.4 0.47
97.5 Matt Olson OAK 1B 85.5 91.35 96.2 -1.3
98.87 Paul Goldschmidt STL 1B 106 106.58 102.43 3.56
100.96 Max Muncy LAD 1B, 2B, 3B 104 97.58 98.7 -2.26
102.56 Anthony Rizzo CHC 1B 106 98.73 99.7 -2.86
110.22 Alec Bohm PHI 1B, 3B 106.5 106.35 101.2 -9.02
123.76 Mike Moustakas CIN 1B, 2B 133.25 128.92 126.47 2.71
125.31 Dominic Smith NYM 1B, OF 99 88.08 104.03 -21.28
141 Eric Hosmer SD 1B 138.5 135.46 137.2 -3.8
150.67 Josh Bell WAS 1B 180.75 187.27 178.97 28.3
170.94 Ryan Mountcastle BAL 1B, OF 149 138.92 156.67 -14.27
175.69 Rhys Hoskins PHI 1B 145.25 164.04 187.97 12.28
194.13 Jared Walsh LAA 1B 195 189.27 182.13 -12
194.15 Trey Mancini BAL 1B, OF 224.25 200 189.5 -4.65
196.28 Christian Walker ARZ 1B 176.25 182.23 193.07 -3.21
198.19 Miguel Sano MIN 1B 188.5 191.62 188.03 -10.16
201.31 Jake Cronenworth SD 1B, 2B, SS 160.75 157.69 152.9 -48.41
242.83 Ryan McMahon COL 1B, 2B, 3B 271.5 256.46 259.37 16.54
243.37 Hunter Dozier KC 1B, OF 232.75 242.15 232.63 -10.74
249.65 Jeimer Candelario DET 1B, 3B 226.5 244.62 242.87 -6.78
252.85 Yuli Gurriel HOU 1B 286.5 284.38 251.3 -1.55
266.8 Rowdy Tellez TOR 1B 283 284.73 235.9 -30.9
271.22 Carlos Santana KC 1B 334.75 320.69 275.27 4.05
300.8 Tommy La Stella OAK 1B, 2B 278.75 300.77 292.8 -8
310.33 Bobby Dalbec BOS 1B 244.5 258.27 285.83 -24.5
315.83 Andrew Vaughn CWS 1B 272 273 274.5 -41.33
316.65 Nate Lowe TEX 1B 351.25 398.58 312.43 -4.22
319.54 Jesus Aguilar MIA 1B 272.5 289.42 311.77 -7.77
325.8 Joey Votto CIN 1B 438.75 402.08 355.57 29.77
327.67 C.J. Cron DET 1B 285.25 348.65 292.7 -34.97
334.94 Wilmer Flores SF 1B, 2B 340.75 295.04 309.9 -25.04
336.54 Brandon Belt SF 1B 372.25 367.92 336.97 0.43
355.54 Evan White SEA 1B 388.25 378.62 353.47 -2.07
371.8 Garrett Cooper MIA 1B 345.75 359.08 344.17 -27.63
395 Colin Moran PIT 1B 444.75 450.15 423.57 28.57
399.02 Renato Nunez FA 1B 233.5 275.54 356.03 -42.99
408.7 Michael Chavis BOS 1B, 2B, OF 372 393.5 380.67 -28.03
425.8 Mike Brosseau TB 1B, 2B, 3B 440.5 426.31 409.77 -16.03
454.89 Josh Fuentes COL 1B 474.75 486.54 464.57 9.68
461.83 Marwin Gonzalez FA 1B, 2B, 3B, OF 471.75 467.85 466.77 4.94
490.89 Ji-Man Choi TB 1B 560 590.23 501.5 10.61
494.57 Pat Valaika BAL 1B, 2B, SS 575 542.62 506.23 11.66
535.37 Mitch Moreland SD 1B 558 522.46 535.03 -0.34
536.43 Asdrubal Cabrera FA 1B, 3B 472.25 471.19 511.7 -24.73
571.93 Jake Bauers CLE 1B, OF 739.75 727.88 615.03 43.1
576.28 Travis Shaw TOR 1B, 3B 435.5 466.58 537.7 -38.58
594.22 Pavin Smith ARZ 1B 600 604.35 537.47 -56.75
608.31 Jedd Gyorko MLW 1B, 3B 631.75 611.19 592.37 -15.94
624.33 Lewin Diaz MIA 1B 624.75 618.58 588.7 -35.63
627.02 Danny Santana TEX 1B 452 506.38 539.97 -87.05
638.07 Albert Pujols LAA 1B 712.25 681.12 666.07 28
656.56 Jake Lamb FA 1B, 3B 676.5 652.65 618.73 -37.83
667.54 Seth Brown OAK 1B 707 744.77 701.37 33.83
688.15 Seth Beer ARZ 1B NA NA 608.97 -79.18
691 Mike Ford NYY 1B 673 720.12 681.83 -9.17
693.93 Ronald Guzman TEX 1B 621 592.42 686 -7.93
713.87 Ryan McBroom KC 1B 599.5 674.27 710.7 -3.17
738.13 Sherten Apostel TEX 1B NA NA 711.63 -26.5
738.96 Matt Beaty LAD 1B 746 NA 744.67 5.71
739.11 Todd Frazier FA 1B, 3B NA 736.5 727.13 -11.98
739.17 Ryan O’Hearn KC 1B NA 738.04 730.57 -8.6
744.7 Triston Casas BOS 1B NA NA 736.47 -8.23
748.98 Chris Davis BAL 1B NA NA 744 -4.98
749.28 Jose Osuna PIT 1B, OF 733.25 741.58 NA NA
750.67 Daniel Murphy FA 1B 690.5 737.27 734.13 -16.54
750.74 Pablo Sandoval ATL 1B -750.74
750.8 Will Craig PIT 1B 745.75 NA 742.4 -8.4
NA Phil Gosselin PHI 1B, OF NA 749.38 NA NA
NA Eric Thames FA 1B NA 739.08 739.9 NA
SOURCE: https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
ADP is from NFBC Draft Champions leagues





Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as random topics that float into his juvenile brain. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, and a fantasy football and baseball writer for Fantasy Alarm. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

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Villargh
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Villargh

Thanks for the update, Justin. Looks like even a better jump than Hoskins is Josh Bell, up 28.30 into the top 150. Is that just the move to Washington?