Closer Rankings (7/2/19)
From now until the trade deadline at the month’s end, I will be publishing a weekly post on overall closer rankings. The focus is not the best closers, but the combination of talent, opportunity, the chance of being traded, other bullpen arms, and mainly accumulating Saves. These rankings could change on a dime but at least they provide some structure for speculating on Saves.
I find the rumor mill boring but usually where there is smoke, there is fire. For that reason, I’m basing the chances of being traded on MLBTraderumors and The Athletic’s most likely traded lists. If they are wrong, I’m wrong.
Here are the ranks so let the complaining begin.
| Rank | Tier | Name | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Studs (won’t be replaced) | Craig Kimbrel | |
| 2 | Kenley Jansen | ||
| 3 | Josh Hader | ||
| 4 | Roberto Osuna | ||
| 5 | Aroldis Chapman | ||
| 6 | Brad Hand | ||
| 7 | Carlos Martinez | Tough to place, could be down at #18 | |
| 8 | Studs who may be traded | Kirby Yates | |
| 9 | Edwin Diaz | ||
| 10 | Will Smith | ||
| 11 | Felipe Vazquez | ||
| 12 | Decent but could add a stud | Sean Doolittle | |
| 13 | Hector Neris | ||
| 14 | Shawn Kelley | ||
| 15 | Hansel Robles | ||
| 16 | Taylor Rogers | ||
| 17 | Greg Holland | ||
| 18 | OK and likely to be traded | Ken Giles | |
| 19 | Shane Greene | ||
| 20 | Alex Colome | ||
| 21 | Sergio Romo | ||
| 22 | Ian Kennedy | ||
| 23 | Uhhh … they have a job for now | Raisel Iglesias | Lorenzen may already have the role |
| 24 | Scott Oberg | ||
| 25 | Emilio Pagan | ||
| 26 | Luke Jackson | ||
| 27 | Liam Hendriks | Treinen and he could change spots this week | |
| 28 | Brandon Workman | ||
| 29 | Mychal Givens | ||
| 30 | Roenis Elias | ||
| 31 | Knocking on the door for a job | Blake Treinen | |
| 32 | Nathan Eovaldi | ||
| 33 | Michael Lorenzen | ||
| 34 | Hunter Strickland | Could close once off the IL | |
| 35 | Joe Jimenez | ||
| 36 | Kyle Crick | ||
| 37 | A.J. Minter | I believe Atlanta will add a closer which limits his value | |
| 38 | Craig Stammen | ||
| 39 | Tony Watson | ||
| 40 | Wade Davis | ||
| 41 | Jose Alvarado | ||
| 42 | Diego Castillo | ||
| 43 | Top of line if the closer is traded | Aaron Bummer | |
| 44 | Nick Anderson | ||
| 45 | Joe Biagini | ||
| 46 | Reyes Moronta | ||
| 47 | Stud backups with good ratios | Chris Martin | Gets some Saves |
| 48 | Ryan Pressly | ||
| 49 | John Gant | ||
| 50 | Ty Buttrey | ||
| 52 | Adam Ottavino | ||
| 53 | Dart throws | Matt Barnes | |
| 54 | Trevor May | ||
| 55 | Fernando Rodney | ||
| 56 | Jose Leclerc | He could be higher, a tough situation to guage | |
| 57 | Miguel Castro | ||
| 58 | Sam Dyson | ||
| 59 | Daniel Hudson | ||
| 60 | Amir Garrett | ||
| 61 | Richard Bleier | ||
| 62 | Kevin McCarthy |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Hector Neris?
Added him and Eovaldi
#13
Pagan had one save in the month Alvarado was out. Alvarado>Pagan. Curious about Carlos Martinez being in the stud category. Sounds like Eovaldi may deserve a spot on this list with yesterday’s news.
Agree on Martinez. Until they definitively prove it’s either him or Gant, I figure it’s something like 60/40 Martinez versus Gant, and his value needs to reflect the fact that we don’t actually know he’s the closer yet. That said, I suspect his placement at #7 is in part due to the fact that he fits neatly into the category of guys not likely to be traded. Is there really anyone who would trade Yates or Vazquez for Martinez?
Vazquez is probably ahead of Will Smith, m.j ore because he’s less likely to be traded, and if he is it’s probably going to be to a team planning for him to close, whereas I think Smith may well end up setting up for someone.
Also agree on Alvarado. He’s still ahead of Pagan in my mind.
I should have added this originally — I apologize if my post came off as critical. I greatly appreciate the effort on these types of articles, which have to be a beast to write. Thanks!
I think Martinez will end up with a lot of multi-inning appearances a la Josh Hader that will goose his value and make up for losing out on some saves.
Brandon Workman? Diego Castillo?
Take a closer look at Britton. Legit terrible this year. Don’t just judge by the ERA.
I knew it was bad but I didn’t know it was 6 .6 K/9 and 5 BB/9 bad
didnt want the yanks to resign him, the k-bb% was terrible. i understand the gb% and all but not worth that type of money imo
He’ll be just fine as a closer, but I still think there is a scenario where CMart ends up back in the rotation. The Cards’ starting pitching has been . . . .maybe not dreadful, but far short of what you’d want from a contender and the advanced metrics like FIP, xFIP and SIERA say they’ve been quite a bit worse than their actual results.
Since he missed the start of the year the Cards were gentle on CMart and in his 1st 8 appearances he only threw more than 12 pitches twice and never more than 21and never went more than 1 inning. Since then , he has pitched more than 1 inning in 5 of his last 6 appearances throwing at least 29 pitches in all the multi-inning appearance ramping all the way up to 41 pitches and 2.2 IP in his last outing
Note on Doolittle – at 34 IP this would match his highest IP ever (6 years ago, 69IP), while over the last 3 years he’s been on the DL 160 days. Worth a note I think, as a betting man. You portrayed the Red Sox perfectly except Eovaldi seems not so much knocking on the door as sending a telegram just to ensure nothing resolves in the Sox pen. Am I interpreting “top of line” correctly, that these are the guys you see getting the job if their team’s closer leaves? While less dire than Sox because the stakes are so low the SF situation most confusing with one knocking on the door, another top of line in case of trade and a third throwing darts. But some truths are hard to bear. Appreciated other writer’s color on C Martinez – still suspense there.
Kimbrel at #1 seems premature.
Jeff, is Luke Jackson in the “meh” category based on expected performance or the expectation that he will get bumped? His peripherals seem a lot better than everyone else in that tier.
I’m really surprised to see Ken Giles down in the “OK” list. Dude’s 1.03 FIP leads the majors and his strikeout rate and K-BB% are both 2nd only to Hader. Is it the recent injury that bumps him down out of the “studs who may be traded” tier?
p.s. This is a great feature, btw.
Yeah…Giles REALLY stood out to me…seems misplaced by a lot. I know that Jays often get overlooked, but come on Jeff!
Among the 459 “qualified” relievers the last 10 years (100 IP min), GIles is:
– 25th in ERA at 2.68
– 4th in FIP at 2.25 (behind only Aroldis, Kimbrel and Jansen)
– 12th in xFIP
– 12th in SIERA
– 12th in K/9
– 10th in K-BB%
– 13th in WAR (despite having barely half the innings of a lot of guys ahead of him)
Giles certainly had his issues with some very visible meltdowns, but there is no denying that the guy has been one of the better relief pitchers the last 10 years. . . .
Some of Giles’ use is just Jays setting him up to be the most valuable trade asset imaginable. His DL stint coincided with the trip to Houston, no doubt to avoid emotional stuff (plus he had already not pitched for a few days so they could backdate it). He was showcased for the Red Sox last night in a loss (non-save situation). I bet he pitches tonight again just to show he can still pitch back-to-back. If he gets traded, is he setup guy or closer? Thats the only reason to downgrade him.
+1. Surprised at Scott Oberg too, Sub 1 WHIP last 2 years, Over a K per inning. 1.90 ERA is way overstated per his FIP and his walks are up this year but to have him in the class has a job for now? Maybe I’m reading it wrong because Davis is closing not Oberg? Davis is brutal right now
Unsure if the top category is all interchangeable, or if it is a straight ranking. If it is a straight ranking, Kimbrel, Osuna and Jansen all seem too high.
Kimbrel is not the top closer in baseball. I do not think in their current version either Jansen or Kimbrel is top 5 tbh. Hader-Yates-Hand-Chapman-Vazquez-Smith are all better. Osuna seems too high as well, a closer who doesn’t strike out a lot of guys, and is massively outperforming his Xfip again. Unsure what warranted his inclusion at the top, and to have him one spot over Chapman seems criminal (edit, didn’t even mean to do that!) when Chapman has been basically Kimbrel without the signs of regression.
Why kimbrel ahead of chapman? Chapman is having another sub 2 era year while kimbrel had a solid but still slight down year and missed half of the season this year so we don’t know much yet (obviously you can’t hold his 13 era after 2 IP against him as it is almost no sample).
Both play for winning clubs so this shouldn’t make a difference.
Hunter Strickland is being very shady about his injuries. It started with his “back” in early spring, became a right lat at the beginning of the year, then suddenly he refers to pressure on his tendon. He has taken platelet enriched plasma twice already. To me, its UCL all along. If he gets surgery, he’s gone obviously but if he doesn’t, he will not be effective. I think Elias keeps the job.
Will they trade Elias anyway? I think current cheapskate ownership will highly value cheap controllable asset more than most contenders, so i think he stays. Any kid they plug in there is going to start getting saves and shoot up in value in arbitration, so Elias is the cheapest option for the next few years. Only the Rays would value that, and they’re not gonna trade for a closer. Probably.
The other thing is, closers are more valuable, so leaving Elias as closer enhances his value. It would enhance Strckland’s too, but who in baseball is gonna pay for Strickland?