Unhinged addicts?

I’m sure 99.99% of the population (probably a major under estimation) would agree with this description. The deal is that if anyone is even considering reading an article about ADP (average draft position) in November, they’re probably close to the 0.01%. Right now, the NFBC ADP is the only available draft data from multiple drafts. I decided to dive in and find out who these “people” are who anchor valuations and affect the decisions of future drafters.

The reason many people put more faith in this ADP is that there is decent money on the line ($150 min buy-in). The managers aren’t going to blow off the last half of the draft and are continuously looking for an edge.

The most important factor to remember is that this ADP is for draft-and-hold leagues where there are no in-season adds. Since they are 5×5 Roto leagues, scarce resources (Saves and Steals) will be pushed up. Additionally, the safety of regular contributors will have a priority of upside plays.

To run the study, I found the participants in 22 of the leagues so far. Here is a breakdown of the results and some of my thoughts.

Starting off, here is the number of teams drafted by the same manager.

Of the 330 teams, there are just 172 unique managers with almost three-fourths of the teams managed by owners with multiple teams. It means that 85 people have a major influence on player valuations. But do they really? Putting the number in those terms, I don’t see a problem. If the 85 people were limited to just one league, that means there would be ADP from six 15-team leagues (a little number fudging). Six leagues is a reasonable starting point for November valuation discussions.

Now, the six managers (4% of all managers) who have drafted five or more teams have a total of 37 teams (11% of all teams). It’s possible that a single manager’s opinion could push up or down a certain player. This take is not just unique to the NFBC and is a major factor on every platform that does rankings. When mainstream sights host their mock drafts, most of the time, it’s the same website participants in each one. On top of that, a website influencer’s “correct” opinions will then be baked into the initial player rankings thereby anchoring the website’s ADP.

One other issue I’ve seen levied against using NFBC drafts is that it’s full of industry analysts/content creators and their opinions. I went through all the managers and spotted that 12 of the 172 managers (7%) are in the fantasy industry. They had 22 total teams, again 7% of the total. The number drafting is probably a bit higher since some people may use a pseudonym but the number stays under 10%. Any industry influence is almost non-existent and the leagues are full of dedicated fantasy managers wanting to get a way-too-early start on the 2023 draft season. Again, unhinged addicts.

I’m sure everyone has seen this graphic on Baseball Savant but if not, go take a look.

This may be the most trusted but misleading graphic used in (fantasy) baseball analysis. It was all over Twitter today with the Teoscar Hernández trade to show off his greatness. Read the rest of this entry »

I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP. Here are the previous editions:

• Eflin, Garrett, Carrasco, & Gore
• Wesneski, Clevinger, Quantrill, & Steele
• Walker, Pérez, Manaea, & Bello
• Megill, Stripling, Jameson, & Civale

Garrett Whitlock (300 ADP)

With the recent news that the 26-year-old righty will be in the Red Sox rotation, I decided to take a look since his ADP is just at 300. Read the rest of this entry »

• Masataka Yoshida should be posted in the next week or two.

Sources: Masataka Yoshida, two-time batting champ in NPB, likely to be posted by Orix Buffaloes in the next 2 weeks. Details are still being discussed, but it’s becoming increasingly likely that Yoshida, a left fielder, will play next season in @MLB. 🇯🇵 @MLBNetwork

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) November 8, 2022

• Teams are interested in Seth Lugo as a starter.

Right-hander Seth Lugo reached free agency for the first time in his career last week and has already drawn plenty of early interest as teams begin charting their offseason gameplan. Will Sammon of The Athletic reports that more than a dozen teams — but not the Mets, yet — have reached out to Lugo. That shouldn’t be surprising for a consistently solid setup man, but what’s more interesting is Sammon’s note that some of those clubs have expressed interest in putting Lugo back into a rotation.

For his career, Lugo has a 4.35 ERA, 8.0 K/9, and 1.34 WHIP as a starter. Last season, the 32-year-old threw four different pitches. Read the rest of this entry »

I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP (since October 1st). Here are the previous editions:

• Eflin, Garrett, Carrasco, & Gore
• Wesneski, Clevinger, Quantrill, & Steele
• Walker, Pérez, Manaea, & Bello

Tylor Megill (310 ADP)

I’m a little surprised to see Megill being taken so early because of his 5.13 ERA, three IL trips (biceps, shoulder, COVID), and his final six appearances coming as a reliever. Fantasy managers must be concentrating on his 3.35 xFIP, 9.7 K/9, and 96-mph fastball. Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Astros

• Martín Maldonado played with a broken hand for over a month.

Here’s what makes it more impressive: Maldonado has been playing with a broken bone in his right hand since the Orioles’ Joey Krehbiel hit him with a pitch on Aug. 28. He said after the Astros’ 4-1 elimination of the Phillies that he also will undergo surgery to repair a sports hernia next week.

Up until the injury, he hit a .591 OPS. From then on, it was a .642 OPS. He really can’t hit. Read the rest of this entry »

I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP (since October 1st). Here are the previous editions:

• Eflin, Garrett, Carrasco, & Gore
• Wesneski, Clevinger, Quantrill, & Steele

Taijuan Walker (305 ADP)

The 30-year-old Walker is a fine, steady pitcher with a career 3.89 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and an 8.1 K/9. He hasn’t deviated from those numbers over his career including this season’s 3.49 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 7.6 K/9.

There doesn’t seem to be any sign of his skills degrading. While his fastball velocity was down compared to 2021 (94.2 mph to 93.5 mph) it was still higher than in both 2019 (93.2) and 2020 (93.3). His 2.6 BB/9 was his lowest since 2016 (2.5 BB/9). His first and second-half K%-BB% was almost unchanged (13.2% to 13.6%).

He’s a nice stable accumulator, especially if he’s on a decent team, like the Mets last season, where he can end up with 12 Wins again. Since he’s a free agent, the team he signs with will determine most of his 2023 value. There is just not much upside or downside with him.

Read the rest of this entry »

Free Agents

• Matt Harvey is going to try to come back … again.

Right-hander Matt Harvey underwent knee surgery last month, agent Scott Boras tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post. It isn’t clear whether the procedure is expected to affect his readiness for Spring Training, but Boras tells Sherman that Harvey plans to attempt to make it back to the majors next year.

American League

Guardians

• There is a decent chance Josh Naylor ends up in a platoon.

The same could be true of Naylor. He clubbed 20 home runs and doesn’t turn 26 until June. His production could be hurt by a future platoon role, but could he get to 25 home runs next season? It doesn’t seem unrealistic, particularly since only one of his home runs came against a lefty.

He has a career .512 OPS against lefties and a .856 OPS against righties. Read the rest of this entry »

I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP (since October 1st). Here are the previous editions:

• Eflin, Garrett, Carrasco, & Gore

Hayden Wesneski (302 ADP)

It looks like the 24-year-old righty isn’t going to be a secret like I hoped. He shoved in four starts with a 1.85 ERA (3.87 xFIP), 0.95 WHIP, 49% GB%, and 8.1 K/9. While he just threw 33 major league innings, he threw a combined 143 IP when his AAA numbers are included. Read the rest of this entry »

• Kodai Senga and Shintaro Fujinami, both from Japan, are likely to sign with a major league club this offseason.

Right-hander Kodai Senga is planning to trigger the opt-out in his contract with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks and become a free agent, according to a report from Sankei Sports (Japanese language link). Senga and the club agreed to a five-year extension back in December, though that contract contained an opt-out clause after the first season. Senga will be a free agent and won’t be subject to the MLB-NPB posting system. It was reported in August that Senga planned to pursue MLB opportunities this winter and it now seems he will follow through on those plans.

and

The Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball are going to make right-hander Shintaro Fujinami available to MLB clubs this offseason via the posting system, according to a report from Kyodo News. Back in September, reports from Japan (Japanese link from Sponichi Annex and English link from The Japan Times) relayed his desire to attempt the move to North America. It now seems that the club will grant him his wish.

Here are the ZiPS projections for both.

Senga is definitely the more interesting of the two.

• I’ve continued to update the hitters who played through an injury list. Read the rest of this entry »