Author Archive: Jeff Zimmerman

I thought it was going to be a slow week for bidding, but a few pitchers have seen their ownership jump quite a bit. Also, there is some movement with a couple of closers going down with injuries.

The projection guidelines:

• The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
• The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
• The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
• Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.
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Angels

• Justin Upton is back and has slotted in the cleanup spot. Normally, the cleanup spot has been reserved for Albert Pujols so some kinks need to still be worked out.
• Tommy La Stella’s spirit has returned to reclaim his body from Babe Ruth and has hit .200/.238/.425 over the past two weeks.
• Luis Rengifo (.649) will likely head to the minors once Andrelton Simmons returns from the IL. He’ll probably not be missed.
• I didn’t expect Shohei Ohtani to steal much to protect his elbow but he does have three steals in his last eight games.

Astros

• The lineup is in flux with Jose Altuve returning from the IL and the last three games being in an NL park with the pitcher batting.
• Altuve hit third in the lineup in his first game back.
• Tyler White has heated up ( .310/.474/.586) over the last two weeks. When Carlos Correa returns, it’ll be interesting to see if White (.695 OPS) or Yuli Gurriel (.593 OPS) will take over the first base duties.

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I’m been writing this column since the season’s start and today I ask, “What more should I change about its content?”. I’m sure everyone would like more of everything. More players. More on each player. More sources besides the NFBC. If I do more, what would you like to see less of? Just let me know.

As of the players listed below, they are the players dropped in 10 or more of the 38 NFBC Main Event leagues (a few extras added in).

Demotion

• Derek Fisher (25): With Yordan Alvarez being promoted and the big three on the IL returning, there was no room for him in the majors.
• Willians Astudillo (11): The fan-favorite can’t help his owners in the minors.
• Brendan Rodgers (11): The highly touted prospect was demoted after only hitting .246/.300/.277 in the majors.
• Cesar Puello (10): With Justin Upton returning from the IL, he expendable. And now on the Marlins.

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For most people, today is Father’s Day. For those who have an NFBC league, it’s Yordan Alvarez Day. The bids for him this week will be off the charts. It’s not just him who’s available and with many owners spending time with their families, there should be deals everywhere.

The projection guidelines:

• The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
• The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
• The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
• Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.

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Angels

• Luis Rengifo (.597 OPS) and Wilfredo Tovar (.422 OPS) are manning the two infield positions while batting eighth and ninth.
• Kevan Smith (.284//.376/.419) is hitting better than Jonathan Lucroy (.232/.300/.368) but is only starting twice a week.
• Cesar Puello (vs LHP) and Brian Goodwin (vs RHP) are platooning in left field.

Astros

• The Astros lineup remains in flux with the three stars out and the recent promotion of Yordan Alvarez. They’ve also demoted Derek Fisher. For the last two games, they’ve used the same lineup with Josh Reddick leading off, Alvarez batting fifth, and somehow Tyler White is still batting eighth.
• When the big three return, I expect White, Tony Kemp, and Jake Marisnick to be benched.

Athletics

• The lineup is set with a Chad Pinder and Robbie Grossman splitting time in left field.

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Last season at BaseballHQ ($$), I found the expected results for hitters returning from Tommy John surgery (TJS). The research was completed with traditional stats and no StatCast information was utilized. The reason was that only one regular, Christian Vazquez, had Tommy John surgery since there was publicly available StatCast data. That changed when five hitters had the surgery last year. With the return of Didi Gregorius, all have made it to the majors. Sadly the early returns are unspectacular with Corey Seager and Shohei Ohtani struggling.

In his first three seasons, Seager posted a .876 OPS but past two seasons it has only been a .793 OPS. I included last season because he struggled while trying to play through the injury. For Ohtani, he posted a .925 OPS last year and just a .742 OPS this season. These values line up with the original TJS article.

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Instead of call-ups, I’m finding most of my gems in last week’s trash. Here are the players dropped the most in the 38 NFBC Main Event leagues

Demoted

• Corbin Martin (25): A 5.59 BB/9 and a matching ERA means he is off to the minors.
• Devin Smeltzer (23): With Michael Pineda off the DL, Smeltzer and his 89-mph fastball are back in the minors.
• Willians Astudillo (18): There is just no room for this fan favorite on the team. Marwin Gonzalez is a perfect utility player while Mitch Garver (1.103 OPS) and Jason Castro (.933 OPS) can handle the catching duties.
• Daniel Mengden (13): Mengden is an instance of an owner trying to get a jump on a possible two-start week against Tampa and Seattle. Then he went out in his one start and allowed six runs in just over two innings of work.
• Garrett Hampson (11): He’s back in AAA since he just can’t find his footing in the majors (.186/.231/.258)

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I feel the fantasy baseball season is at the part of the season where few “new” call-ups happen. Instead, it’s players we’ve already known about coming into and out of playing time. Garrett Cooper has been around for a couple of weeks but just now he’s seeing his ownership jump. I’ve noticed many of the movers are on 2nd or 3rd division teams. Owners are a little slow at knowing how the playing time shakes out on these sub-.500 teams. Bargains can be found in them.

The guidelines:

• The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
• The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
• The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
• Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.

Read the rest of this entry »