The Daily Grind: Back to Basics

When I decided to use Amir Garrett yesterday, I figured he would give me between negative five and 25 points. He totally neg’d me. Fortunately, Jordy Mercer hit an easily predicted home run. Yeah, right.

AGENDA

1. Back to Basics
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. Hitters to Use
5. SaberSim Says…
6. TDG Invitational Returns!

1. Back to Basics

Every year, I enter the season with a new strategy. Invariably, it doesn’t work out. This season, I was very focused on contrarian picks. I’ve even had some notable successes like a two homer game from Daniel Nava and a bunch of big pitcher days. However, when one bets upon the highly improbable, one is eventually left bereft of money.

For the next span of the season – whatever that means – I’ll be returning to the basics. That is, targeting good matchups for hitters at hitter parks and pitchers at pitcher parks. More, I won’t shy away from my favorite obvious picks even if I suspect ownership will be ridiculous. Sometimes it’s better to die on a horse of your own choosing.

For what it’s worth, that Mercer value pick was a return to these basics. SunTrust Park is looking like bombersville and the wind was blowing out. Even the non-contrarian approach requires a cheapie or two.

2. Weather Reports

Cleveland is looking wet tonight and Chicago may see showers too. The Battle of Ohio may require a doubleheader tomorrow. I think the Cubs game will play based on the current info.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Cleveland is doing another of their 6:10pm starts. They’re excluded from DFSery.

Early Slate: The early crew is rolling four deep. The pitching slate is ugly with Jose Berrios representing a must-play at just $7,400. He’s dazzled through two outings. This is what we expected to see when he fell on his face in 2016. Wishing I didn’t jump off the bandwagon with both feet. He claims using MLB baseballs in his minor league side sessions made the difference.

I’m wary of using Marcus Stroman versus a homertastic Brewers offense at Miller Park. He’s a high risk, high reward option since the Brewers are also strikeout prone. On the plus side, Stroman is homerless through his last three starts.

Three of Jose Quintana’s last five starts have been gems. The other two were… blah. Visiting the desert is always risky, even with A.J. Pollock on the shelf. At least the southpaw should mostly neutralize Jake Lamb.

Sonny Gray may be back. He’s showing his old penchant for ground balls and low BABIPs. In a tiny sample, the good results aren’t supported by his quality of contact splits. Too much hard contact and not enough soft contact.

Stack Targets: Randall Delgado, Matt Garza, Edinson Volquez, Chris Tillman

Main Slate: Chris Sale tops the charts. He hosts Martin Perez and the Rangers. It’s difficult to roster his $13,500 salary, but he’s earned it in all nine starts. He’ll cross the 100 strikeout threshold tonight. That’s a 300 strikeout pace!

The next tier down features Luis Severino, Rich Hill, Charlie Morton, and Kyle Hendricks. They’re all risky aces. Severino has a couple recent duds, and he’s also occasionally homer prone. The Royals are visiting Yankee Stadium. As we know, Hill is great. He’s also a risk for a short outing. The Dodgers are keen to avoid any blisters. I’ve used Morton for nearly every start this year, but he’s finally priced at a point where it may be hard for me to roster him. Hendricks has to dodge rain and a contact oriented Giants lineup.

If you’re looking for a big bargain – perhaps because you aim to roster Chris Sale, then I could get behind trying $4,700 Jarred Cosart. I see some small things to like in his profile, including a new slider to complement his cutter. I think he’s weeks from polishing his repertoire enough to be fantasy relevant. However, if you can milk 10 points from Cosart plus 30 from Sale for a combined $18,200, that’s a solid value.

Stack Targets: Cosart, Trevor Williams, Sam Gaviglio, Martin Perez, Robert Gsellman, Daniel Norris, Jason Hammel, Tyler Chatwood, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Ricky Nolasco, Julio Teheran

4. Hitters to Use

Evan Gattis plus a bunch of other Astros will have the platoon advantage against a shaky version of Daniel Norris.

Justin Smoak, assuming he plays, has a nitro matchup versus Garza. And DFS pros may be skeptical of his newfound contact abilities. I also like Kevin Pillar.

Julio Teheran has allowed a luck neutral 1.46 HR/9. He’s a fly ball pitcher at a hitter’s park. Invest in any ground ball hitters from the Pirates lineup. I like a Mercer repeat, Josh Harrison, and Josh Bell.

Miguel Sano is in a good spot to batter a soft-tossing version of Chris Tillman. The Orioles righty is missing three tics on the radar gun. Try Max Kepler too.

5. SaberSim Says…

Sale, Morton, Severino, Quintana, and Stroman are the top rated arms. Sure. Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and Sano take top honors among the hitters. I think somebody asked me yesterday why Sano doesn’t appear at the top of the SaberSim hitter lists. Well, here ya go.

6. The Daily Grind Invitational

Kudos go to jjmcgown for tallying over 50 pitching points plus a double donger from Charlie Blackmon. Had he played the $4 DK Four-Seamer, he would have netted $25. Not too shabby. Leaderboard.

We return to DraftKings!