HR/FB Rate Validations Using xHR/FB Rate – The Leaders

For the third week in a row, we once again use Statcast’s Brls/BBE (barrels per batted ball event) as the primary component of my xHR/FB rate, to analyze hitter HR/FB rates. Today, I’ll use xHR/FB rate to validate some of the surprise HR/FB rate leaders. This doesn’t necessarily mean the hitter is going to sustain this pace — their Brls/BBE could certainly decline, and given that it’s likely quite high now, it probably will — but that what has happened so far looks like a legitimate power breakout, rather than a small sample fluke.

Aaron Judge easily leads all qualified hitters in HR/FB right and is sitting in second place (behind Alex Avila of all hitters) in Brls/BBE. He’s second in xHR/FB rate as a result (to Avila again), and I hope no one is doubting him at this point. I still don’t understand why he never showed elite power in the minors, but props to the scouts for expecting immense power as his ceiling. Of course, I don’t think the scouts expected him to reach that ceiling during his first full season! I’m in an enviable situation, as I own him in AL Tout Wars and wonder if I should explore trying to sell. This is an OBP league, so even when his batting average declines, he’ll be worth even more than in standard formats given his double digit walk rate. Thoughts?

It’s too bad that Freddie Freeman is going to miss the next two months after getting hitting with a pitch. We all knew that his Joey Vottoian hitting ability would likely lead to a power spike at some point. It finally did last year and he’s taken another enormous step forward this season. Unfortunately, we have no idea how the wrist injury is going to affect his hitting when he returns.

I think a lot of us thought that Michael Conforto was a nice sleeper, likely to rebound off last year’s disappointing offensive performance, but weren’t too into drafting a minor leaguer. Luckily for him, the injury bug bit and now he’s fifth in plate appearances on the Mets. He has rarely pulled his fly balls, as his Pull% is lowest on this list, but he’s barreling it up at a high clip, so it hasn’t really mattered where on the field he has hit them.

Nice Ryan Zimmerman, go berserk after I hype you as a sleeper for the past two seasons, then give up on you when your team signed Adam Lind. He was never this good when he was healthy during his 20s, so just saying he’s healthy isn’t enough. Zimmerman himself can’t even explain his success! So far, xHR/FB rate validates that he’s been enjoying a real power surge, but how long it lasts is anyone’s guess.

Trey Mancini was never more than a solid power hitter in the minors, but it appears he may be selling out for it now. He has walked just four times, versus 33 strikeouts, which is a significantly higher strikeout rate than he has posted in the minors. He may be going with the old “swing often and swing hard” hitting philosophy, which always seems risky for long-term success. He’s not swinging at much more than the league average rate of pitches outside the zone, so we’ll see how pitchers adjust. I wouldn’t bet on continued success here.

Marcell Ozuna has boosted his Pull% for the second straight year, plus he has pushed his Brls/BBE into double digits for the first time. At 26, he’s at a good age for a power surge, has upped his walk rate into the double digits for the first time, and hasn’t been trading whiffs for power. This feels real.

Isn’t it amazing when a hitter in his first full year who was never much of a power hitter in the minors, but one known more for excellent plate discipline, joins the home run parade? Josh Bell walked more than he struck out last season in about the same number of plate appearances as he has posted at this point, but homered just three times. His plate discipline has regressed, though remains solid, but he has tripled his homer total. The guy never posted higher than a .174 ISO at any minor league stop and posted a double digit HR/FB rate just once. He’s the lowest guy in Brls/BBE on this list, so he’s doing his damage because he’s rarely hitting his flies to center, with the vast majority pulled or the opposite way where the fences are closer.

And there’s that man at the bottom that we’ve talked so much about, Yonder Alonso. I keep kicking myself because I read about the swing changes in the offseason and given how cheap he came in drafts/auctions, really should have taken the plunge. There was literally no downside as you were only paying for what Alonso used to be, which was just passable in AL-Only leagues. He’s added an amazing 20% to his fly ball rate, taking it from 33.3% to 53.5%. Of course, that alone doesn’t explain his HR/FB rate nearly quadrupling, as we’re looking at home runs per fly ball, which isn’t affected by how many fly balls he hits. But it’s clear that this is a totally new Alonso.