When I decided to use Amir Garrett yesterday, I figured he would give me between negative five and 25 points. He totally neg’d me. Fortunately, Jordy Mercer hit an easily predicted home run. Yeah, right.
AGENDA
David Ross finished second place on Dancing with the Stars apparently. There are lots of people congratulating him:
Congrats to @D_Ross3 on an epic @DancingABC run!
Thank you for representing the #Cubs and @MLB with such class! #TeamLadyAndTheGramp #DWTS pic.twitter.com/iL4GAXBLL5
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) May 24, 2017
However, here at the Roto Riteup, we prescribe to this mantra:
Apologies for the lack of a post yesterday but at least I didn’t miss much. Mark Melancon recorded a save, his ninth on the year and the third since his return from the DL. Of more interest regarding the Giants and Melancon would be the Giants being sellers at the deadline. They just signed Melancon to a deal this offseason but if they hit the reset button, a team in need of relief help could use his services. Washington traded for Melancon last year and although they elected to let him walk, maybe they make a move for him again. In other Monday news, Ken Giles saved his 12th game securing the win for Chris Devenski who threw 2.2 scoreless for Houston. Jim Johnson (9), Bud Norris (9) and Dellin Betances (3) all notched saves as well.
Onto Tuesday…
• Carl Edwards Jr. has been seeing the eighth inning of late and I’m going to bump him up to the grid. The Cubs may not have an obvious set up man but they have plenty of solid options with Hector Rondon and Koji Uehara back there along with Edwards. Uehara is still effective with a 3.45/2.14/3.60 ERA/FIP/xFIP line, but a 42 year old with a 17.5% HR/FB% isn’t the most reliable option, so I’ve moved him off of the grid. It’s possible, and maybe even likely, that the Cubs pick up an additional reliever at the deadline that replaces Rondon and Edwards in the pecking order, but for now we’re going with Edwards and Rondon behind Wade Davis.
Today’s chat transcript, starting with Sam Travis before moving on to players I like less than Yonder Alonso.
| 3:45 |
: Every time I open the chat early, it always amazes me how quickly I start getting questions.
|
| 3:45 |
: Took 10 seconds
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| 3:46 |
: The new thing of the hour is Sam Travis. He’s joining the Red Sox.
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| 3:46 |
: I haven’t looked into why he’s joining the team – seemingly HanRam and Moreland are healthy enough to absorb all/most of the 1B/DH work
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| 3:47 |
: As for who he is as a player, I think he may have some initial contact issues before he figures things out. Some power, but less than you’d expect from a 1B. More speed than you’d expect, but still not much
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| 3:48 |
: Like I said, the history of high averages in the minors might not show up immediately.
|
On Friday the Blue Jays called up Anthony Alford. The move surprised me since he struggled in 2016 with a 29% K% in High-A. He was doing better in Double-A this season (17K%, .393 wOBA) but I figured he would follow a progressive advancement with a Tripe-A stint.
Here’s a quick dive into what we know about his possible production. First here are his available prospect grades.
| Source | Year | Batting | Power (Raw/Game) | Speed | Defense | Arm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanGraphs | 2017 | 40 | 60/50 | 70 | 55 | 40 |
| MLB | 2017 | 50 | 50 | 70 | 60 | 45 |
| MLB | 2016 | 60 | 45 | 70 | 60 | 45 |
| MLB | 2015 | 60 | 45 | 70 | 60 | 55 |
| BA | 2017 | 60 | 50 | 60 | 55 | 40 |
| BA | 2016 | 60 | 45 | 70 | 60 | 40 |
Back in early April, I wrote a Five Under 50% post in which I implored fantasy owners to invest in the likes of Nick Franklin and Dan Altavilla. I urged readers to steer clear of Marwin Gonzalez, and promised that Edwin Diaz’s job was as safe as they come.
Naturally, Franklin has a 38 wRC+, Altavilla has a 6.60 ERA, Gonzalez has a .419 wOBA, and Diaz is no longer the Mariners closer. Sorry about that.
Before you quit reading this post because, really, why should you trust me, just know that my predictions weren’t all terrible. I also forecasted success for Scott Schebler (.365 wOBA), Mark Reynolds (.419 wOBA), and Ryan Zimmerman (.469 wOBA), who have been among the best hitters in baseball this year.
Not every gamble will pay off. But when it does, it can transform a fantasy team. It’s been about a month and a half since my last Five Under 50% post, and with renewed confidence, I’m prepared to do it again now.
Below are five (actually seven; I cheated) players owned in less than 50% of Ottoneu leagues whom I think may be worth an add in most leagues. There’s no need to jealously yearn for these players later when you can win them now for pennies on the dollar.
1. Chris Taylor (2B/SS/3B; 39%) Read the rest of this entry »
The thing I envy most about professional baseball players? Getting four plate appearances every day.
AGENDA
Yesterday, I used my xHR/FB rate to validate which of the surprise HR/FB rate leaders appear to have legitimately enjoyed a power surge in the early going. Today, I’ll look at the surprising names closer to the bottom of the HR/FB rate leaderboard, all of whom are validated by shockingly low xHR/FB rate marks. Like for the leaders, this doesn’t necessarily mean it’s panic time if you’re an owner, but simply that it appears poor fortune has little to do with the power outage. The batter simply hasn’t been barreling it up like he typically has, for whatever reason.
I am not a fan of in-game interviews, but this one is amazing:
Interviewing a bird … We’ve now seen it all.
https://t.co/W3SACK6uQi pic.twitter.com/MSgk0TuiDh
— MLB (@MLB) May 21, 2017
For the third week in a row, we once again use Statcast’s Brls/BBE (barrels per batted ball event) as the primary component of my xHR/FB rate, to analyze hitter HR/FB rates. Today, I’ll use xHR/FB rate to validate some of the surprise HR/FB rate leaders. This doesn’t necessarily mean the hitter is going to sustain this pace — their Brls/BBE could certainly decline, and given that it’s likely quite high now, it probably will — but that what has happened so far looks like a legitimate power breakout, rather than a small sample fluke.