HR/FB Rate Validations Using xHR/FB Rate – The Laggards

Yesterday, I used my xHR/FB rate to validate which of the surprise HR/FB rate leaders appear to have legitimately enjoyed a power surge in the early going. Today, I’ll look at the surprising names closer to the bottom of the HR/FB rate leaderboard, all of whom are validated by shockingly low xHR/FB rate marks. Like for the leaders, this doesn’t necessarily mean it’s panic time if you’re an owner, but simply that it appears poor fortune has little to do with the power outage. The batter simply hasn’t been barreling it up like he typically has, for whatever reason.

Man, oh man, has it been excruciating to be an Alex Gordon owner. It’s pretty easy if you’re in a shallow mixed league, as he was probably dropped, and not picked up, weeks ago. Sadly, I’ve kept him in my LABR Mixed starting lineup (15-teamer) all season long. He got the strikeout rate back to pre-2016 levels, but now his fly ball rate is down 10 points from last year and he’s hit for laughably little power. Last year he posted a Brls/BBE of 8.7% and the year before 7.4%, so this is pretty pathetic. Even more bizarre is that he enjoyed a productive enough spring training to suggest he was fully healthy again. Given a death of free agent options, I have no choice but to hope he turns things around. I don’t have an explanation here, but he sure as heck hasn’t been unlucky. He’s just hitting for power like I would be if I were in the league (and I’m just 5’7, 145).

We have to assume that the herniated disk in his back and forearm issues that eventually landed him on the DL are to blame for Adrian Gonzalez’s inability to hit for any power. You wonder if just a couple of weeks off has fully healed him or if he’ll be hobbled all season long. All his other skills are normal, so it’s anyone’s guess whether the health will return enough for him to even be an asset in 12-team mixed leagues (I actually picked him up in my league when he was dropped).

Xander Bogaerts has yet to barrel up a ball! Last season, he more than doubled his Brls/BBE from a lowly 2.4%, and it’s now looking like that was the fluke. This is especially true when you notice in his batted ball profile that he’s back to hitting grounders over 50% of the time, like he did during his powerless 2015. It’s become impossible to determine which version of Bogaerts will show up each season at this point and only a peak into the future could tell us what the rest of the season holds. Since that BABIP can’t possibly stay that high, he’s just not going to be a great shortstop option unless the power returns.

Remember when Gregory Polanco was battling a shoulder issue during spring training? This looks like a classic case of the injury still affecting him. His Brls/BBE is a third of what it was the past two seasons, and his FB% is way down, sitting below 30% for the first time. Difficulty lifting the ball is a classic sign of shoulder problems. Now that he’s on the DL for a hamstring injury, you wonder if this might be a boon to get his shoulder healthy. You never know when he’ll suddenly be healthy, so I’d stay the course and cross your fingers.

Joc Pederson easily owns the highest xHR/FB rate on the list, but he makes it because even that xHR/FB rate is half of his HR/FB rate from last year. His Brls/BBE has been about halved from his last two seasons, and he’s traded a bunch of fly balls for grounders. Since he has attempted just one steal and won’t contribute positive value in batting average, he needs a 20% HR/FB rate to be an asset in shallow leagues. He’s only 25, so perhaps this is just a slow start, and the xHR/FB rate does suggest there’s still power in there, just not at the level we’re used to.

I was just as excited for Alex Bregman’s potential as a power/speed contributor as you were. Okay, maybe a bit less so. But still, even the most bearish of pessimists wouldn’t have seen this lack of power coming. It’s always difficult dealing with young players since we have such a limited track record to establish a baseline from. And it’s not like he has had a huge body of work in the minors either, and recorded just 83 Triple-A plate appearances. Most of the underlying skills look great, with the exception of that sky high IFFB%. It’s anyone’s guess if he continues at this pace the rest of the way or makes the adjustments to put himself on a 20-25 homer pace.

Evan Gattis has never posted a HR/FB rate below 16%, and here he is in the lowly single digits. His xHR/FB rate doesn’t provide much optimism, as his Brls/BBE is about a third of what it was last year and just over half of his 2015 mark. Perhaps sporadic playing time is hampering his ability to get into a rhythm, who knows. Oddly, like some of the others on the list, his underlying skills look excellent, and have actually improved. More walks, fewer whiffs and strikeouts, and a spike in FB%. Unfortunately, because of his murky playing time situation, there’s really nothing actionable. Hold if you own him, and I wouldn’t trying acquiring him if you don’t.

Carlos Gonzalez wasn’t an elite Brls/BBEer last season, but he’s still coming in at just over half of that mark currently. He, too, has upped his walk rate, but everything else is the same, except the curious lack of power. With his history of injuries, you always have to wonder how healthy he is. For what it’s worth, he has played in 18 home games, versus 22 away, so his power stats will surely improve once that evens out.