Week 15 FAAB Projections

by
June 29, 2019

It’s closer’s week. Several closers are hurt and/or struggling. Also, the trade deadline is approaching, so some more jobs will open up.

The projection guidelines:

  • The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
  • The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
  • The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
  • Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.

2019 Week 15 Hitter FAAB Projections
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Max Schrock 2B | STL 0% 1% 1% $16
Matt Beaty 1B | LAD 1% 4% 3% $17
Alex Dickerson LF | SF 1% 4% 3% $17
Luis Arraez 2B | MIN 2% 4% 2% $17
Adley Rutschman C | BAL 3% 5% 2% $17
Mike Yastrzemski RF | SF 3% 5% 2% $17
Will Smith C | LAD 7% 10% 3% $18
J.P. Crawford SS | SEA 8% 17% 9% $25
Dominic Smith 1B | NYM 8% 13% 5% $20
Todd Frazier 3B | NYM 9% 13% 4% $19
Bobby Bradley 1B | CLE 10% 31% 21% $57
Jason Kipnis 2B | CLE 10% 19% 9% $26
Eric Sogard SS | TOR 11% 20% 9% $26
Garrett Hampson SS | COL 12% 14% 2% $19
Rowdy Tellez 1B | TOR 13% 15% 2% $19
Kevin Pillar CF | SF 15% 21% 6% $24
Pedro Severino C | BAL 17% 20% 3% $22
Freddy Galvis SS | TOR 21% 24% 3% $24
Kevin Newman SS | PIT 22% 30% 8% $31
Jo Adell CF | LAA 24% 25% 1% $24
Francisco Mejia C | SD 25% 34% 9% $35
Danny Santana LF | TEX 27% 38% 11% $41
Carson Kelly C | ARI 28% 30% 2% $27
Brian Anderson RF | MIA 31% 35% 4% $31
Chris Taylor SS | LAD 33% 52% 19% $72
Roberto Perez C | CLE 34% 38% 4% $34
Bo Bichette SS | TOR 35% 37% 2% $32
Willie Calhoun LF | TEX 44% 46% 2% $41
Christian Walker 1B | ARI 46% 48% 2% $43
  • It’s no surprise that Bobby Bradley is this week’s top prize, but the bidding may be a little tempered. After hitting 24 homers in AAA, he hasn’t transferred that power to the majors. In 19 PA, he has 8 strikeouts. Strikeouts were going to be an issue with him after having a 32% K% in the minors this year.
  • Kevin Newman has been slowly moving up the ownership ranks. He should be owned in most formats at this point.
  • Owners should have been picking up Chris Taylor last week after the news of Corey Seager being out for a while. Now they’ll really need to pay up.
  • J.P. Crawford has a .319 AVG in 133 PA. It’s not sustainable but in leagues where everyone is owned, he’s a worthwhile addition.
2019 Week 15 Pitcher FAAB Projections
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Austin Voth SP | WAS 0% 12% 12% $20
Austin Adams RP | SEA 0% 3% 3% $24
Adrian Houser RP | MIL 1% 5% 4% $15
Glenn Sparkman RP | KC 2% 5% 3% $15
Jesse Chavez RP | TEX 3% 14% 11% $19
Daniel Mengden SP | OAK 4% 14% 10% $19
Bryse Wilson RP | ATL 6% 11% 5% $16
Deivi Garcia SP | NYY 6% 9% 3% $15
Liam Hendriks RP | OAK 11% 61% 50% $234
Michael Lorenzen RP | CIN 11% 18% 7% $29
Vince Velasquez SP | PHI 13% 16% 3% $16
Dinelson Lamet SP | SD 14% 18% 4% $16
Homer Bailey SP | KC 15% 28% 13% $23
Trent Thornton RP | TOR 17% 21% 4% $16
Emilio Pagan RP | TB 18% 24% 6% $29
Brandon Workman RP | BOS 19% 26% 7% $30
Andrew Miller RP | STL 19% 21% 2% $26
Logan Allen SP | SD 21% 59% 38% $75
Scott Oberg RP | COL 22% 26% 4% $28
Ariel Jurado SP | TEX 24% 26% 2% $17
Adbert Alzolay SP | CHC 27% 54% 27% $48
Tyler Mahle SP | CIN 27% 32% 5% $18
Brendan McKay SP | TB 30% 58% 28% $51
Michael Wacha SP | STL 30% 34% 4% $18
Roenis Elias RP | SEA 31% 46% 15% $50
CC Sabathia SP | NYY 31% 42% 11% $24
Adam Plutko SP | CLE 40% 46% 6% $22
Shawn Kelley RP | TEX 41% 44% 3% $33
John Gant SP | STL 42% 55% 13% $50
Tanner Roark SP | CIN 42% 48% 6% $22
Ian Kennedy SP | KC 43% 53% 10% $43
Carlos Martinez SP | STL 44% 68% 24% $88
Taylor Rogers RP | MIN 49% 55% 6% $39
  • Brendan McKay has been on fantasy radars since he was drafted out of college, so his ownership was a little more inflated before the call-up. His price may go through the roof after he threw six innings of shutout ball against the Rangers.
  • Logan Allen and Adbert Alzolay were speculative buys last week. Now they are must own.
  • There always seems to be a handful of weeks when closers dominate and this week is the perfect mix of injuries, struggles, and the looming trade deadline. A 50% point ownership jump by Liam Hendricks leads the charge. In most deeper leagues, he was probably picked up last week but now he’s a must own in leagues with Saves. Here are how I rank the closers listed. The top nine are must-own in any league which counts Saves.
  1. Shawn Kelley
  2. Taylor Rogers
  3. Ian Kennedy
  4. Carlos Martinez
  5. Liam Hendricks
  6. Emilio Pagan
  7. Roenis Elias
  8. Scott Oberg
  9. Brandon Workman
  10. …
  11. Michael Lorenzen
  12. John Gant
  13. …
  14. Andrew Miller
  15. Austin Adams
2018 Week 15 NFBC Main Event FAAB Bids
Add Avg Bid Leagues (34)
Nick Kingham $44 5
Wily Peralta $33 34
Will Smith $30 28
Hunter Renfroe $30 7
Tyler Clippard $27 26
Kike Hernandez $26 9
Roberto Osuna $25 11
Keon Broxton $23 27
Ervin Santana $23 5
Matt Harvey $23 11
Brad Keller $22 8
Max Fried $21 25
Wilmer Flores $18 10
Dereck Rodriguez $18 14
Brad Miller $16 17
Tim Beckham $15 10
Jorge Bonifacio $13 12
Sandy Alcantara $12 9
Chris Davis $11 7
Ryan Yarbrough $10 11
Jose Bautista $10 7
Chris Iannetta $10 6
Pablo Lopez $10 6
John Gant $9 9
Tyler Anderson $9 9
Seung-Hwan Oh $8 11
Lonnie Chisenhall $7 9
Austin Slater $7 5
Aledmys Diaz $7 10
Harrison Bader $7 8
David Fletcher $6 6
Mark Canha $6 5
Kole Calhoun $6 5
Greg Holland $5 8
Mike Fiers $5 14
Austin Romine $4 6
Andrew Suarez $4 5
Elias Diaz $3 9
Chris Bassitt $3 5
Lou Trivino $3 7
David Dahl $2 6

 

2019 Week 14 NFBC Main Event FAAB Bids
Add Avg Bid Leagues (38)
Zac Gallen $117 38
Ross Stripling $75 8
Liam Hendriks $64 37
Emilio Pagan $39 11
Roenis Elias $38 8
Adbert Alzolay $30 38
Logan Allen $29 36
John Gant $26 9
Brendan Rodgers $26 11
Garrett Hampson $22 15
Blake Parker $20 9
Rowdy Tellez $19 10
Francisco Mejia $18 29
Michael Wacha $17 8
CC Sabathia $15 5
Jose Martinez $14 5
Clint Frazier $14 5
Will Smith $13 6
Adam Plutko $12 26
Jose Peraza $12 5
J.P. Crawford $11 25
Elieser Hernandez $11 14
Michael Lorenzen $10 27
Aaron Civale $10 15
Mac Williamson $9 5
Tommy Milone $9 5
Dinelson Lamet $9 5
Todd Frazier $9 7
Jason Kipnis $9 15
Alex Wood $9 12
Willians Astudillo $8 20
Vince Velasquez $8 25
Cheslor Cuthbert $8 11
Adrian Houser $8 17
Christin Stewart $8 5
Trent Thornton $7 7
Tyler White $7 13
Matt Beaty $7 20
Pedro Severino $7 7
Eric Sogard $7 22
Mike Yastrzemski $7 11
Chris Martin $6 9
Alex Dickerson $6 16
Brandon Dixon $6 5
Jesse Chavez $6 21
Homer Bailey $6 13
Tom Murphy $5 12
Drew Pomeranz $4 13
Bryse Wilson $4 15
Ryan Brasier $4 10
Anthony Swarzak $3 7
Travis d’Arnaud $3 5
Wade LeBlanc $3 5
Adam Wainwright $3 6
Roman Quinn $3 8
Manuel Margot $2 5
Mitch Keller $2 5
Aaron Bummer $2 5

 





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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Jimmember
4 years ago

I have never played fantasy but I usually read the posts because I learn about the players. Now, will somebody please tell me why the 2018 numbers are included here. Thanks,

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Jeff Zimmermanmember
4 years ago
Reply to  Jim

I included them for owners to have some more comparisons to base their bidding off of. Last year, the top closers this week went for around $30, so they might again.

2