Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Alford, Pitching Staffs, & Sage Advice

On Friday the Blue Jays called up Anthony Alford. The move surprised me since he struggled in 2016 with a 29% K% in High-A. He was doing better in Double-A this season (17K%, .393 wOBA) but I figured he would follow a progressive advancement with a Tripe-A stint.

Here’s a quick dive into what we know about his possible production. First here are his available prospect grades.

The three sources agree that he is fast (help with Defense and Batting Average), plays above average Defense and has a bad Arm (fantasy irrelevant). The agreements end there. Our Eric Longenhagen is not impressed with his batting eye and thinks he’s below average. The other sources put his hit tool at average to above average. Also, Eric believes Alford has average to plus power while the other sources don’t.

With a range of possible grades, I went with a middle of the pack projection, the 2017 grades from MLB.com. Here are the prospects with simple component grades.

A nice mix of good results (Turner and Polanco) and bad (Williams and Castillo).

Besides the scouting grades, ZiPS projects his 600 plate appearance line to be .206 AVG, 13 HR, and 20 SB. This kind all power and speed, no batting average projection reminds me of Drew Stubbs (Bradley Zimmer is also this hitter type). Some newer comps are Keon Broxton, Michael Taylor, and Carlos Gomez. All of these prospects have struggled to obtain full-time playing time, especially when their batting averages hover near .200.

In all, Alford’s fantasy value comes down to his contact rate.

Tout Wars: Forward Looking Pitching Options

My pitching options this week in Tout Wars were a mess. Before FAAB bidding, I needed to start four of these pitchers.

Adam Wainwright at Rockies
Robbie Ray at Brewers
Mike Clevinger at Reds
Jeff Samardzija at Cubs
Charlie Morton home vs Detroit

What a mess. My team is struggling with ERA (12th), WHIP (14th) and Wins (14th). I need starts to get the Wins but just can’t take too many hits in ERA and WHIP. Additionally, I acquired a couple of dead weight relievers (Blake Treinen and Arodys Vizcaino) while Save hunting (did hit on Justin Wilson) so I could move them. I could add a couple starters, but in Tout Wars, the player must be in the starting lineup for the first week.

I wanted to replace the closers and take away some of the above subpar matchups. I didn’t really meet my goal. The only starters I found I could stomach were Trevor Bauer, David Phelps, Alex Meyer, and Scott Feldman (other owners picked up Tyler Glasnow, Jhoulys Chacin, Brad Peacock, Kyle Freeland, and Junior Guerra).

Bauer went more a bit more than my bids and I ended up with Phelps and Meyer. I liked Phelps as a starter coming into the season and that opinion hasn’t changed. His possible start is in at Anaheim against JC Ramirez, so it’s a winnable game if he throws enough innings.

As for Meyer, I sort of messed up. I thought I could drop anyone I just acquired. I was wrong. Everyone should know your league rules.

Meyer’s start is at Tampa against Matt Andriese. He needs to limit his walks (6.9 BB/9 in season) as his strikeouts have been fine (10.8 K/9) against a patient team. I probably shouldn’t be taking this gamble but he could be a different maker if he finds the strike zone. What could go wrong in just one start? I’ll find out on Thursday.

What could go wrong in just one start? I’ll find out on Thursday.

Relevant articles at Aeon

This past week, Aeon.co published two articles relevant to fantasy baseball. The first article deals with the ‘Dunning-Kruger effect or “the cognitive bias to inflate self-assessment.”

“… our approaches are imperfect, irrational, inept or just plain stupid. The trick is to not be fooled by illusions of superiority and to learn to accurately reevaluate our competence. After all, as Confucius reportedly said, real knowledge is knowing the extent of one’s ignorance.”

And the effect can be illustrated by this graph.

It’s not hard to see examples of Dunning-Kruger occurring in the fantasy community (see current author’s choice to pick up Alex Meyer). Fantasy owners can better understand their limitations. They need to know when they have enough subject knowledge to diverge from the crowd or when the crowd knows best. I find this knowledge key to winning leagues.

Owners or experts can’t be knowledgeable in every aspect of the game. If they say they are, move on quickly. Find the niche experts. Focused experts provided information those general ones don’t have time to investigate.

The other article focuses on Stoicism which is most commonly know from the Serenity Prayer.

God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
Courage to change the things I can,
And wisdom to know the difference.

Or

… if you truly understand the difference between what is and what is not under your control, and act accordingly, you will become psychologically invincible, impervious to the ups and downs of fortune.

Of course, this is far easier said than done. It requires a lot of mindful practice.

I wrote a few hundreds of words but it never came together. Instead, I will keep the message simple, fantasy owners can’t control everything, especially the game action. Owners should just enjoy the game of baseball and not worry if Jake Lamb can hit a home run and break a four-way tie for the fifth spot in the standings.